{
  "record": {
    "id": "gold-2026-09-24",
    "asset": "gold",
    "assetName": "黄金",
    "scope": "digital",
    "date": "2026-09-24",
    "dateLabel": "UTC交易日",
    "title": "黄金 · 2026-09-24 日度研判归档",
    "kind": "日度研判",
    "status": "ai",
    "statusLabel": "含AI分析",
    "summary": "系统研判「偏空」，趋势分 -0.75（置信度 64%），前一交易日为「偏空」（-1.33）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,269.28，日涨跌 -0.54%，日内振幅 1.35%；3 日 -2.37%，5 日 -1.91%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于死叉状态（间距 -0.54%，2026-09-10 死叉，距今 10 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 101.29（+0.19%），美债 10 年期收益率 5.162%（+4.8bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 +4.26%，资金费率日均 +0.0054%（前 7 日 +0.0050%），主动买卖比 0.961。主要偏空因子：美债收益率变化、当日涨跌。",
    "label": "偏空",
    "score": -0.75,
    "version": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
    "href": "/zh/research/archive/gold-2026-09-24/",
    "sourceHref": "/data/gold-ai/2026-09-24.json",
    "currentHref": "/zh/gold/ai/",
    "capturedAt": "2026-10-05T13:28:08Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:34.606Z"
  },
  "sourceSha256": "3780efc96ab8b223e2b921ec11f2c0b41084e857f7a5ddcdca334f2dc6c36cf1",
  "document": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "symbol": "XAU",
    "tradingDate": "2026-09-24",
    "window": {
      "start": "2026-09-24T00:00:00Z",
      "end": "2026-09-25T00:00:00Z",
      "timezone": "UTC"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:34.606Z",
    "market": {
      "venue": "Binance XAUUSDT 永续",
      "open": 4292.3,
      "high": 4306.87,
      "low": 4249.11,
      "close": 4269.28,
      "prevClose": 4292.3,
      "prevDate": "2026-09-23",
      "gapPct": 0,
      "change1dPct": -0.536,
      "change3dPct": -2.366,
      "change5dPct": -1.909,
      "change30dPct": -8.342,
      "amplitudePct": 1.346,
      "volumeXau": 493223.71,
      "quoteVolumeUsdt": 2108971149,
      "volume5dChangePct": -12.44,
      "realizedVolDailyPct": 1.561,
      "realizedVolSamples": 30,
      "logRet1d": -0.0053775250535313774,
      "logRet3d": -0.023949193936925437,
      "logRet5d": -0.019275329566240652,
      "high30d": 4673.5,
      "low30d": 4243.81,
      "tradingDays30d": 22,
      "indexClose": 4266.45,
      "basisPct": 0.066,
      "emaTrend": {
        "ema10": 4333.6,
        "ema20": 4356.75,
        "gapPct": -0.5423,
        "state": "death",
        "lastCross": "death",
        "lastCrossDate": "2026-09-10",
        "barsSinceCross": 10,
        "barsUsed": 115
      }
    },
    "phases": [
      {
        "key": "asia",
        "nameZh": "亚洲时段",
        "hours": "00:00–06:00",
        "open": 4292.3,
        "high": 4306.87,
        "low": 4277.1,
        "close": 4282.92,
        "changePct": -0.219,
        "rangePct": 0.694,
        "volumeXau": 98442.23,
        "volumeSharePct": 20
      },
      {
        "key": "europe",
        "nameZh": "欧洲时段",
        "hours": "06:00–12:00",
        "open": 4283.04,
        "high": 4291.22,
        "low": 4249.11,
        "close": 4269.91,
        "changePct": -0.307,
        "rangePct": 0.983,
        "volumeXau": 145055.6,
        "volumeSharePct": 29.4
      },
      {
        "key": "us",
        "nameZh": "美洲时段",
        "hours": "12:00–18:00",
        "open": 4269.92,
        "high": 4291.96,
        "low": 4250,
        "close": 4268.78,
        "changePct": -0.027,
        "rangePct": 0.983,
        "volumeXau": 188479.82,
        "volumeSharePct": 38.2
      },
      {
        "key": "late",
        "nameZh": "美盘尾段",
        "hours": "18:00–24:00",
        "open": 4268.78,
        "high": 4285.38,
        "low": 4260.74,
        "close": 4269.28,
        "changePct": 0.012,
        "rangePct": 0.577,
        "volumeXau": 61246.06,
        "volumeSharePct": 12.4
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    ],
    "derivatives": {
      "retailLongShort": {
        "start": 4.7571,
        "end": 5.0423,
        "changePct": 6,
        "longPctEnd": 83.45,
        "avg": 4.9258,
        "startAt": "2026-09-24T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-25T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "taker": {
        "ratio": 0.9611,
        "buyVol": 241703.42,
        "sellVol": 251498,
        "hourlyMax": 1.3871,
        "hourlyMin": 0.6017,
        "last": 1.1534,
        "hoursBuyDominant": 9,
        "hours": 24
