{
  "record": {
    "id": "gold-2026-09-23",
    "asset": "gold",
    "assetName": "黄金",
    "scope": "digital",
    "date": "2026-09-23",
    "dateLabel": "UTC交易日",
    "title": "黄金 · 2026-09-23 日度研判归档",
    "kind": "日度研判",
    "status": "data",
    "statusLabel": "数据与评分 · AI文字未生成",
    "summary": "系统研判「偏空」，趋势分 -1.33（置信度 81%），前一交易日为「中性偏空」（-0.21）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,292.30，日涨跌 -1.72%，日内振幅 2.13%；3 日 -2.08%，5 日 +0.34%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于死叉状态（间距 -0.42%，2026-09-10 死叉，距今 9 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 101.10（+0.50%），美债 10 年期收益率 5.114%（+14.6bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 +19.04%，资金费率日均 +0.0088%（前 7 日 +0.0045%），主动买卖比 1.036。主要偏多因子：大户多空比变化、主动买卖比；主要偏空因子：当日涨跌、美债收益率变化。",
    "label": "偏空",
    "score": -1.33,
    "version": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
    "href": "/zh/research/archive/gold-2026-09-23/",
    "sourceHref": "/data/gold-ai/2026-09-23.json",
    "currentHref": "/zh/gold/ai/",
    "capturedAt": "2026-10-05T13:28:08Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.390Z"
  },
  "sourceSha256": "febbcdd1c2dc3ead76c54ae9632c8b5b8ee58e185c8aae8b992e9de6b46a7615",
  "document": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "symbol": "XAU",
    "tradingDate": "2026-09-23",
    "window": {
      "start": "2026-09-23T00:00:00Z",
      "end": "2026-09-24T00:00:00Z",
      "timezone": "UTC"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.390Z",
    "market": {
      "venue": "Binance XAUUSDT 永续",
      "open": 4367.27,
      "high": 4372.54,
      "low": 4279.32,
      "close": 4292.3,
      "prevClose": 4367.28,
      "prevDate": "2026-09-22",
      "gapPct": 0,
      "change1dPct": -1.717,
      "change3dPct": -2.084,
      "change5dPct": 0.341,
      "change30dPct": -8.344,
      "amplitudePct": 2.135,
      "volumeXau": 432098.19,
      "quoteVolumeUsdt": 1862250551,
      "volume5dChangePct": -5.1,
      "realizedVolDailyPct": 1.541,
      "realizedVolSamples": 30,
      "logRet1d": -0.017317669881532508,
      "logRet3d": -0.021056709676197917,
      "logRet5d": 0.003402562436628115,
      "high30d": 4700.63,
      "low30d": 4243.81,
      "tradingDays30d": 22,
      "indexClose": 4289.98,
      "basisPct": 0.054,
      "emaTrend": {
        "ema10": 4347.89,
        "ema20": 4365.96,
        "gapPct": -0.4209,
        "state": "death",
        "lastCross": "death",
        "lastCrossDate": "2026-09-10",
        "barsSinceCross": 9,
        "barsUsed": 115
      }
    },
    "phases": [
      {
        "key": "asia",
        "nameZh": "亚洲时段",
        "hours": "00:00–06:00",
        "open": 4367.27,
        "high": 4372.54,
        "low": 4332.24,
        "close": 4338.37,
        "changePct": -0.662,
        "rangePct": 0.923,
        "volumeXau": 76057.88,
        "volumeSharePct": 17.6
      },
      {
        "key": "europe",
        "nameZh": "欧洲时段",
        "hours": "06:00–12:00",
        "open": 4338.37,
        "high": 4340.28,
        "low": 4298.97,
        "close": 4313.52,
        "changePct": -0.573,
        "rangePct": 0.952,
        "volumeXau": 97818.67,
        "volumeSharePct": 22.6
      },
      {
        "key": "us",
        "nameZh": "美洲时段",
        "hours": "12:00–18:00",
        "open": 4313.51,
        "high": 4322.44,
        "low": 4279.32,
        "close": 4297.14,
        "changePct": -0.38,
        "rangePct": 1,
        "volumeXau": 198317.64,
        "volumeSharePct": 45.9
      },
      {
        "key": "late",
        "nameZh": "美盘尾段",
        "hours": "18:00–24:00",
        "open": 4297.14,
        "high": 4298.96,
        "low": 4283.02,
        "close": 4292.3,
        "changePct": -0.113,
        "rangePct": 0.371,
        "volumeXau": 59904,
        "volumeSharePct": 13.9
      }
    ],
    "derivatives": {
      "retailLongShort": {
        "start": 3.5537,
        "end": 4.7571,
        "changePct": 33.86,
        "longPctEnd": 82.63,
        "avg": 4.1251,
        "startAt": "2026-09-23T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-24T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "taker": {
        "ratio": 1.0356,
        "buyVol": 219809.41,
        "sellVol": 212253.48,
        "hourlyMax": 1.4968,
        "hourlyMin": 0.7399,
        "last": 0.9805,
        "hoursBuyDominant": 15,
        "hours": 24
      },
      "topPositionLongShort": {
        "start": 2.5565,
        "end": 2.7817,
        "changePct": 8.81,
        "longPctEnd": 73.56,
        "avg": 2.5058,
        "startAt": "2026-09-23T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-24T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "funding": {
        "intervalHours": 4,
        "settlements": [
          {
            "at": "2026-09-23T04:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.0000408
