{
  "record": {
    "id": "gold-2026-09-15",
    "asset": "gold",
    "assetName": "黄金",
    "scope": "digital",
    "date": "2026-09-15",
    "dateLabel": "UTC交易日",
    "title": "黄金 · 2026-09-15 日度研判归档",
    "kind": "日度研判",
    "status": "data",
    "statusLabel": "数据与评分 · AI文字未生成",
    "summary": "系统研判「中性偏空」，趋势分 -0.43（置信度 50%），前一交易日为「偏空」（-0.90）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,288.95，日涨跌 -0.09%，日内振幅 1.27%；3 日 -0.70%，5 日 -1.49%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于死叉状态（间距 -0.51%，2026-09-10 死叉，距今 3 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 99.65（+0.19%），美债 10 年期收益率 4.996%（+3.5bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 +1.78%，资金费率日均 +0.0054%（前 7 日 +0.0052%），主动买卖比 0.988。主要偏空因子：美元指数变化、美债收益率变化。",
    "label": "中性偏空",
    "score": -0.43,
    "version": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
    "href": "/zh/research/archive/gold-2026-09-15/",
    "sourceHref": "/data/gold-ai/2026-09-15.json",
    "currentHref": "/zh/gold/ai/",
    "capturedAt": "2026-10-05T13:28:08Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.377Z"
  },
  "sourceSha256": "42f5d40de7ad74099966cf094e6bf9d234e281f69ea2a1548a7f86bd55856775",
  "document": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "symbol": "XAU",
    "tradingDate": "2026-09-15",
    "window": {
      "start": "2026-09-15T00:00:00Z",
      "end": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z",
      "timezone": "UTC"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.377Z",
    "market": {
      "venue": "Binance XAUUSDT 永续",
      "open": 4292.79,
      "high": 4321.22,
      "low": 4266.68,
      "close": 4288.95,
      "prevClose": 4292.79,
      "prevDate": "2026-09-14",
      "gapPct": 0,
      "change1dPct": -0.089,
      "change3dPct": -0.702,
      "change5dPct": -1.489,
      "change30dPct": -2.268,
      "amplitudePct": 1.271,
      "volumeXau": 348088.76,
      "quoteVolumeUsdt": 1494711340,
      "volume5dChangePct": -9.52,
      "realizedVolDailyPct": 1.815,
      "realizedVolSamples": 30,
      "logRet1d": -0.0008949234668690211,
      "logRet3d": -0.007042143549119364,
      "logRet5d": -0.015000188690833543,
      "high30d": 4700.63,
      "low30d": 4259.58,
      "tradingDays30d": 22,
      "indexClose": 4286.5,
      "basisPct": 0.057,
      "emaTrend": {
        "ema10": 4364.38,
        "ema20": 4386.17,
        "gapPct": -0.508,
        "state": "death",
        "lastCross": "death",
        "lastCrossDate": "2026-09-10",
        "barsSinceCross": 3,
        "barsUsed": 115
      }
    },
    "phases": [
      {
        "key": "asia",
        "nameZh": "亚洲时段",
        "hours": "00:00–06:00",
        "open": 4292.79,
        "high": 4321.22,
        "low": 4288.21,
        "close": 4295.75,
        "changePct": 0.069,
        "rangePct": 0.769,
        "volumeXau": 71590.47,
        "volumeSharePct": 20.6
      },
      {
        "key": "europe",
        "nameZh": "欧洲时段",
        "hours": "06:00–12:00",
        "open": 4295.74,
        "high": 4299.78,
        "low": 4266.68,
        "close": 4289.41,
        "changePct": -0.147,
        "rangePct": 0.771,
        "volumeXau": 100231.89,
        "volumeSharePct": 28.8
      },
      {
        "key": "us",
        "nameZh": "美洲时段",
        "hours": "12:00–18:00",
        "open": 4289.4,
        "high": 4305.25,
        "low": 4276.18,
        "close": 4300.02,
        "changePct": 0.248,
        "rangePct": 0.678,
        "volumeXau": 121657.37,
        "volumeSharePct": 35
      },
      {
        "key": "late",
        "nameZh": "美盘尾段",
        "hours": "18:00–24:00",
        "open": 4300.04,
        "high": 4316.2,
        "low": 4286.98,
        "close": 4288.95,
        "changePct": -0.258,
        "rangePct": 0.68,
        "volumeXau": 54609.03,
        "volumeSharePct": 15.7
      }
    ],
    "derivatives": {
      "retailLongShort": {
        "start": 3.9702,
        "end": 3.5413,
        "changePct": -10.8,
        "longPctEnd": 77.98,
        "avg": 3.7684,
        "startAt": "2026-09-15T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "taker": {
        "ratio": 0.9878,
        "buyVol": 172966.49,
        "sellVol": 175106.29,
        "hourlyMax": 1.4974,
        "hourlyMin": 0.6424,
        "last": 1.4974,
        "hoursBuyDominant": 13,
        "hours": 24
      },
      "openInterest": {
        "start": 102412.16,
        "end": 104237.297,
        "startUsd": 439608740,
        "endUsd": 447042001,
        "change": 1825.137,
        "changePct": 1.782,
        "high": 108481.135,
        "low": 101578.762,
        "startAt": "2026-09-15T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topPositionLongShort": {
        "start": 2.0416,
        "end": 1.852,
