{
  "record": {
    "id": "gold-2026-09-16",
    "asset": "gold",
    "assetName": "黄金",
    "scope": "digital",
    "date": "2026-09-16",
    "dateLabel": "UTC交易日",
    "title": "黄金 · 2026-09-16 日度研判归档",
    "kind": "日度研判",
    "status": "data",
    "statusLabel": "数据与评分 · AI文字未生成",
    "summary": "系统研判「偏空」，趋势分 -0.88（置信度 63%），前一交易日为「中性偏空」（-0.43）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,277.72，日涨跌 -0.26%，日内振幅 3.17%；3 日 -1.82%，5 日 -2.73%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于死叉状态（间距 -0.64%，2026-09-10 死叉，距今 4 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 100.31（+0.66%），美债 10 年期收益率 5.006%（+1.0bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 +12.20%，资金费率日均 +0.0055%（前 7 日 +0.0050%），主动买卖比 1.005。主要偏空因子：美元指数变化、持仓量变化。",
    "label": "偏空",
    "score": -0.88,
    "version": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
    "href": "/zh/research/archive/gold-2026-09-16/",
    "sourceHref": "/data/gold-ai/2026-09-16.json",
    "currentHref": "/zh/gold/ai/",
    "capturedAt": "2026-10-05T13:28:08Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.379Z"
  },
  "sourceSha256": "f3d34f4833c50580b6340090a20fbecd247fa024809786625a3e4a8ca6d7438d",
  "document": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "symbol": "XAU",
    "tradingDate": "2026-09-16",
    "window": {
      "start": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z",
      "end": "2026-09-17T00:00:00Z",
      "timezone": "UTC"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.379Z",
    "market": {
      "venue": "Binance XAUUSDT 永续",
      "open": 4288.95,
      "high": 4380,
      "low": 4243.81,
      "close": 4277.72,
      "prevClose": 4288.95,
      "prevDate": "2026-09-15",
      "gapPct": 0,
      "change1dPct": -0.262,
      "change3dPct": -1.824,
      "change5dPct": -2.728,
      "change30dPct": -3.44,
      "amplitudePct": 3.175,
      "volumeXau": 809051.49,
      "quoteVolumeUsdt": 3490129840,
      "volume5dChangePct": 22.09,
      "realizedVolDailyPct": 1.815,
      "realizedVolSamples": 30,
      "logRet1d": -0.0026217903649178756,
      "logRet3d": -0.018404901739083327,
      "logRet5d": -0.02766151960915884,
      "high30d": 4700.63,
      "low30d": 4243.81,
      "tradingDays30d": 22,
      "indexClose": 4275.12,
      "basisPct": 0.061,
      "emaTrend": {
        "ema10": 4348.62,
        "ema20": 4375.84,
        "gapPct": -0.6362,
        "state": "death",
        "lastCross": "death",
        "lastCrossDate": "2026-09-10",
        "barsSinceCross": 4,
        "barsUsed": 115
      }
    },
    "phases": [
      {
        "key": "asia",
        "nameZh": "亚洲时段",
        "hours": "00:00–06:00",
        "open": 4288.95,
        "high": 4346.46,
        "low": 4281.35,
        "close": 4332.31,
        "changePct": 1.011,
        "rangePct": 1.518,
        "volumeXau": 98960.08,
        "volumeSharePct": 12.2
      },
      {
        "key": "europe",
        "nameZh": "欧洲时段",
        "hours": "06:00–12:00",
        "open": 4332.31,
        "high": 4358.82,
        "low": 4327.93,
        "close": 4347.38,
        "changePct": 0.348,
        "rangePct": 0.713,
        "volumeXau": 115524.24,
        "volumeSharePct": 14.3
      },
      {
        "key": "us",
        "nameZh": "美洲时段",
        "hours": "12:00–18:00",
        "open": 4347.37,
        "high": 4380,
        "low": 4330.53,
        "close": 4367.07,
        "changePct": 0.453,
        "rangePct": 1.138,
        "volumeXau": 141761.69,
        "volumeSharePct": 17.5
      },
      {
        "key": "late",
        "nameZh": "美盘尾段",
        "hours": "18:00–24:00",
        "open": 4367.05,
        "high": 4376.72,
        "low": 4243.81,
        "close": 4277.72,
        "changePct": -2.046,
        "rangePct": 3.043,
        "volumeXau": 452805.48,
        "volumeSharePct": 56
      }
    ],
    "derivatives": {
      "retailLongShort": {
        "start": 3.5413,
        "end": 3.7847,
        "changePct": 6.87,
        "longPctEnd": 79.1,
        "avg": 3.0951,
        "startAt": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-17T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topPositionLongShort": {
        "start": 1.852,
        "end": 1.8283,
        "changePct": -1.28,
        "longPctEnd": 64.64,
        "avg": 1.7664,
        "startAt": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-17T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "taker": {
        "ratio": 1.0047,
        "buyVol": 405455.69,
        "sellVol": 403573.64,
        "hourlyMax": 1.3857,
        "hourlyMin": 0.733,
        "last": 1.3615,
        "hoursBuyDominant": 15,
        "hours": 24
      },
      "openInterest": {
        "start": 104237.297,
        "end": 116958.896,
