{
  "record": {
    "id": "gold-2026-09-18",
    "asset": "gold",
    "assetName": "黄金",
    "scope": "digital",
    "date": "2026-09-18",
    "dateLabel": "UTC交易日",
    "title": "黄金 · 2026-09-18 日度研判归档",
    "kind": "日度研判",
    "status": "data",
    "statusLabel": "数据与评分 · AI文字未生成",
    "summary": "系统研判「中性偏空」，趋势分 -0.11（置信度 43%），前一交易日为「中性偏多」（+0.37）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,383.64，日涨跌 +0.72%，日内振幅 1.49%；3 日 +2.21%，5 日 +0.61%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于死叉状态（间距 -0.43%，2026-09-10 死叉，距今 6 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 100.22（0.00%），美债 10 年期收益率 4.998%（+5.1bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 -7.06%，资金费率日均 +0.0080%（前 7 日 +0.0049%），主动买卖比 0.954。主要偏多因子：当日涨跌、3 日动量；主要偏空因子：美债收益率变化、主动买卖比。",
    "label": "中性偏空",
    "score": -0.11,
    "version": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
    "href": "/zh/research/archive/gold-2026-09-18/",
    "sourceHref": "/data/gold-ai/2026-09-18.json",
    "currentHref": "/zh/gold/ai/",
    "capturedAt": "2026-10-05T13:28:08Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.384Z"
  },
  "sourceSha256": "729d87e61e19c836894b742fa62a1cf39b6db741c6df2a3456c93339e9435f08",
  "document": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "symbol": "XAU",
    "tradingDate": "2026-09-18",
    "window": {
      "start": "2026-09-18T00:00:00Z",
      "end": "2026-09-19T00:00:00Z",
      "timezone": "UTC"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.384Z",
    "market": {
      "venue": "Binance XAUUSDT 永续",
      "open": 4352.36,
      "high": 4405.75,
      "low": 4341,
      "close": 4383.64,
      "prevClose": 4352.37,
      "prevDate": "2026-09-17",
      "gapPct": 0,
      "change1dPct": 0.718,
      "change3dPct": 2.208,
      "change5dPct": 0.607,
      "change30dPct": -2.888,
      "amplitudePct": 1.488,
      "volumeXau": 498084.75,
      "quoteVolumeUsdt": 2180366034,
      "volume5dChangePct": 30.77,
      "realizedVolDailyPct": 1.608,
      "realizedVolSamples": 30,
      "logRet1d": 0.007158905163488634,
      "logRet3d": 0.02183748174790806,
      "logRet5d": 0.0060543703737428135,
      "high30d": 4700.63,
      "low30d": 4243.81,
      "tradingDays30d": 22,
      "indexClose": 4385.16,
      "basisPct": -0.035,
      "emaTrend": {
        "ema10": 4355.55,
        "ema20": 4374.56,
        "gapPct": -0.4337,
        "state": "death",
        "lastCross": "death",
        "lastCrossDate": "2026-09-10",
        "barsSinceCross": 6,
        "barsUsed": 115
      }
    },
    "phases": [
      {
        "key": "asia",
        "nameZh": "亚洲时段",
        "hours": "00:00–06:00",
        "open": 4352.36,
        "high": 4384.12,
        "low": 4341,
        "close": 4383.45,
        "changePct": 0.714,
        "rangePct": 0.991,
        "volumeXau": 98134.86,
        "volumeSharePct": 19.7
      },
      {
        "key": "europe",
        "nameZh": "欧洲时段",
        "hours": "06:00–12:00",
        "open": 4383.44,
        "high": 4405.75,
        "low": 4379.54,
        "close": 4388.28,
        "changePct": 0.11,
        "rangePct": 0.598,
        "volumeXau": 135693.98,
        "volumeSharePct": 27.2
      },
      {
        "key": "us",
        "nameZh": "美洲时段",
        "hours": "12:00–18:00",
        "open": 4388.29,
        "high": 4401.59,
        "low": 4350.16,
        "close": 4398.26,
        "changePct": 0.227,
        "rangePct": 1.172,
        "volumeXau": 218056.03,
        "volumeSharePct": 43.8
      },
      {
        "key": "late",
        "nameZh": "美盘尾段",
        "hours": "18:00–24:00",
        "open": 4398.26,
        "high": 4398.87,
        "low": 4379.5,
        "close": 4383.64,
        "changePct": -0.332,
        "rangePct": 0.44,
        "volumeXau": 46199.88,
        "volumeSharePct": 9.3
      }
    ],
    "derivatives": {
      "retailLongShort": {
        "start": 2.4941,
        "end": 2.5894,
        "changePct": 3.82,
        "longPctEnd": 72.14,
        "avg": 2.4779,
        "startAt": "2026-09-18T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-19T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "taker": {
        "ratio": 0.9543,
        "buyVol": 243193.1,
        "sellVol": 254833.02,
        "hourlyMax": 2.0987,
        "hourlyMin": 0.596,
        "last": 0.596,
        "hoursBuyDominant": 11,
        "hours": 24
      },
      "funding": {
        "intervalHours": 4,
        "settlements": [
          {
            "at": "2026-09-18T04:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00004655
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-18T08:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00002123
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-18T12:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.0000716