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-23T08:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00006574
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-23T12:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00009505
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-23T16:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00013121
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-23T20:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00012226
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00007281
          }
        ],
        "avg": 0.00008798,
        "last": 0.00007281,
        "dayTotal": 0.00052787,
        "prev7dAvg": 0.00004485,
        "prev7dCount": 42,
        "annualizedPct": 19.27
      },
      "openInterest": {
        "start": 96953.284,
        "end": 115410.032,
        "startUsd": 423398869,
        "endUsd": 495388330,
        "change": 18456.748,
        "changePct": 19.037,
        "high": 115410.032,
        "low": 96953.284,
        "startAt": "2026-09-23T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-24T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topAccountLongShort": {
        "start": 4.2138,
        "end": 5.7114,
        "changePct": 35.54,
        "longPctEnd": 85.1,
        "avg": 4.9427,
        "startAt": "2026-09-23T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-24T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      }
    },
    "macro": {
      "dxy": {
        "symbol": "DX-Y.NYB",
        "date": "2026-09-23",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-22",
        "close": 101.1,
        "prev": 100.6,
        "changePct": 0.497,
        "logRet": 0.004957868435800662,
        "sigmaPct": 0.304,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dPct": 0.788
      },
      "us10y": {
        "symbol": "^TNX",
        "date": "2026-09-23",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-22",
        "close": 5.114,
        "prev": 4.968,
        "changeBp": 14.6,
        "sigmaBp": 4.01,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dBp": 10.8
      }
    },
    "positioning": {
      "cot": {
        "reportDate": "2026-09-15",
        "releasedOn": "2026-09-18",
        "managedMoneyLong": 142394,
        "managedMoneyShort": 9278,
        "managedMoneyNet": 133116,
        "managedMoneyNetChange": -1856,
        "openInterest": 409899,
        "netPctOfOi": 32.5,
        "ageDays": 8
      }
    },
    "score": {
      "configVersion": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
      "trendScore": -1.33,
      "label": "lean_bear",
      "labelZh": "偏空",
      "confidence": 0.81,
      "components": {
        "weightedZ": -0.8296,
        "agreement": 0.646,
        "strength": 0.887,
        "coverage": 1
      },
      "factors": [
        {
          "key": "ret1d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "当日涨跌",
          "weight": 0.22,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -1.717,
          "z": -1.124,
          "contribution": -0.396
        },
        {
          "key": "mom3d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "3 日动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -2.084,
          "z": -0.789,
          "contribution": -0.101
        },
        {
          "key": "mom5d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "5 日（周）动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.341,
          "z": 0.099,
          "contribution": 0.013
        },
        {
          "key": "emaTrend",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "日线 EMA 趋势",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.4209,
          "z": -0.273,
          "contribution": -0.044
        },
        {
          "key": "dxy",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美元指数变化",
          "weight": 0.12,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.497,
          "z": -1.631,
          "contribution": -0.313
        },
        {
          "key": "us10y",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美债收益率变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 14.6,
          "z": -3,
          "contribution": -0.384
        },
        {
          "key": "oiChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "持仓量变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 19.037,
          "z": -1.904,
          "contribution": -0.244
        },
        {
          "key": "taker",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "主动买卖比",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 1.0356,
          "z": 0.712,
          "contribution": 0.091
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00004313,
          "z": 1.078,
          "contribution": 0.069