        "startUsd": 447042001,
        "endUsd": 500270664,
        "change": 12721.599,
        "changePct": 12.204,
        "high": 116958.896,
        "low": 89455.338,
        "startAt": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-17T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "funding": {
        "intervalHours": 4,
        "settlements": [
          {
            "at": "2026-09-16T04:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-16T08:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-16T12:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-16T16:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00004559
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-16T20:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00016507
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-17T00:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00011777
          }
        ],
        "avg": 0.00005474,
        "last": 0.00011777,
        "dayTotal": 0.00032843,
        "prev7dAvg": 0.00004955,
        "prev7dCount": 42,
        "annualizedPct": 11.99
      },
      "topAccountLongShort": {
        "start": 4.0352,
        "end": 4.2411,
        "changePct": 5.1,
        "longPctEnd": 80.92,
        "avg": 3.3181,
        "startAt": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-17T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      }
    },
    "macro": {
      "dxy": {
        "symbol": "DX-Y.NYB",
        "date": "2026-09-16",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-15",
        "close": 100.31,
        "prev": 99.65,
        "changePct": 0.662,
        "logRet": 0.006601304585594668,
        "sigmaPct": 0.292,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dPct": 1.559
      },
      "us10y": {
        "symbol": "^TNX",
        "date": "2026-09-16",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-15",
        "close": 5.006,
        "prev": 4.996,
        "changeBp": 1,
        "sigmaBp": 3.8,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dBp": 16.9
      }
    },
    "positioning": {
      "cot": {
        "reportDate": "2026-09-08",
        "releasedOn": "2026-09-11",
        "managedMoneyLong": 145804,
        "managedMoneyShort": 10832,
        "managedMoneyNet": 134972,
        "managedMoneyNetChange": -1799,
        "openInterest": 411227,
        "netPctOfOi": 32.8,
        "ageDays": 8
      }
    },
    "score": {
      "configVersion": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
      "trendScore": -0.88,
      "label": "lean_bear",
      "labelZh": "偏空",
      "confidence": 0.63,
      "components": {
        "weightedZ": -0.5508,
        "agreement": 0.405,
        "strength": 0.587,
        "coverage": 1
      },
      "factors": [
        {
          "key": "ret1d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "当日涨跌",
          "weight": 0.22,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.262,
          "z": -0.144,
          "contribution": -0.051
        },
        {
          "key": "mom3d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "3 日动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -1.824,
          "z": -0.585,
          "contribution": -0.075
        },
        {
          "key": "mom5d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "5 日（周）动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -2.728,
          "z": -0.682,
          "contribution": -0.087
        },
        {
          "key": "emaTrend",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "日线 EMA 趋势",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.6362,
          "z": -0.351,
          "contribution": -0.056
        },
        {
          "key": "dxy",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美元指数变化",
          "weight": 0.12,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.662,
          "z": -2.261,
          "contribution": -0.434
        },
        {
          "key": "us10y",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美债收益率变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 1,
          "z": -0.263,
          "contribution": -0.034
        },
        {
          "key": "oiChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "持仓量变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 12.204,
          "z": -1.22,
          "contribution": -0.156
        },
        {
          "key": "taker",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "主动买卖比",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 1.0047,
          "z": 0.094,
          "contribution": 0.012
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00000519,
          "z": 0.13,
          "contribution": 0.008