        "changePct": -9.29,
        "longPctEnd": 64.94,
        "avg": 1.9535,
        "startAt": "2026-09-15T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "funding": {
        "intervalHours": 4,
        "settlements": [
          {
            "at": "2026-09-15T04:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00008258
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-15T08:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00007851
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-15T12:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00008062
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-15T16:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00004571
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-15T20:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00002638
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00000885
          }
        ],
        "avg": 0.00005378,
        "last": 0.00000885,
        "dayTotal": 0.00032265,
        "prev7dAvg": 0.0000516,
        "prev7dCount": 42,
        "annualizedPct": 11.78
      },
      "topAccountLongShort": {
        "start": 4.5096,
        "end": 4.0352,
        "changePct": -10.52,
        "longPctEnd": 80.14,
        "avg": 4.2635,
        "startAt": "2026-09-15T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      }
    },
    "macro": {
      "dxy": {
        "symbol": "DX-Y.NYB",
        "date": "2026-09-15",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-14",
        "close": 99.65,
        "prev": 99.46,
        "changePct": 0.191,
        "logRet": 0.0019085178895739117,
        "sigmaPct": 0.289,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dPct": 0.82
      },
      "us10y": {
        "symbol": "^TNX",
        "date": "2026-09-15",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-14",
        "close": 4.996,
        "prev": 4.961,
        "changeBp": 3.5,
        "sigmaBp": 4,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dBp": 19
      }
    },
    "positioning": {
      "cot": {
        "reportDate": "2026-09-08",
        "releasedOn": "2026-09-11",
        "managedMoneyLong": 145804,
        "managedMoneyShort": 10832,
        "managedMoneyNet": 134972,
        "managedMoneyNetChange": -1799,
        "openInterest": 411227,
        "netPctOfOi": 32.8,
        "ageDays": 7
      }
    },
    "score": {
      "configVersion": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
      "trendScore": -0.43,
      "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
      "labelZh": "中性偏空",
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "components": {
        "weightedZ": -0.2681,
        "agreement": 0.292,
        "strength": 0.287,
        "coverage": 1
      },
      "factors": [
        {
          "key": "ret1d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "当日涨跌",
          "weight": 0.22,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.089,
          "z": -0.049,
          "contribution": -0.017
        },
        {
          "key": "mom3d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "3 日动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.702,
          "z": -0.224,
          "contribution": -0.029
        },
        {
          "key": "mom5d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "5 日（周）动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -1.489,
          "z": -0.37,
          "contribution": -0.047
        },
        {
          "key": "emaTrend",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "日线 EMA 趋势",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.508,
          "z": -0.28,
          "contribution": -0.045
        },
        {
          "key": "dxy",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美元指数变化",
          "weight": 0.12,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.191,
          "z": -0.66,
          "contribution": -0.127
        },
        {
          "key": "us10y",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美债收益率变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 3.5,
          "z": -0.875,
          "contribution": -0.112
        },
        {
          "key": "oiChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "持仓量变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 1.782,
          "z": -0.178,
          "contribution": -0.023
        },
        {
          "key": "taker",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "主动买卖比",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.9878,
          "z": -0.244,
          "contribution": -0.031
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00000218,
          "z": 0.054,
          "contribution": 0.003
