{
  "record": {
    "id": "gold-2026-09-21",
    "asset": "gold",
    "assetName": "黄金",
    "scope": "digital",
    "date": "2026-09-21",
    "dateLabel": "UTC交易日",
    "title": "黄金 · 2026-09-21 日度研判归档",
    "kind": "日度研判",
    "status": "data",
    "statusLabel": "数据与评分 · AI文字未生成",
    "summary": "系统研判「中性偏多」，趋势分 +0.25（置信度 49%），前一交易日为「中性偏空」（-0.11）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,372.76，日涨跌 -0.25%，日内振幅 1.40%；3 日 +2.22%，5 日 +1.86%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于死叉状态（间距 -0.36%，2026-09-10 死叉，距今 7 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 100.43（+0.21%），美债 10 年期收益率 4.963%（-3.5bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 -6.92%，资金费率日均 +0.0071%（前 7 日 +0.0051%），主动买卖比 1.021。主要偏多因子：美债收益率变化、3 日动量；主要偏空因子：美元指数变化、散户多空比变化。",
    "label": "中性偏多",
    "score": 0.25,
    "version": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
    "href": "/zh/research/archive/gold-2026-09-21/",
    "sourceHref": "/data/gold-ai/2026-09-21.json",
    "currentHref": "/zh/gold/ai/",
    "capturedAt": "2026-10-05T13:28:08Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.386Z"
  },
  "sourceSha256": "1359f5f9f6218984dccf1b2c8549950d9ff7d970102d6fa8371f1be19fa4ad1d",
  "document": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "symbol": "XAU",
    "tradingDate": "2026-09-21",
    "window": {
      "start": "2026-09-21T00:00:00Z",
      "end": "2026-09-22T00:00:00Z",
      "timezone": "UTC"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.386Z",
    "market": {
      "venue": "Binance XAUUSDT 永续",
      "open": 4376.99,
      "high": 4388.25,
      "low": 4327.11,
      "close": 4372.76,
      "prevClose": 4383.64,
      "prevDate": "2026-09-18",
      "gapPct": -0.152,
      "change1dPct": -0.248,
      "change3dPct": 2.222,
      "change5dPct": 1.863,
      "change30dPct": -5.265,
      "amplitudePct": 1.395,
      "volumeXau": 491032.5,
      "quoteVolumeUsdt": 2139625884,
      "volume5dChangePct": 18.35,
      "realizedVolDailyPct": 1.562,
      "realizedVolSamples": 30,
      "logRet1d": -0.0024850407928039015,
      "logRet3d": 0.02197423132002209,
      "logRet5d": 0.01845751748823519,
      "high30d": 4700.63,
      "low30d": 4243.81,
      "tradingDays30d": 21,
      "indexClose": 4370.36,
      "basisPct": 0.055,
      "emaTrend": {
        "ema10": 4358.68,
        "ema20": 4374.39,
        "gapPct": -0.3593,
        "state": "death",
        "lastCross": "death",
        "lastCrossDate": "2026-09-10",
        "barsSinceCross": 7,
        "barsUsed": 115
      }
    },
    "phases": [
      {
        "key": "asia",
        "nameZh": "亚洲时段",
        "hours": "00:00–06:00",
        "open": 4376.99,
        "high": 4388.25,
        "low": 4353.28,
        "close": 4355.25,
        "changePct": -0.497,
        "rangePct": 0.799,
        "volumeXau": 117149.9,
        "volumeSharePct": 23.9
      },
      {
        "key": "europe",
        "nameZh": "欧洲时段",
        "hours": "06:00–12:00",
        "open": 4355.25,
        "high": 4374.77,
        "low": 4345,
        "close": 4372.9,
        "changePct": 0.405,
        "rangePct": 0.684,
        "volumeXau": 119487.8,
        "volumeSharePct": 24.3
      },
      {
        "key": "us",
        "nameZh": "美洲时段",
        "hours": "12:00–18:00",
        "open": 4372.89,
        "high": 4378.68,
        "low": 4327.11,
        "close": 4347.66,
        "changePct": -0.577,
        "rangePct": 1.179,
        "volumeXau": 196181.87,
        "volumeSharePct": 40
      },
      {
        "key": "late",
        "nameZh": "美盘尾段",
        "hours": "18:00–24:00",
        "open": 4347.67,
        "high": 4374.87,
        "low": 4330.89,
        "close": 4372.76,
        "changePct": 0.577,
        "rangePct": 1.012,
        "volumeXau": 58212.93,
        "volumeSharePct": 11.9
      }
    ],
    "derivatives": {
      "retailLongShort": {
        "start": 2.8715,
        "end": 3.4563,
        "changePct": 20.37,
        "longPctEnd": 77.56,
        "avg": 3.1643,
        "startAt": "2026-09-21T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-22T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topPositionLongShort": {
        "start": 2.3765,
        "end": 2.5326,
        "changePct": 6.57,
        "longPctEnd": 71.69,
        "avg": 2.3915,
        "startAt": "2026-09-21T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-22T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "taker": {
        "ratio": 1.0209,
        "buyVol": 248047.05,
        "sellVol": 242971.95,
        "hourlyMax": 1.2725,
        "hourlyMin": 0.8378,
        "last": 1.2725,
        "hoursBuyDominant": 15,
        "hours": 24
      },
      "openInterest": {
        "start": 100845.97,
        "end": 93867.049,
        "startUsd": 441379942,