      },
      "topPositionLongShort": {
        "start": 2.7817,
        "end": 2.9262,
        "changePct": 5.19,
        "longPctEnd": 74.53,
        "avg": 2.7869,
        "startAt": "2026-09-24T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-25T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "funding": {
        "intervalHours": 4,
        "settlements": [
          {
            "at": "2026-09-24T04:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00005294
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-24T08:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00004507
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-24T12:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00005416
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-24T16:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00007881
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-24T20:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00005788
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-25T00:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00003722
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        ],
        "avg": 0.00005435,
        "last": 0.00003722,
        "dayTotal": 0.00032608,
        "prev7dAvg": 0.0000496,
        "prev7dCount": 42,
        "annualizedPct": 11.9
      },
      "openInterest": {
        "start": 115410.032,
        "end": 120327.043,
        "startUsd": 495388330,
        "endUsd": 513701678,
        "change": 4917.011,
        "changePct": 4.26,
        "high": 125861.527,
        "low": 115410.032,
        "startAt": "2026-09-24T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-25T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topAccountLongShort": {
        "start": 5.7114,
        "end": 6.1633,
        "changePct": 7.91,
        "longPctEnd": 86.04,
        "avg": 5.9978,
        "startAt": "2026-09-24T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-25T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      }
    },
    "macro": {
      "dxy": {
        "symbol": "DX-Y.NYB",
        "date": "2026-09-24",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-23",
        "close": 101.29,
        "prev": 101.1,
        "changePct": 0.188,
        "logRet": 0.0018775878037232978,
        "sigmaPct": 0.315,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dPct": 1.068
      },
      "us10y": {
        "symbol": "^TNX",
        "date": "2026-09-24",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-23",
        "close": 5.162,
        "prev": 5.114,
        "changeBp": 4.8,
        "sigmaBp": 4.73,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dBp": 21.5
      }
    },
    "positioning": {
      "cot": {
        "reportDate": "2026-09-15",
        "releasedOn": "2026-09-18",
        "managedMoneyLong": 142394,
        "managedMoneyShort": 9278,
        "managedMoneyNet": 133116,
        "managedMoneyNetChange": -1856,
        "openInterest": 409899,
        "netPctOfOi": 32.5,
        "ageDays": 9
      }
    },
    "score": {
      "configVersion": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
      "trendScore": -0.75,
      "label": "lean_bear",
      "labelZh": "偏空",
      "confidence": 0.64,
      "components": {
        "weightedZ": -0.4676,
        "agreement": 0.487,
        "strength": 0.5,
        "coverage": 1
      },
      "factors": [
        {
          "key": "ret1d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "当日涨跌",
          "weight": 0.22,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.536,
          "z": -0.344,
          "contribution": -0.121
        },
        {
          "key": "mom3d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "3 日动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -2.366,
          "z": -0.886,
          "contribution": -0.113
        },
        {
          "key": "mom5d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "5 日（周）动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -1.909,
          "z": -0.552,
          "contribution": -0.071
        },
        {
          "key": "emaTrend",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "日线 EMA 趋势",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.5423,
          "z": -0.347,
          "contribution": -0.056
        },
        {
          "key": "dxy",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美元指数变化",