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingLevel",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率拥挤度",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00005378,
          "z": -0.038,
          "contribution": -0.002
        },
        {
          "key": "retailLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "散户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -10.8,
          "z": 0.54,
          "contribution": 0.035
        },
        {
          "key": "topLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "大户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -10.52,
          "z": -0.526,
          "contribution": -0.034
        }
      ]
    },
    "trendComparison": {
      "today": {
        "date": "2026-09-15",
        "trendScore": -0.43,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "中性偏空",
        "confidence": 0.5
      },
      "yesterday": {
        "date": "2026-09-14",
        "trendScore": -0.9,
        "label": "lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "偏空",
        "confidence": 0.74
      },
      "delta": 0.47
    },
    "dataSummary": "系统研判「中性偏空」，趋势分 -0.43（置信度 50%），前一交易日为「偏空」（-0.90）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,288.95，日涨跌 -0.09%，日内振幅 1.27%；3 日 -0.70%，5 日 -1.49%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于死叉状态（间距 -0.51%，2026-09-10 死叉，距今 3 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 99.65（+0.19%），美债 10 年期收益率 4.996%（+3.5bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 +1.78%，资金费率日均 +0.0054%（前 7 日 +0.0052%），主动买卖比 0.988。主要偏空因子：美元指数变化、美债收益率变化。",
    "dataBlocks": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "收盘 $4,288.95，UTC 2026-09-15 00:00 开盘 $4,292.79，较前一交易日（2026-09-14）收盘 $4,292.79 -0.09%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "日内高 $4,321.22 / 低 $4,266.68，振幅 1.27%；30 日区间 $4,259.58 – $4,700.63",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "动量：3 日 -0.70%，5 日 -1.49%，30 日 -2.27%；30 个交易日日波动率 1.81%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 $4,364.38 / EMA20 $4,386.17，间距 -0.51%（占收盘价），死叉状态（EMA10 在 EMA20 下方）；最近一次交叉：2026-09-10 死叉，距今 3 个交易日",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美元指数 99.46 → 99.65（+0.19%），5 日 +0.82%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美国 10 年期国债收益率 4.961% → 4.996%（+3.5bp），5 日 +19.0bp",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续成交 34.8 万盎司（约 14.95 亿 USDT），近 5 个交易日成交量较前 5 日 -9.52%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续持仓量 10.2 万 → 10.4 万盎司（+1.78%），名义价值约 4.47 亿美元",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "资金费率（每 4 小时结算）日均 +0.0054%，前 7 日均值 +0.0052%，年化约 +11.8%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "主动买卖比 24h 汇总 0.988（买 17.3 万 / 卖 17.5 万盎司），13/24 小时买方占优",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "全市场账户多空比 3.970 → 3.541（-10.80%）；大户账户多空比 4.510 → 4.035（-10.52%）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "CFTC 持仓报告（2026-09-08）：COMEX 黄金管理基金净多 134,972 手，周变化 -1,799 手（周度数据，不计入趋势分）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "亚洲时段（UTC 00:00–06:00）：$4,292.79 → $4,295.75，+0.07%，区间 $4,288.21 – $4,321.22，成交 7.2 万盎司（占全日 20.6%）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "欧洲时段（UTC 06:00–12:00）：$4,295.74 → $4,289.41，-0.15%，区间 $4,266.68 – $4,299.78，成交 10.0 万盎司（占全日 28.8%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美洲时段（UTC 12:00–18:00）：$4,289.40 → $4,300.02，+0.25%，区间 $4,276.18 – $4,305.25，成交 12.2 万盎司（占全日 35%），全日放量时段",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "美盘尾段（UTC 18:00–24:00）：$4,300.04 → $4,288.95，-0.26%，区间 $4,286.98 – $4,316.20，成交 5.5 万盎司（占全日 15.7%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "aiStatus": "pending",
    "outlook": null,
    "analysis": null,
    "sources": {
      "perpDaily": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 1d)",
      "perpPhases": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 6h)",
      "indexPrice": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/indexPriceKlines (XAUUSDT)",
      "dxy": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "us10y": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "retailLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "taker": "https://www.binance.com",
      "openInterest": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topPositionLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "funding": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topAccountLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "macro": "Yahoo Finance chart API (DX-Y.NYB, ^TNX)",
      "cot": "https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/resource/72hh-3qpy.json (088691)"
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "missing": [],
      "warnings": []
    }
  },
  "aiMetadata": {
    "model": "grok-4.7",
    "generatedAt": null
  }
}