{
  "record": {
    "id": "gold-2026-09-14",
    "asset": "gold",
    "assetName": "黄金",
    "scope": "digital",
    "date": "2026-09-14",
    "dateLabel": "UTC交易日",
    "title": "黄金 · 2026-09-14 日度研判归档",
    "kind": "日度研判",
    "status": "data",
    "statusLabel": "数据与评分 · AI文字未生成",
    "summary": "系统研判「偏空」，趋势分 -0.90（置信度 74%），前一交易日为「中性偏空」（-0.13）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,292.79，日涨跌 -1.48%，日内振幅 2.30%；3 日 -2.39%，5 日 -3.04%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于死叉状态（间距 -0.36%，2026-09-10 死叉，距今 2 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 99.46（+0.34%），美债 10 年期收益率 4.961%（-1.4bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 +17.02%，资金费率日均 +0.0119%（前 7 日 +0.0040%），主动买卖比 0.970。主要偏多因子：资金费率变化、大户多空比变化；主要偏空因子：当日涨跌、美元指数变化。",
    "label": "偏空",
    "score": -0.9,
    "version": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
    "href": "/zh/research/archive/gold-2026-09-14/",
    "sourceHref": "/data/gold-ai/2026-09-14.json",
    "currentHref": "/zh/gold/ai/",
    "capturedAt": "2026-10-05T13:28:08Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.375Z"
  },
  "sourceSha256": "867bc6624ffd3108110ac55a3e2c53d6383bdaaf92d7da410241f761db87424f",
  "document": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "symbol": "XAU",
    "tradingDate": "2026-09-14",
    "window": {
      "start": "2026-09-14T00:00:00Z",
      "end": "2026-09-15T00:00:00Z",
      "timezone": "UTC"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.375Z",
    "market": {
      "venue": "Binance XAUUSDT 永续",
      "open": 4337.38,
      "high": 4359.96,
      "low": 4259.58,
      "close": 4292.79,
      "prevClose": 4357.18,
      "prevDate": "2026-09-11",
      "gapPct": -0.454,
      "change1dPct": -1.478,
      "change3dPct": -2.386,
      "change5dPct": -3.036,
      "change30dPct": -2.181,
      "amplitudePct": 2.304,
      "volumeXau": 498247.75,
      "quoteVolumeUsdt": 2145544183,
      "volume5dChangePct": -17.09,
      "realizedVolDailyPct": 1.787,
      "realizedVolSamples": 30,
      "logRet1d": -0.01488818790729641,
      "logRet3d": -0.02414480577737186,
      "logRet5d": -0.030828200079382844,
      "high30d": 4700.63,
      "low30d": 4259.58,
      "tradingDays30d": 21,
      "indexClose": 4289.32,
      "basisPct": 0.081,
      "emaTrend": {
        "ema10": 4381.14,
        "ema20": 4396.4,
        "gapPct": -0.3554,
        "state": "death",
        "lastCross": "death",
        "lastCrossDate": "2026-09-10",
        "barsSinceCross": 2,
        "barsUsed": 115
      }
    },
    "phases": [
      {
        "key": "asia",
        "nameZh": "亚洲时段",
        "hours": "00:00–06:00",
        "open": 4337.38,
        "high": 4359.96,
        "low": 4326.85,
        "close": 4342.13,
        "changePct": 0.11,
        "rangePct": 0.763,
        "volumeXau": 97379.9,
        "volumeSharePct": 19.5
      },
      {
        "key": "europe",
        "nameZh": "欧洲时段",
        "hours": "06:00–12:00",
        "open": 4342.13,
        "high": 4343.74,
        "low": 4284.27,
        "close": 4292.04,
        "changePct": -1.154,
        "rangePct": 1.37,
        "volumeXau": 137860.85,
        "volumeSharePct": 27.7
      },
      {
        "key": "us",
        "nameZh": "美洲时段",
        "hours": "12:00–18:00",
        "open": 4292.19,
        "high": 4322.87,
        "low": 4259.58,
        "close": 4316.17,
        "changePct": 0.559,
        "rangePct": 1.475,
        "volumeXau": 197662.7,
        "volumeSharePct": 39.7
      },
      {
        "key": "late",
        "nameZh": "美盘尾段",
        "hours": "18:00–24:00",
        "open": 4316.17,
        "high": 4320.42,
        "low": 4287.62,
        "close": 4292.79,
        "changePct": -0.542,
        "rangePct": 0.76,
        "volumeXau": 65344.3,
        "volumeSharePct": 13.1
      }
    ],
    "derivatives": {
      "retailLongShort": {
        "start": 3.29,
        "end": 3.9702,
        "changePct": 20.67,
        "longPctEnd": 79.88,
        "avg": 3.7529,
        "startAt": "2026-09-14T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-15T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "taker": {
        "ratio": 0.9699,
        "buyVol": 245276.18,
        "sellVol": 252893.87,
        "hourlyMax": 1.2723,
        "hourlyMin": 0.6999,
        "last": 1.041,
        "hoursBuyDominant": 11,
        "hours": 24
      },
      "topPositionLongShort": {
        "start": 2.1855,
        "end": 2.0416,
        "changePct": -6.58,
        "longPctEnd": 67.12,
        "avg": 1.9603,
        "startAt": "2026-09-14T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-15T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "funding": {
        "intervalHours": 4,
        "settlements": [
          {
            "at": "2026-09-14T04:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00005191