        "endUsd": 410458077,
        "change": -6978.921,
        "changePct": -6.92,
        "high": 105964.597,
        "low": 93809.013,
        "startAt": "2026-09-21T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-22T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topAccountLongShort": {
        "start": 2.9904,
        "end": 3.9334,
        "changePct": 31.53,
        "longPctEnd": 79.73,
        "avg": 3.4871,
        "startAt": "2026-09-21T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-22T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "funding": {
        "intervalHours": 4,
        "settlements": [
          {
            "at": "2026-09-21T04:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00011954
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-21T08:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00010762
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-21T12:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00006305
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-21T16:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00007029
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-21T20:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00006643
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0
          }
        ],
        "avg": 0.00007116,
        "last": 0,
        "dayTotal": 0.00042693,
        "prev7dAvg": 0.000051,
        "prev7dCount": 42,
        "annualizedPct": 15.58
      }
    },
    "macro": {
      "dxy": {
        "symbol": "DX-Y.NYB",
        "date": "2026-09-21",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-18",
        "close": 100.43,
        "prev": 100.22,
        "changePct": 0.21,
        "logRet": 0.0020931887321258727,
        "sigmaPct": 0.302,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dPct": 0.975
      },
      "us10y": {
        "symbol": "^TNX",
        "date": "2026-09-21",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-18",
        "close": 4.963,
        "prev": 4.998,
        "changeBp": -3.5,
        "sigmaBp": 3.98,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dBp": 0.2
      }
    },
    "positioning": {
      "cot": {
        "reportDate": "2026-09-15",
        "releasedOn": "2026-09-18",
        "managedMoneyLong": 142394,
        "managedMoneyShort": 9278,
        "managedMoneyNet": 133116,
        "managedMoneyNetChange": -1856,
        "openInterest": 409899,
        "netPctOfOi": 32.5,
        "ageDays": 6
      }
    },
    "score": {
      "configVersion": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
      "trendScore": 0.25,
      "label": "neutral_lean_bull",
      "labelZh": "中性偏多",
      "confidence": 0.49,
      "components": {
        "weightedZ": 0.1592,
        "agreement": 0.326,
        "strength": 0.167,
        "coverage": 1
      },
      "factors": [
        {
          "key": "ret1d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "当日涨跌",
          "weight": 0.22,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.248,
          "z": -0.159,
          "contribution": -0.056
        },
        {
          "key": "mom3d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "3 日动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 2.222,
          "z": 0.812,
          "contribution": 0.104
        },
        {
          "key": "mom5d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "5 日（周）动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 1.863,
          "z": 0.528,
          "contribution": 0.068
        },
        {
          "key": "emaTrend",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "日线 EMA 趋势",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.3593,
          "z": -0.23,
          "contribution": -0.037
        },
        {
          "key": "dxy",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美元指数变化",
          "weight": 0.12,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.21,
          "z": -0.693,
          "contribution": -0.133
        },
        {
          "key": "us10y",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美债收益率变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -3.5,
          "z": 0.879,
          "contribution": 0.113
        },
        {
          "key": "oiChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "持仓量变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -6.92,
          "z": 0.692,
          "contribution": 0.089
        },
        {
          "key": "taker",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "主动买卖比",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 1.0209,
          "z": 0.418,
          "contribution": 0.054
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00002016,
          "z": 0.504,
          "contribution": 0.032