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingLevel",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率拥挤度",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00005474,
          "z": -0.047,
          "contribution": -0.003
        },
        {
          "key": "retailLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "散户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 6.87,
          "z": -0.344,
          "contribution": -0.022
        },
        {
          "key": "topLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "大户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 5.1,
          "z": 0.255,
          "contribution": 0.016
        }
      ]
    },
    "trendComparison": {
      "today": {
        "date": "2026-09-16",
        "trendScore": -0.88,
        "label": "lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "偏空",
        "confidence": 0.63
      },
      "yesterday": {
        "date": "2026-09-15",
        "trendScore": -0.43,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "中性偏空",
        "confidence": 0.5
      },
      "delta": -0.45
    },
    "dataSummary": "系统研判「偏空」，趋势分 -0.88（置信度 63%），前一交易日为「中性偏空」（-0.43）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,277.72，日涨跌 -0.26%，日内振幅 3.17%；3 日 -1.82%，5 日 -2.73%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于死叉状态（间距 -0.64%，2026-09-10 死叉，距今 4 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 100.31（+0.66%），美债 10 年期收益率 5.006%（+1.0bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 +12.20%，资金费率日均 +0.0055%（前 7 日 +0.0050%），主动买卖比 1.005。主要偏空因子：美元指数变化、持仓量变化。",
    "dataBlocks": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "收盘 $4,277.72，UTC 2026-09-16 00:00 开盘 $4,288.95，较前一交易日（2026-09-15）收盘 $4,288.95 -0.26%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日内高 $4,380.00 / 低 $4,243.81，振幅 3.17%；30 日区间 $4,243.81 – $4,700.63",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "动量：3 日 -1.82%，5 日 -2.73%，30 日 -3.44%；30 个交易日日波动率 1.81%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 $4,348.62 / EMA20 $4,375.84，间距 -0.64%（占收盘价），死叉状态（EMA10 在 EMA20 下方）；最近一次交叉：2026-09-10 死叉，距今 4 个交易日",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美元指数 99.65 → 100.31（+0.66%），5 日 +1.56%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美国 10 年期国债收益率 4.996% → 5.006%（+1.0bp），5 日 +16.9bp",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续成交 80.9 万盎司（约 34.90 亿 USDT），近 5 个交易日成交量较前 5 日 +22.09%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续持仓量 10.4 万 → 11.7 万盎司（+12.20%），名义价值约 5.00 亿美元",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "资金费率（每 4 小时结算）日均 +0.0055%，前 7 日均值 +0.0050%，年化约 +12.0%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "主动买卖比 24h 汇总 1.005（买 40.5 万 / 卖 40.4 万盎司），15/24 小时买方占优",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "全市场账户多空比 3.541 → 3.785（+6.87%）；大户账户多空比 4.035 → 4.241（+5.10%）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "CFTC 持仓报告（2026-09-08）：COMEX 黄金管理基金净多 134,972 手，周变化 -1,799 手（周度数据，不计入趋势分）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "亚洲时段（UTC 00:00–06:00）：$4,288.95 → $4,332.31，+1.01%，区间 $4,281.35 – $4,346.46，成交 9.9 万盎司（占全日 12.2%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "欧洲时段（UTC 06:00–12:00）：$4,332.31 → $4,347.38，+0.35%，区间 $4,327.93 – $4,358.82，成交 11.6 万盎司（占全日 14.3%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "美洲时段（UTC 12:00–18:00）：$4,347.37 → $4,367.07，+0.45%，区间 $4,330.53 – $4,380.00，成交 14.2 万盎司（占全日 17.5%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "美盘尾段（UTC 18:00–24:00）：$4,367.05 → $4,277.72，-2.05%，区间 $4,243.81 – $4,376.72，成交 45.3 万盎司（占全日 56%），全日放量时段",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "aiStatus": "pending",
    "outlook": null,
    "analysis": null,
    "sources": {
      "perpDaily": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 1d)",
      "perpPhases": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 6h)",
      "indexPrice": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/indexPriceKlines (XAUUSDT)",
      "dxy": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "us10y": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "retailLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topPositionLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "taker": "https://www.binance.com",
      "openInterest": "https://www.binance.com",
      "funding": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topAccountLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "macro": "Yahoo Finance chart API (DX-Y.NYB, ^TNX)",
      "cot": "https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/resource/72hh-3qpy.json (088691)"
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "missing": [],
      "warnings": []
    }
  },
  "aiMetadata": {
    "model": "grok-4.7",
    "generatedAt": null
  }
}