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-14T08:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00006866
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-14T12:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00016148
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-14T16:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00016984
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-14T20:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00015738
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-15T00:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00010681
          }
        ],
        "avg": 0.00011935,
        "last": 0.00010681,
        "dayTotal": 0.00071608,
        "prev7dAvg": 0.00003955,
        "prev7dCount": 42,
        "annualizedPct": 26.14
      },
      "openInterest": {
        "start": 87520.673,
        "end": 102412.16,
        "startUsd": 379587428,
        "endUsd": 439608740,
        "change": 14891.487,
        "changePct": 17.015,
        "high": 107835.267,
        "low": 87520.673,
        "startAt": "2026-09-14T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-15T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topAccountLongShort": {
        "start": 3.4903,
        "end": 4.5096,
        "changePct": 29.2,
        "longPctEnd": 81.85,
        "avg": 4.118,
        "startAt": "2026-09-14T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-15T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      }
    },
    "macro": {
      "dxy": {
        "symbol": "DX-Y.NYB",
        "date": "2026-09-14",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-11",
        "close": 99.46,
        "prev": 99.12,
        "changePct": 0.343,
        "logRet": 0.003424279051060143,
        "sigmaPct": 0.283,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dPct": 0.303
      },
      "us10y": {
        "symbol": "^TNX",
        "date": "2026-09-14",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-11",
        "close": 4.961,
        "prev": 4.975,
        "changeBp": -1.4,
        "sigmaBp": 4.18,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dBp": 17.7
      }
    },
    "positioning": {
      "cot": {
        "reportDate": "2026-09-08",
        "releasedOn": "2026-09-11",
        "managedMoneyLong": 145804,
        "managedMoneyShort": 10832,
        "managedMoneyNet": 134972,
        "managedMoneyNetChange": -1799,
        "openInterest": 411227,
        "netPctOfOi": 32.8,
        "ageDays": 6
      }
    },
    "score": {
      "configVersion": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
      "trendScore": -0.9,
      "label": "lean_bear",
      "labelZh": "偏空",
      "confidence": 0.74,
      "components": {
        "weightedZ": -0.5608,
        "agreement": 0.643,
        "strength": 0.6,
        "coverage": 1
      },
      "factors": [
        {
          "key": "ret1d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "当日涨跌",
          "weight": 0.22,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -1.478,
          "z": -0.833,
          "contribution": -0.293
        },
        {
          "key": "mom3d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "3 日动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -2.386,
          "z": -0.78,
          "contribution": -0.1
        },
        {
          "key": "mom5d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "5 日（周）动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -3.036,
          "z": -0.772,
          "contribution": -0.099
        },
        {
          "key": "emaTrend",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "日线 EMA 趋势",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.3554,
          "z": -0.199,
          "contribution": -0.032
        },
        {
          "key": "dxy",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美元指数变化",
          "weight": 0.12,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.343,
          "z": -1.21,
          "contribution": -0.232
        },
        {
          "key": "us10y",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美债收益率变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -1.4,
          "z": 0.335,
          "contribution": 0.043
        },
        {
          "key": "oiChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "持仓量变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 17.015,
          "z": -1.701,
          "contribution": -0.218
        },
        {
          "key": "taker",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "主动买卖比",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.9699,
          "z": -0.602,
          "contribution": -0.077
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.0000798,
          "z": 1.995,
          "contribution": 0.128