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-18T16:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00021889
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-18T20:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00012333
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0
          }
        ],
        "avg": 0.00008027,
        "last": 0,
        "dayTotal": 0.0004816,
        "prev7dAvg": 0.00004912,
        "prev7dCount": 42,
        "annualizedPct": 17.58
      },
      "topPositionLongShort": {
        "start": 1.96,
        "end": 2.3507,
        "changePct": 19.93,
        "longPctEnd": 70.16,
        "avg": 2.0886,
        "startAt": "2026-09-18T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-19T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "openInterest": {
        "start": 107684.828,
        "end": 100078.751,
        "startUsd": 468684215,
        "endUsd": 438710217,
        "change": -7606.077,
        "changePct": -7.063,
        "high": 109158.021,
        "low": 99973.611,
        "startAt": "2026-09-18T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-19T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topAccountLongShort": {
        "start": 2.5562,
        "end": 2.6311,
        "changePct": 2.93,
        "longPctEnd": 72.46,
        "avg": 2.4899,
        "startAt": "2026-09-18T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-19T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      }
    },
    "macro": {
      "dxy": {
        "symbol": "DX-Y.NYB",
        "date": "2026-09-18",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-17",
        "close": 100.22,
        "prev": 100.22,
        "changePct": 0,
        "logRet": 0,
        "sigmaPct": 0.311,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dPct": 1.11
      },
      "us10y": {
        "symbol": "^TNX",
        "date": "2026-09-18",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-17",
        "close": 4.998,
        "prev": 4.947,
        "changeBp": 5.1,
        "sigmaBp": 3.93,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dBp": 2.3
      }
    },
    "positioning": {
      "cot": {
        "reportDate": "2026-09-15",
        "releasedOn": "2026-09-18",
        "managedMoneyLong": 142394,
        "managedMoneyShort": 9278,
        "managedMoneyNet": 133116,
        "managedMoneyNetChange": -1856,
        "openInterest": 409899,
        "netPctOfOi": 32.5,
        "ageDays": 3
      }
    },
    "score": {
      "configVersion": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
      "trendScore": -0.11,
      "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
      "labelZh": "中性偏空",
      "confidence": 0.43,
      "components": {
        "weightedZ": -0.0691,
        "agreement": 0.256,
        "strength": 0.073,
        "coverage": 1
      },
      "factors": [
        {
          "key": "ret1d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "当日涨跌",
          "weight": 0.22,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.718,
          "z": 0.445,
          "contribution": 0.157
        },
        {
          "key": "mom3d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "3 日动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 2.208,
          "z": 0.784,
          "contribution": 0.1
        },
        {
          "key": "mom5d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "5 日（周）动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.607,
          "z": 0.168,
          "contribution": 0.022
        },
        {
          "key": "emaTrend",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "日线 EMA 趋势",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.4337,
          "z": -0.27,
          "contribution": -0.043
        },
        {
          "key": "dxy",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美元指数变化",
          "weight": 0.12,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0,
          "z": 0,
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "key": "us10y",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美债收益率变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 5.1,
          "z": -1.298,
          "contribution": -0.166
        },
        {
          "key": "oiChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "持仓量变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -7.063,
          "z": -0.706,
          "contribution": -0.09
        },
        {
          "key": "taker",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "主动买卖比",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.9543,
          "z": -0.914,
          "contribution": -0.117
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00003115,
          "z": 0.779,
          "contribution": 0.05
