{
  "record": {
    "id": "gold-2026-09-11",
    "asset": "gold",
    "assetName": "黄金",
    "scope": "digital",
    "date": "2026-09-11",
    "dateLabel": "UTC交易日",
    "title": "黄金 · 2026-09-11 日度研判归档",
    "kind": "日度研判",
    "status": "data",
    "statusLabel": "数据与评分 · AI文字未生成",
    "summary": "系统研判「中性偏空」，趋势分 -0.13（置信度 43%），前一交易日为「偏空」（-1.33）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,357.18，日涨跌 +0.88%，日内振幅 2.59%；3 日 +0.08%，5 日 -1.76%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于死叉状态（间距 -0.15%，2026-09-10 死叉，距今 1 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 99.12（+0.03%），美债 10 年期收益率 4.975%（+3.1bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 -6.34%，资金费率日均 +0.0078%（前 7 日 +0.0038%），主动买卖比 0.972。主要偏多因子：当日涨跌、资金费率变化；主要偏空因子：美债收益率变化、持仓量变化。",
    "label": "中性偏空",
    "score": -0.13,
    "version": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
    "href": "/zh/research/archive/gold-2026-09-11/",
    "sourceHref": "/data/gold-ai/2026-09-11.json",
    "currentHref": "/zh/gold/ai/",
    "capturedAt": "2026-10-05T13:28:08Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.373Z"
  },
  "sourceSha256": "f1fd915a09130cc249e7690c13ca205e21de67e3b8e10dceb40c7bcd15faa442",
  "document": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "symbol": "XAU",
    "tradingDate": "2026-09-11",
    "window": {
      "start": "2026-09-11T00:00:00Z",
      "end": "2026-09-12T00:00:00Z",
      "timezone": "UTC"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.373Z",
    "market": {
      "venue": "Binance XAUUSDT 永续",
      "open": 4319.25,
      "high": 4406.88,
      "low": 4295,
      "close": 4357.18,
      "prevClose": 4319.26,
      "prevDate": "2026-09-10",
      "gapPct": 0,
      "change1dPct": 0.878,
      "change3dPct": 0.078,
      "change5dPct": -1.757,
      "change30dPct": -1.389,
      "amplitudePct": 2.59,
      "volumeXau": 558555.02,
      "quoteVolumeUsdt": 2432592379,
      "volume5dChangePct": -27.92,
      "realizedVolDailyPct": 1.807,
      "realizedVolSamples": 30,
      "logRet1d": 0.008740967825046027,
      "logRet3d": 0.0007829226833319019,
      "logRet5d": -0.017729613780794292,
      "high30d": 4700.63,
      "low30d": 4288,
      "tradingDays30d": 22,
      "indexClose": 4356.56,
      "basisPct": 0.014,
      "emaTrend": {
        "ema10": 4400.78,
        "ema20": 4407.31,
        "gapPct": -0.1498,
        "state": "death",
        "lastCross": "death",
        "lastCrossDate": "2026-09-10",
        "barsSinceCross": 1,
        "barsUsed": 115
      }
    },
    "phases": [
      {
        "key": "asia",
        "nameZh": "亚洲时段",
        "hours": "00:00–06:00",
        "open": 4319.25,
        "high": 4355.81,
        "low": 4306.02,
        "close": 4350.36,
        "changePct": 0.72,
        "rangePct": 1.153,
        "volumeXau": 121985.54,
        "volumeSharePct": 21.8
      },
      {
        "key": "europe",
        "nameZh": "欧洲时段",
        "hours": "06:00–12:00",
        "open": 4350.35,
        "high": 4365.3,
        "low": 4335.38,
        "close": 4338.21,
        "changePct": -0.279,
        "rangePct": 0.688,
        "volumeXau": 90499.59,
        "volumeSharePct": 16.2
      },
      {
        "key": "us",
        "nameZh": "美洲时段",
        "hours": "12:00–18:00",
        "open": 4338.22,
        "high": 4406.88,
        "low": 4295,
        "close": 4363.15,
        "changePct": 0.575,
        "rangePct": 2.579,
        "volumeXau": 313526.77,
        "volumeSharePct": 56.1
      },
      {
        "key": "late",
        "nameZh": "美盘尾段",
        "hours": "18:00–24:00",
        "open": 4363.16,
        "high": 4364.37,
        "low": 4347.95,
        "close": 4357.18,
        "changePct": -0.137,
        "rangePct": 0.376,
        "volumeXau": 32543.12,
        "volumeSharePct": 5.8
      }
    ],
    "derivatives": {
      "retailLongShort": {
        "start": 3.3516,
        "end": 3.1051,
        "changePct": -7.35,
        "longPctEnd": 75.64,
        "avg": 3.135,
        "startAt": "2026-09-11T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-12T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "taker": {
        "ratio": 0.972,
        "buyVol": 275309.08,
        "sellVol": 283243.24,
        "hourlyMax": 1.4747,
        "hourlyMin": 0.762,
        "last": 1.4313,
        "hoursBuyDominant": 8,
        "hours": 24
      },
      "topPositionLongShort": {
        "start": 2.0577,
        "end": 2.1264,
        "changePct": 3.34,
        "longPctEnd": 68.01,
        "avg": 2.0577,
        "startAt": "2026-09-11T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-12T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "openInterest": {
        "start": 93108.151,
        "end": 87209.183,
        "startUsd": 402134175,
        "endUsd": 379985935,
        "change": -5898.968,
        "changePct": -6.336,
        "high": 97772.217,
        "low": 86919.006,
        "startAt": "2026-09-11T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-12T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topAccountLongShort": {
        "start": 3.6339,
        "end": 3.1841,
        "changePct": -12.38,
        "longPctEnd": 76.1,
        "avg": 3.2497,
        "startAt": "2026-09-11T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-12T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "funding": {
