{
  "record": {
    "id": "gold-2026-09-22",
    "asset": "gold",
    "assetName": "黄金",
    "scope": "digital",
    "date": "2026-09-22",
    "dateLabel": "UTC交易日",
    "title": "黄金 · 2026-09-22 日度研判归档",
    "kind": "日度研判",
    "status": "data",
    "statusLabel": "数据与评分 · AI文字未生成",
    "summary": "系统研判「中性偏空」，趋势分 -0.21（置信度 43%），前一交易日为「中性偏多」（+0.25）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,367.28，日涨跌 -0.13%，日内振幅 1.92%；3 日 +0.34%，5 日 +1.83%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于死叉状态（间距 -0.31%，2026-09-10 死叉，距今 8 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 100.60（+0.17%），美债 10 年期收益率 4.968%（+0.5bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 +3.29%，资金费率日均 +0.0059%（前 7 日 +0.0044%），主动买卖比 0.960。主要偏多因子：5 日（周）动量；主要偏空因子：美元指数变化、主动买卖比。",
    "label": "中性偏空",
    "score": -0.21,
    "version": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
    "href": "/zh/research/archive/gold-2026-09-22/",
    "sourceHref": "/data/gold-ai/2026-09-22.json",
    "currentHref": "/zh/gold/ai/",
    "capturedAt": "2026-10-05T13:28:08Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.388Z"
  },
  "sourceSha256": "62226b4d74ba3e6f7fe9c4ee71a5f669ce0f525fb436d01f8f0773848fcf33c1",
  "document": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "symbol": "XAU",
    "tradingDate": "2026-09-22",
    "window": {
      "start": "2026-09-22T00:00:00Z",
      "end": "2026-09-23T00:00:00Z",
      "timezone": "UTC"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.388Z",
    "market": {
      "venue": "Binance XAUUSDT 永续",
      "open": 4372.76,
      "high": 4379.53,
      "low": 4295.56,
      "close": 4367.28,
      "prevClose": 4372.76,
      "prevDate": "2026-09-21",
      "gapPct": 0,
      "change1dPct": -0.125,
      "change3dPct": 0.343,
      "change5dPct": 1.826,
      "change30dPct": -5.384,
      "amplitudePct": 1.92,
      "volumeXau": 540761.77,
      "quoteVolumeUsdt": 2345510586,
      "volume5dChangePct": 27.91,
      "realizedVolDailyPct": 1.546,
      "realizedVolSamples": 30,
      "logRet1d": -0.0012539990018614988,
      "logRet3d": 0.0034198653688232673,
      "logRet5d": 0.01809844195324273,
      "high30d": 4700.63,
      "low30d": 4243.81,
      "tradingDays30d": 22,
      "indexClose": 4365.38,
      "basisPct": 0.044,
      "emaTrend": {
        "ema10": 4360.24,
        "ema20": 4373.71,
        "gapPct": -0.3084,
        "state": "death",
        "lastCross": "death",
        "lastCrossDate": "2026-09-10",
        "barsSinceCross": 8,
        "barsUsed": 115
      }
    },
    "phases": [
      {
        "key": "asia",
        "nameZh": "亚洲时段",
        "hours": "00:00–06:00",
        "open": 4372.76,
        "high": 4379.53,
        "low": 4320.44,
        "close": 4327.76,
        "changePct": -1.029,
        "rangePct": 1.351,
        "volumeXau": 113545.64,
        "volumeSharePct": 21
      },
      {
        "key": "europe",
        "nameZh": "欧洲时段",
        "hours": "06:00–12:00",
        "open": 4327.76,
        "high": 4341.92,
        "low": 4295.56,
        "close": 4327.02,
        "changePct": -0.017,
        "rangePct": 1.071,
        "volumeXau": 190532.65,
        "volumeSharePct": 35.2
      },
      {
        "key": "us",
        "nameZh": "美洲时段",
        "hours": "12:00–18:00",
        "open": 4327.01,
        "high": 4356.6,
        "low": 4319.44,
        "close": 4354.67,
        "changePct": 0.639,
        "rangePct": 0.859,
        "volumeXau": 164945.26,
        "volumeSharePct": 30.5
      },
      {
        "key": "late",
        "nameZh": "美盘尾段",
        "hours": "18:00–24:00",
        "open": 4354.67,
        "high": 4373.53,
        "low": 4351.52,
        "close": 4367.28,
        "changePct": 0.29,
        "rangePct": 0.505,
        "volumeXau": 71738.22,
        "volumeSharePct": 13.3
      }
    ],
    "derivatives": {
      "retailLongShort": {
        "start": 3.4563,
        "end": 3.5537,
        "changePct": 2.82,
        "longPctEnd": 78.04,
        "avg": 3.6936,
        "startAt": "2026-09-22T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-23T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topPositionLongShort": {
        "start": 2.5326,
        "end": 2.5565,
        "changePct": 0.94,
        "longPctEnd": 71.88,
        "avg": 2.4907,
        "startAt": "2026-09-22T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-23T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "taker": {
        "ratio": 0.9603,
        "buyVol": 264879.54,
        "sellVol": 275829.06,
        "hourlyMax": 1.2501,
        "hourlyMin": 0.6238,
        "last": 0.9734,
        "hoursBuyDominant": 10,
        "hours": 24
      },
      "funding": {
        "intervalHours": 4,
        "settlements": [
          {
            "at": "2026-09-22T04:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00004762