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingLevel",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率拥挤度",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00008027,
          "z": -0.303,
          "contribution": -0.019
        },
        {
          "key": "retailLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "散户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 3.82,
          "z": -0.191,
          "contribution": -0.012
        },
        {
          "key": "topLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "大户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 2.93,
          "z": 0.147,
          "contribution": 0.009
        }
      ]
    },
    "trendComparison": {
      "today": {
        "date": "2026-09-18",
        "trendScore": -0.11,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "中性偏空",
        "confidence": 0.43
      },
      "yesterday": {
        "date": "2026-09-17",
        "trendScore": 0.37,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bull",
        "labelZh": "中性偏多",
        "confidence": 0.56
      },
      "delta": -0.48
    },
    "dataSummary": "系统研判「中性偏空」，趋势分 -0.11（置信度 43%），前一交易日为「中性偏多」（+0.37）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,383.64，日涨跌 +0.72%，日内振幅 1.49%；3 日 +2.21%，5 日 +0.61%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于死叉状态（间距 -0.43%，2026-09-10 死叉，距今 6 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 100.22（0.00%），美债 10 年期收益率 4.998%（+5.1bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 -7.06%，资金费率日均 +0.0080%（前 7 日 +0.0049%），主动买卖比 0.954。主要偏多因子：当日涨跌、3 日动量；主要偏空因子：美债收益率变化、主动买卖比。",
    "dataBlocks": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "收盘 $4,383.64，UTC 2026-09-18 00:00 开盘 $4,352.36，较前一交易日（2026-09-17）收盘 $4,352.37 +0.72%",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "日内高 $4,405.75 / 低 $4,341.00，振幅 1.49%；30 日区间 $4,243.81 – $4,700.63",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "动量：3 日 +2.21%，5 日 +0.61%，30 日 -2.89%；30 个交易日日波动率 1.61%",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 $4,355.55 / EMA20 $4,374.56，间距 -0.43%（占收盘价），死叉状态（EMA10 在 EMA20 下方）；最近一次交叉：2026-09-10 死叉，距今 6 个交易日",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美元指数 100.22 → 100.22（0.00%），5 日 +1.11%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "美国 10 年期国债收益率 4.947% → 4.998%（+5.1bp），5 日 +2.3bp",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续成交 49.8 万盎司（约 21.80 亿 USDT），近 5 个交易日成交量较前 5 日 +30.77%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续持仓量 10.8 万 → 10.0 万盎司（-7.06%），名义价值约 4.39 亿美元",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "资金费率（每 4 小时结算）日均 +0.0080%，前 7 日均值 +0.0049%，年化约 +17.6%",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "主动买卖比 24h 汇总 0.954（买 24.3 万 / 卖 25.5 万盎司），11/24 小时买方占优",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "全市场账户多空比 2.494 → 2.589（+3.82%）；大户账户多空比 2.556 → 2.631（+2.93%）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "CFTC 持仓报告（2026-09-15）：COMEX 黄金管理基金净多 133,116 手，周变化 -1,856 手（周度数据，不计入趋势分）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "亚洲时段（UTC 00:00–06:00）：$4,352.36 → $4,383.45，+0.71%，区间 $4,341.00 – $4,384.12，成交 9.8 万盎司（占全日 19.7%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "欧洲时段（UTC 06:00–12:00）：$4,383.44 → $4,388.28，+0.11%，区间 $4,379.54 – $4,405.75，成交 13.6 万盎司（占全日 27.2%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "美洲时段（UTC 12:00–18:00）：$4,388.29 → $4,398.26，+0.23%，区间 $4,350.16 – $4,401.59，成交 21.8 万盎司（占全日 43.8%），全日放量时段",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "美盘尾段（UTC 18:00–24:00）：$4,398.26 → $4,383.64，-0.33%，区间 $4,379.50 – $4,398.87，成交 4.6 万盎司（占全日 9.3%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "aiStatus": "pending",
    "outlook": null,
    "analysis": null,
    "sources": {
      "perpDaily": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 1d)",
      "perpPhases": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 6h)",
      "indexPrice": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/indexPriceKlines (XAUUSDT)",
      "dxy": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "us10y": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "retailLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "taker": "https://www.binance.com",
      "funding": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topPositionLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "openInterest": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topAccountLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "macro": "Yahoo Finance chart API (DX-Y.NYB, ^TNX)",
      "cot": "https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/resource/72hh-3qpy.json (088691)"
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "missing": [],
      "warnings": []
    }
  },
  "aiMetadata": {
    "model": "grok-4.7",
    "generatedAt": null
  }
}