          "weight": 0.12,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.188,
          "z": -0.596,
          "contribution": -0.114
        },
        {
          "key": "us10y",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美债收益率变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 4.8,
          "z": -1.015,
          "contribution": -0.13
        },
        {
          "key": "oiChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "持仓量变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 4.26,
          "z": -0.426,
          "contribution": -0.055
        },
        {
          "key": "taker",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "主动买卖比",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.9611,
          "z": -0.778,
          "contribution": -0.1
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00000475,
          "z": 0.119,
          "contribution": 0.008
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingLevel",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率拥挤度",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00005435,
          "z": -0.043,
          "contribution": -0.003
        },
        {
          "key": "retailLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "散户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 6,
          "z": -0.3,
          "contribution": -0.019
        },
        {
          "key": "topLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "大户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 7.91,
          "z": 0.396,
          "contribution": 0.025
        }
      ]
    },
    "trendComparison": {
      "today": {
        "date": "2026-09-24",
        "trendScore": -0.75,
        "label": "lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "偏空",
        "confidence": 0.64
      },
      "yesterday": {
        "date": "2026-09-23",
        "trendScore": -1.33,
        "label": "lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "偏空",
        "confidence": 0.81
      },
      "delta": 0.58
    },
    "dataSummary": "系统研判「偏空」，趋势分 -0.75（置信度 64%），前一交易日为「偏空」（-1.33）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,269.28，日涨跌 -0.54%，日内振幅 1.35%；3 日 -2.37%，5 日 -1.91%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于死叉状态（间距 -0.54%，2026-09-10 死叉，距今 10 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 101.29（+0.19%），美债 10 年期收益率 5.162%（+4.8bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 +4.26%，资金费率日均 +0.0054%（前 7 日 +0.0050%），主动买卖比 0.961。主要偏空因子：美债收益率变化、当日涨跌。",
    "dataBlocks": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "收盘 $4,269.28，UTC 2026-09-24 00:00 开盘 $4,292.30，较前一交易日（2026-09-23）收盘 $4,292.30 -0.54%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日内高 $4,306.87 / 低 $4,249.11，振幅 1.35%；30 日区间 $4,243.81 – $4,673.50",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "动量：3 日 -2.37%，5 日 -1.91%，30 日 -8.34%；30 个交易日日波动率 1.56%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 $4,333.60 / EMA20 $4,356.75，间距 -0.54%（占收盘价），死叉状态（EMA10 在 EMA20 下方）；最近一次交叉：2026-09-10 死叉，距今 10 个交易日",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美元指数 101.10 → 101.29（+0.19%），5 日 +1.07%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美国 10 年期国债收益率 5.114% → 5.162%（+4.8bp），5 日 +21.5bp",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续成交 49.3 万盎司（约 21.09 亿 USDT），近 5 个交易日成交量较前 5 日 -12.44%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续持仓量 11.5 万 → 12.0 万盎司（+4.26%），名义价值约 5.14 亿美元",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "资金费率（每 4 小时结算）日均 +0.0054%，前 7 日均值 +0.0050%，年化约 +11.9%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "主动买卖比 24h 汇总 0.961（买 24.2 万 / 卖 25.1 万盎司），9/24 小时买方占优",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "全市场账户多空比 4.757 → 5.042（+6.00%）；大户账户多空比 5.711 → 6.163（+7.91%）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "CFTC 持仓报告（2026-09-15）：COMEX 黄金管理基金净多 133,116 手，周变化 -1,856 手（周度数据，不计入趋势分）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "亚洲时段（UTC 00:00–06:00）：$4,292.30 → $4,282.92，-0.22%，区间 $4,277.10 – $4,306.87，成交 9.8 万盎司（占全日 20%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "欧洲时段（UTC 06:00–12:00）：$4,283.04 → $4,269.91，-0.31%，区间 $4,249.11 – $4,291.22，成交 14.5 万盎司（占全日 29.4%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美洲时段（UTC 12:00–18:00）：$4,269.92 → $4,268.78，-0.03%，区间 $4,250.00 – $4,291.96，成交 18.8 万盎司（占全日 38.2%），全日放量时段",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "美盘尾段（UTC 18:00–24:00）：$4,268.78 → $4,269.28，+0.01%，区间 $4,260.74 – $4,285.38，成交 6.1 万盎司（占全日 12.4%）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "aiStatus": "ok",