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-22T08:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00005727
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-22T12:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00004122
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-22T16:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00007506
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-22T20:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00008584
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-23T00:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00004629
          }
        ],
        "avg": 0.00005888,
        "last": 0.00004629,
        "dayTotal": 0.0003533,
        "prev7dAvg": 0.00004412,
        "prev7dCount": 42,
        "annualizedPct": 12.9
      },
      "openInterest": {
        "start": 93867.049,
        "end": 96953.284,
        "startUsd": 410458077,
        "endUsd": 423398869,
        "change": 3086.235,
        "changePct": 3.288,
        "high": 103186.541,
        "low": 93867.049,
        "startAt": "2026-09-22T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-23T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topAccountLongShort": {
        "start": 3.9334,
        "end": 4.2138,
        "changePct": 7.13,
        "longPctEnd": 80.82,
        "avg": 4.3429,
        "startAt": "2026-09-22T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-23T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      }
    },
    "macro": {
      "dxy": {
        "symbol": "DX-Y.NYB",
        "date": "2026-09-22",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-21",
        "close": 100.6,
        "prev": 100.43,
        "changePct": 0.169,
        "logRet": 0.001691272053917379,
        "sigmaPct": 0.302,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dPct": 0.953
      },
      "us10y": {
        "symbol": "^TNX",
        "date": "2026-09-22",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-21",
        "close": 4.968,
        "prev": 4.963,
        "changeBp": 0.5,
        "sigmaBp": 4.04,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dBp": -2.8
      }
    },
    "positioning": {
      "cot": {
        "reportDate": "2026-09-15",
        "releasedOn": "2026-09-18",
        "managedMoneyLong": 142394,
        "managedMoneyShort": 9278,
        "managedMoneyNet": 133116,
        "managedMoneyNetChange": -1856,
        "openInterest": 409899,
        "netPctOfOi": 32.5,
        "ageDays": 7
      }
    },
    "score": {
      "configVersion": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
      "trendScore": -0.21,
      "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
      "labelZh": "中性偏空",
      "confidence": 0.43,
      "components": {
        "weightedZ": -0.1327,
        "agreement": 0.214,
        "strength": 0.14,
        "coverage": 1
      },
      "factors": [
        {
          "key": "ret1d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "当日涨跌",
          "weight": 0.22,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.125,
          "z": -0.081,
          "contribution": -0.029
        },
        {
          "key": "mom3d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "3 日动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.343,
          "z": 0.128,
          "contribution": 0.016
        },
        {
          "key": "mom5d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "5 日（周）动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 1.826,
          "z": 0.524,
          "contribution": 0.067
        },
        {
          "key": "emaTrend",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "日线 EMA 趋势",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.3084,
          "z": -0.199,
          "contribution": -0.032
        },
        {
          "key": "dxy",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美元指数变化",
          "weight": 0.12,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.169,
          "z": -0.56,
          "contribution": -0.108
        },
        {
          "key": "us10y",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美债收益率变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.5,
          "z": -0.124,
          "contribution": -0.016
        },
        {
          "key": "oiChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "持仓量变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 3.288,
          "z": -0.329,
          "contribution": -0.042
        },
        {
          "key": "taker",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "主动买卖比",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.9603,
          "z": -0.794,
          "contribution": -0.102
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00001476,
          "z": 0.369,