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingLevel",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率拥挤度",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00008798,
          "z": -0.38,
          "contribution": -0.024
        },
        {
          "key": "retailLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "散户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 33.86,
          "z": -1.693,
          "contribution": -0.108
        },
        {
          "key": "topLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "大户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 35.54,
          "z": 1.777,
          "contribution": 0.114
        }
      ]
    },
    "trendComparison": {
      "today": {
        "date": "2026-09-23",
        "trendScore": -1.33,
        "label": "lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "偏空",
        "confidence": 0.81
      },
      "yesterday": {
        "date": "2026-09-22",
        "trendScore": -0.21,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "中性偏空",
        "confidence": 0.43
      },
      "delta": -1.12
    },
    "dataSummary": "系统研判「偏空」，趋势分 -1.33（置信度 81%），前一交易日为「中性偏空」（-0.21）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,292.30，日涨跌 -1.72%，日内振幅 2.13%；3 日 -2.08%，5 日 +0.34%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于死叉状态（间距 -0.42%，2026-09-10 死叉，距今 9 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 101.10（+0.50%），美债 10 年期收益率 5.114%（+14.6bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 +19.04%，资金费率日均 +0.0088%（前 7 日 +0.0045%），主动买卖比 1.036。主要偏多因子：大户多空比变化、主动买卖比；主要偏空因子：当日涨跌、美债收益率变化。",
    "dataBlocks": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "收盘 $4,292.30，UTC 2026-09-23 00:00 开盘 $4,367.27，较前一交易日（2026-09-22）收盘 $4,367.28 -1.72%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日内高 $4,372.54 / 低 $4,279.32，振幅 2.13%；30 日区间 $4,243.81 – $4,700.63",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "动量：3 日 -2.08%，5 日 +0.34%，30 日 -8.34%；30 个交易日日波动率 1.54%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 $4,347.89 / EMA20 $4,365.96，间距 -0.42%（占收盘价），死叉状态（EMA10 在 EMA20 下方）；最近一次交叉：2026-09-10 死叉，距今 9 个交易日",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美元指数 100.60 → 101.10（+0.50%），5 日 +0.79%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美国 10 年期国债收益率 4.968% → 5.114%（+14.6bp），5 日 +10.8bp",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续成交 43.2 万盎司（约 18.62 亿 USDT），近 5 个交易日成交量较前 5 日 -5.10%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续持仓量 9.7 万 → 11.5 万盎司（+19.04%），名义价值约 4.95 亿美元",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "资金费率（每 4 小时结算）日均 +0.0088%，前 7 日均值 +0.0045%，年化约 +19.3%",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "主动买卖比 24h 汇总 1.036（买 22.0 万 / 卖 21.2 万盎司），15/24 小时买方占优",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "全市场账户多空比 3.554 → 4.757（+33.86%）；大户账户多空比 4.214 → 5.711（+35.54%）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "CFTC 持仓报告（2026-09-15）：COMEX 黄金管理基金净多 133,116 手，周变化 -1,856 手（周度数据，不计入趋势分）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "亚洲时段（UTC 00:00–06:00）：$4,367.27 → $4,338.37，-0.66%，区间 $4,332.24 – $4,372.54，成交 7.6 万盎司（占全日 17.6%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "欧洲时段（UTC 06:00–12:00）：$4,338.37 → $4,313.52，-0.57%，区间 $4,298.97 – $4,340.28，成交 9.8 万盎司（占全日 22.6%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美洲时段（UTC 12:00–18:00）：$4,313.51 → $4,297.14，-0.38%，区间 $4,279.32 – $4,322.44，成交 19.8 万盎司（占全日 45.9%），全日放量时段",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美盘尾段（UTC 18:00–24:00）：$4,297.14 → $4,292.30，-0.11%，区间 $4,283.02 – $4,298.96，成交 6.0 万盎司（占全日 13.9%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "aiStatus": "pending",
    "outlook": null,
    "analysis": null,
    "sources": {
      "perpDaily": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 1d)",
      "perpPhases": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 6h)",
      "indexPrice": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/indexPriceKlines (XAUUSDT)",
      "dxy": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "us10y": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "retailLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "taker": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topPositionLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "funding": "https://www.binance.com",
      "openInterest": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topAccountLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "macro": "Yahoo Finance chart API (DX-Y.NYB, ^TNX)",
      "cot": "https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/resource/72hh-3qpy.json (088691)"
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "missing": [],
      "warnings": []
    }
  },
  "aiMetadata": {
    "model": "grok-4.7",
    "generatedAt": null
  }
}