    "outlook": "系统研判为「偏空」，趋势分 -0.75，置信度 0.64；前一交易日趋势分 -1.33、同为「偏空」，空头评分有所收敛但方向未变。Binance XAUUSDT 永续合约收于 $4,269.28，下跌 0.54%，3 日变动 -2.37%、5 日变动 -1.91%，30 日变动 -8.34%。美元指数收于 101.29，上涨 0.19%；10 年期美债收益率收于 5.162%，上行 4.8bp。美元与美债收益率通常与金价呈反向关系，当日二者同步走强，形成宏观压力，但不据此断言涨跌的具体原因。永续合约持仓由 11.5 万盎司增至 12.0 万盎司，资金费率日均 +0.0054%，主动买卖比 0.961。下一交易日可观察日内高点 $4,306.87、低点 $4,249.11，以及 30 日区间 $4,243.81 – $4,673.50 的下沿是否被重新测试。",
    "analysis": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "永续合约开 $4,292.30、高 $4,306.87、低 $4,249.11、收 $4,269.28，下跌 0.54%，振幅 1.35%，收盘贴近日内低位。",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 为 $4,333.60、EMA20 为 $4,356.75，价差占收盘 -0.54%，处于死叉状态；上次死叉为 2026-09-10，已过 10 个交易日。",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美元指数收于 101.29，前值 101.10，上涨 0.19%，5 日变动 +1.07%；美元走强通常对金价形成压力。",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "10 年期美债收益率收于 5.162%，前值 5.114%，上行 4.8bp，5 日变动 +21.5bp；收益率上行通常抬升持有黄金的机会成本。",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "成交 49.3 万盎司、名义成交 21.09 亿 USDT，近 5 日成交较前 5 日变动 -12.44%；持仓由 11.5 万盎司增至 12.0 万盎司（+4.26%），名义价值 5.14 亿美元。",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "CFTC 管理基金净多 133,116 手（报告日 2026-09-15），周变动 -1,856 手，占持仓 32.5%；该周度数据不计入趋势分。",
            "highlight": "grey"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "亚洲时段开 $4,292.30、收 $4,282.92，高 $4,306.87、低 $4,277.10，下跌 0.22%；成交 9.8 万盎司，占全日 20%，冲高后回落。",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "欧洲时段开 $4,283.04、收 $4,269.91，高 $4,291.22、低 $4,249.11，下跌 0.31%；成交 14.5 万盎司，占 29.4%，打出全日低点。",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美洲时段开 $4,269.92、收 $4,268.78，高 $4,291.96、低 $4,250.00，下跌 0.03%；成交 18.8 万盎司，占 38.2%，为四个时段最大，价格近乎持平。",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "美盘尾段开 $4,268.78、收 $4,269.28，高 $4,285.38、低 $4,260.74，上涨 0.01%；成交 6.1 万盎司，占 12.4%，量能最弱、窄幅收平。",
            "highlight": "grey"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "多空博弈",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "空方：收盘下跌 0.54%，3 日与 5 日动量为负，日线仍处死叉；美元上涨 0.19%、收益率上行 4.8bp，主动卖出 25.1 万盎司多于买入 24.2 万盎司。",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "多方：永续合约持仓增加 4.26%，大户多空比由 5.711 升至 6.163（+7.91%），散户多空比升至 5.042，多头账户占比 83.45%，资金费率日均仍为 +0.0054%。",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "综合：趋势分 -0.75。因子贡献中，美债收益率变化 -0.13、当日涨跌 -0.121、美元指数变化 -0.114、3 日动量 -0.113 为主要拖累；资金费率变化 +0.008、大户多空比变化 +0.025 仅小幅对冲。",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "价格下跌而持仓上升，主动买卖比 0.961、买盘占优小时仅 9/24，显示增量仓位更偏向卖出一侧，多头账户占比偏高但未能扭转当日跌势。",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "风险提示",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "美元指数与美债收益率同日走强，且 5 日分别变动 +1.07%、+21.5bp，宏观压力仍在，但数据本身不能说明当日金价下跌的具体原因。",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "收盘 $4,269.28 距 30 日区间下沿 $4,243.81 较近，30 日已实现波动 1.56%；若再测欧洲时段低点 $4,249.11，波动可能放大，此为观察点而非操作指令。",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "散户与大户多空比同日上升，多头账户占比 83.45%，而价格与主动买卖比偏弱，存在仓位拥挤与价格背离；CFTC 为周度背景，不计入趋势分。",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "sources": {
      "perpDaily": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 1d)",
      "perpPhases": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 6h)",
      "indexPrice": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/indexPriceKlines (XAUUSDT)",
      "dxy": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "us10y": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "retailLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "taker": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topPositionLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "funding": "https://www.binance.com",
      "openInterest": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topAccountLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "macro": "Yahoo Finance chart API (DX-Y.NYB, ^TNX)",
      "cot": "https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/resource/72hh-3qpy.json (088691)"
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "missing": [],
      "warnings": []
    }
  },
  "aiMetadata": {
    "model": "grok-4.7",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:55:15.448Z"
  }
}