          "contribution": 0.024
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingLevel",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率拥挤度",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00005888,
          "z": -0.089,
          "contribution": -0.006
        },
        {
          "key": "retailLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "散户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 2.82,
          "z": -0.141,
          "contribution": -0.009
        },
        {
          "key": "topLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "大户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 7.13,
          "z": 0.356,
          "contribution": 0.023
        }
      ]
    },
    "trendComparison": {
      "today": {
        "date": "2026-09-22",
        "trendScore": -0.21,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "中性偏空",
        "confidence": 0.43
      },
      "yesterday": {
        "date": "2026-09-21",
        "trendScore": 0.25,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bull",
        "labelZh": "中性偏多",
        "confidence": 0.49
      },
      "delta": -0.46
    },
    "dataSummary": "系统研判「中性偏空」，趋势分 -0.21（置信度 43%），前一交易日为「中性偏多」（+0.25）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,367.28，日涨跌 -0.13%，日内振幅 1.92%；3 日 +0.34%，5 日 +1.83%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于死叉状态（间距 -0.31%，2026-09-10 死叉，距今 8 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 100.60（+0.17%），美债 10 年期收益率 4.968%（+0.5bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 +3.29%，资金费率日均 +0.0059%（前 7 日 +0.0044%），主动买卖比 0.960。主要偏多因子：5 日（周）动量；主要偏空因子：美元指数变化、主动买卖比。",
    "dataBlocks": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "收盘 $4,367.28，UTC 2026-09-22 00:00 开盘 $4,372.76，较前一交易日（2026-09-21）收盘 $4,372.76 -0.13%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "日内高 $4,379.53 / 低 $4,295.56，振幅 1.92%；30 日区间 $4,243.81 – $4,700.63",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "动量：3 日 +0.34%，5 日 +1.83%，30 日 -5.38%；30 个交易日日波动率 1.55%",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 $4,360.24 / EMA20 $4,373.71，间距 -0.31%（占收盘价），死叉状态（EMA10 在 EMA20 下方）；最近一次交叉：2026-09-10 死叉，距今 8 个交易日",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美元指数 100.43 → 100.60（+0.17%），5 日 +0.95%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美国 10 年期国债收益率 4.963% → 4.968%（+0.5bp），5 日 -2.8bp",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续成交 54.1 万盎司（约 23.46 亿 USDT），近 5 个交易日成交量较前 5 日 +27.91%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续持仓量 9.4 万 → 9.7 万盎司（+3.29%），名义价值约 4.23 亿美元",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "资金费率（每 4 小时结算）日均 +0.0059%，前 7 日均值 +0.0044%，年化约 +12.9%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "主动买卖比 24h 汇总 0.960（买 26.5 万 / 卖 27.6 万盎司），10/24 小时买方占优",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "全市场账户多空比 3.456 → 3.554（+2.82%）；大户账户多空比 3.933 → 4.214（+7.13%）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "CFTC 持仓报告（2026-09-15）：COMEX 黄金管理基金净多 133,116 手，周变化 -1,856 手（周度数据，不计入趋势分）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "亚洲时段（UTC 00:00–06:00）：$4,372.76 → $4,327.76，-1.03%，区间 $4,320.44 – $4,379.53，成交 11.4 万盎司（占全日 21%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "欧洲时段（UTC 06:00–12:00）：$4,327.76 → $4,327.02，-0.02%，区间 $4,295.56 – $4,341.92，成交 19.1 万盎司（占全日 35.2%），全日放量时段",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "美洲时段（UTC 12:00–18:00）：$4,327.01 → $4,354.67，+0.64%，区间 $4,319.44 – $4,356.60，成交 16.5 万盎司（占全日 30.5%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "美盘尾段（UTC 18:00–24:00）：$4,354.67 → $4,367.28，+0.29%，区间 $4,351.52 – $4,373.53，成交 7.2 万盎司（占全日 13.3%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "aiStatus": "pending",
    "outlook": null,
    "analysis": null,
    "sources": {
      "perpDaily": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 1d)",
      "perpPhases": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 6h)",
      "indexPrice": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/indexPriceKlines (XAUUSDT)",
      "dxy": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "us10y": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "retailLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topPositionLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "taker": "https://www.binance.com",
      "funding": "https://www.binance.com",
      "openInterest": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topAccountLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "macro": "Yahoo Finance chart API (DX-Y.NYB, ^TNX)",
      "cot": "https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/resource/72hh-3qpy.json (088691)"
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "missing": [],
      "warnings": []
    }
  },
  "aiMetadata": {
    "model": "grok-4.7",
    "generatedAt": null
  }
}