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingLevel",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率拥挤度",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00011935,
          "z": -0.693,
          "contribution": -0.044
        },
        {
          "key": "retailLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "散户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 20.67,
          "z": -1.034,
          "contribution": -0.066
        },
        {
          "key": "topLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "大户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 29.2,
          "z": 1.46,
          "contribution": 0.093
        }
      ]
    },
    "trendComparison": {
      "today": {
        "date": "2026-09-14",
        "trendScore": -0.9,
        "label": "lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "偏空",
        "confidence": 0.74
      },
      "yesterday": {
        "date": "2026-09-11",
        "trendScore": -0.13,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "中性偏空",
        "confidence": 0.43
      },
      "delta": -0.77
    },
    "dataSummary": "系统研判「偏空」，趋势分 -0.90（置信度 74%），前一交易日为「中性偏空」（-0.13）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,292.79，日涨跌 -1.48%，日内振幅 2.30%；3 日 -2.39%，5 日 -3.04%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于死叉状态（间距 -0.36%，2026-09-10 死叉，距今 2 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 99.46（+0.34%），美债 10 年期收益率 4.961%（-1.4bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 +17.02%，资金费率日均 +0.0119%（前 7 日 +0.0040%），主动买卖比 0.970。主要偏多因子：资金费率变化、大户多空比变化；主要偏空因子：当日涨跌、美元指数变化。",
    "dataBlocks": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "收盘 $4,292.79，UTC 2026-09-14 00:00 开盘 $4,337.38，较前一交易日（2026-09-11）收盘 $4,357.18 -1.48%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日内高 $4,359.96 / 低 $4,259.58，振幅 2.30%；30 日区间 $4,259.58 – $4,700.63",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "动量：3 日 -2.39%，5 日 -3.04%，30 日 -2.18%；30 个交易日日波动率 1.79%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 $4,381.14 / EMA20 $4,396.40，间距 -0.36%（占收盘价），死叉状态（EMA10 在 EMA20 下方）；最近一次交叉：2026-09-10 死叉，距今 2 个交易日",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美元指数 99.12 → 99.46（+0.34%），5 日 +0.30%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美国 10 年期国债收益率 4.975% → 4.961%（-1.4bp），5 日 +17.7bp",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续成交 49.8 万盎司（约 21.46 亿 USDT），近 5 个交易日成交量较前 5 日 -17.09%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续持仓量 8.8 万 → 10.2 万盎司（+17.02%），名义价值约 4.40 亿美元",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "资金费率（每 4 小时结算）日均 +0.0119%，前 7 日均值 +0.0040%，年化约 +26.1%",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "主动买卖比 24h 汇总 0.970（买 24.5 万 / 卖 25.3 万盎司），11/24 小时买方占优",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "全市场账户多空比 3.290 → 3.970（+20.67%）；大户账户多空比 3.490 → 4.510（+29.20%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "CFTC 持仓报告（2026-09-08）：COMEX 黄金管理基金净多 134,972 手，周变化 -1,799 手（周度数据，不计入趋势分）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "亚洲时段（UTC 00:00–06:00）：$4,337.38 → $4,342.13，+0.11%，区间 $4,326.85 – $4,359.96，成交 9.7 万盎司（占全日 19.5%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "欧洲时段（UTC 06:00–12:00）：$4,342.13 → $4,292.04，-1.15%，区间 $4,284.27 – $4,343.74，成交 13.8 万盎司（占全日 27.7%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美洲时段（UTC 12:00–18:00）：$4,292.19 → $4,316.17，+0.56%，区间 $4,259.58 – $4,322.87，成交 19.8 万盎司（占全日 39.7%），全日放量时段",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "美盘尾段（UTC 18:00–24:00）：$4,316.17 → $4,292.79，-0.54%，区间 $4,287.62 – $4,320.42，成交 6.5 万盎司（占全日 13.1%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "aiStatus": "pending",
    "outlook": null,
    "analysis": null,
    "sources": {
      "perpDaily": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 1d)",
      "perpPhases": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 6h)",
      "indexPrice": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/indexPriceKlines (XAUUSDT)",
      "dxy": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "us10y": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "retailLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "taker": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topPositionLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "funding": "https://www.binance.com",
      "openInterest": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topAccountLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "macro": "Yahoo Finance chart API (DX-Y.NYB, ^TNX)",
      "cot": "https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/resource/72hh-3qpy.json (088691)"
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "missing": [],
      "warnings": []
    }
  },
  "aiMetadata": {
    "model": "grok-4.7",
    "generatedAt": null
  }
}