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingLevel",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率拥挤度",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00007116,
          "z": -0.212,
          "contribution": -0.014
        },
        {
          "key": "retailLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "散户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 20.37,
          "z": -1.018,
          "contribution": -0.065
        },
        {
          "key": "topLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "大户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 31.53,
          "z": 1.577,
          "contribution": 0.101
        }
      ]
    },
    "trendComparison": {
      "today": {
        "date": "2026-09-21",
        "trendScore": 0.25,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bull",
        "labelZh": "中性偏多",
        "confidence": 0.49
      },
      "yesterday": {
        "date": "2026-09-18",
        "trendScore": -0.11,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "中性偏空",
        "confidence": 0.43
      },
      "delta": 0.36
    },
    "dataSummary": "系统研判「中性偏多」，趋势分 +0.25（置信度 49%），前一交易日为「中性偏空」（-0.11）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,372.76，日涨跌 -0.25%，日内振幅 1.40%；3 日 +2.22%，5 日 +1.86%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于死叉状态（间距 -0.36%，2026-09-10 死叉，距今 7 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 100.43（+0.21%），美债 10 年期收益率 4.963%（-3.5bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 -6.92%，资金费率日均 +0.0071%（前 7 日 +0.0051%），主动买卖比 1.021。主要偏多因子：美债收益率变化、3 日动量；主要偏空因子：美元指数变化、散户多空比变化。",
    "dataBlocks": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "收盘 $4,372.76，UTC 2026-09-21 00:00 开盘 $4,376.99，较前一交易日（2026-09-18）收盘 $4,383.64 -0.25%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日内高 $4,388.25 / 低 $4,327.11，振幅 1.40%；30 日区间 $4,243.81 – $4,700.63",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "动量：3 日 +2.22%，5 日 +1.86%，30 日 -5.26%；30 个交易日日波动率 1.56%",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 $4,358.68 / EMA20 $4,374.39，间距 -0.36%（占收盘价），死叉状态（EMA10 在 EMA20 下方）；最近一次交叉：2026-09-10 死叉，距今 7 个交易日",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美元指数 100.22 → 100.43（+0.21%），5 日 +0.97%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美国 10 年期国债收益率 4.998% → 4.963%（-3.5bp），5 日 +0.2bp",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续成交 49.1 万盎司（约 21.40 亿 USDT），近 5 个交易日成交量较前 5 日 +18.35%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续持仓量 10.1 万 → 9.4 万盎司（-6.92%），名义价值约 4.10 亿美元",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "资金费率（每 4 小时结算）日均 +0.0071%，前 7 日均值 +0.0051%，年化约 +15.6%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "主动买卖比 24h 汇总 1.021（买 24.8 万 / 卖 24.3 万盎司），15/24 小时买方占优",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "全市场账户多空比 2.872 → 3.456（+20.37%）；大户账户多空比 2.990 → 3.933（+31.53%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "CFTC 持仓报告（2026-09-15）：COMEX 黄金管理基金净多 133,116 手，周变化 -1,856 手（周度数据，不计入趋势分）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "亚洲时段（UTC 00:00–06:00）：$4,376.99 → $4,355.25，-0.50%，区间 $4,353.28 – $4,388.25，成交 11.7 万盎司（占全日 23.9%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "欧洲时段（UTC 06:00–12:00）：$4,355.25 → $4,372.90，+0.41%，区间 $4,345.00 – $4,374.77，成交 11.9 万盎司（占全日 24.3%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "美洲时段（UTC 12:00–18:00）：$4,372.89 → $4,347.66，-0.58%，区间 $4,327.11 – $4,378.68，成交 19.6 万盎司（占全日 40%），全日放量时段",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美盘尾段（UTC 18:00–24:00）：$4,347.67 → $4,372.76，+0.58%，区间 $4,330.89 – $4,374.87，成交 5.8 万盎司（占全日 11.9%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "aiStatus": "pending",
    "outlook": null,
    "analysis": null,
    "sources": {
      "perpDaily": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 1d)",
      "perpPhases": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 6h)",
      "indexPrice": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/indexPriceKlines (XAUUSDT)",
      "dxy": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "us10y": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "retailLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topPositionLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "taker": "https://www.binance.com",
      "openInterest": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topAccountLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "funding": "https://www.binance.com",
      "macro": "Yahoo Finance chart API (DX-Y.NYB, ^TNX)",
      "cot": "https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/resource/72hh-3qpy.json (088691)"
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "missing": [],
      "warnings": []
    }
  },
  "aiMetadata": {
    "model": "grok-4.7",
    "generatedAt": null
  }
}