        "intervalHours": 4,
        "settlements": [
          {
            "at": "2026-09-11T04:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00007385
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-11T08:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00002758
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-11T12:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00008497
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-11T16:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00011108
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-11T20:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00017083
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0
          }
        ],
        "avg": 0.00007805,
        "last": 0,
        "dayTotal": 0.00046831,
        "prev7dAvg": 0.00003835,
        "prev7dCount": 42,
        "annualizedPct": 17.09
      }
    },
    "macro": {
      "dxy": {
        "symbol": "DX-Y.NYB",
        "date": "2026-09-11",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-10",
        "close": 99.12,
        "prev": 99.09,
        "changePct": 0.03,
        "logRet": 0.00030277391715087846,
        "sigmaPct": 0.285,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dPct": 0.121
      },
      "us10y": {
        "symbol": "^TNX",
        "date": "2026-09-11",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-10",
        "close": 4.975,
        "prev": 4.944,
        "changeBp": 3.1,
        "sigmaBp": 4.38,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dBp": 21.3
      }
    },
    "positioning": {
      "cot": {
        "reportDate": "2026-09-08",
        "releasedOn": "2026-09-11",
        "managedMoneyLong": 145804,
        "managedMoneyShort": 10832,
        "managedMoneyNet": 134972,
        "managedMoneyNetChange": -1799,
        "openInterest": 411227,
        "netPctOfOi": 32.8,
        "ageDays": 3
      }
    },
    "score": {
      "configVersion": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
      "trendScore": -0.13,
      "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
      "labelZh": "中性偏空",
      "confidence": 0.43,
      "components": {
        "weightedZ": -0.0814,
        "agreement": 0.244,
        "strength": 0.087,
        "coverage": 1
      },
      "factors": [
        {
          "key": "ret1d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "当日涨跌",
          "weight": 0.22,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.878,
          "z": 0.484,
          "contribution": 0.17
        },
        {
          "key": "mom3d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "3 日动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.078,
          "z": 0.025,
          "contribution": 0.003
        },
        {
          "key": "mom5d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "5 日（周）动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -1.757,
          "z": -0.439,
          "contribution": -0.056
        },
        {
          "key": "emaTrend",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "日线 EMA 趋势",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.1498,
          "z": -0.083,
          "contribution": -0.013
        },
        {
          "key": "dxy",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美元指数变化",
          "weight": 0.12,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.03,
          "z": -0.106,
          "contribution": -0.02
        },
        {
          "key": "us10y",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美债收益率变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 3.1,
          "z": -0.708,
          "contribution": -0.091
        },
        {
          "key": "oiChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "持仓量变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -6.336,
          "z": -0.634,
          "contribution": -0.081
        },
        {
          "key": "taker",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "主动买卖比",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.972,
          "z": -0.56,
          "contribution": -0.072
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.0000397,
          "z": 0.992,
          "contribution": 0.063
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingLevel",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率拥挤度",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00007805,
          "z": -0.28,
          "contribution": -0.018
        },
        {
          "key": "retailLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "散户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -7.35,
          "z": 0.368,
          "contribution": 0.024
        },
        {
          "key": "topLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "大户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -12.38,
          "z": -0.619,
          "contribution": -0.04
        }
      ]
    },
    "trendComparison": {
      "today": {
        "date": "2026-09-11",
        "trendScore": -0.13,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "中性偏空",
        "confidence": 0.43
      },
      "yesterday": {
        "date": "2026-09-10",
        "trendScore": -1.33,
        "label": "lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "偏空",
        "confidence": 0.84
      },
      "delta": 1.2
    },
    "dataSummary": "系统研判「中性偏空」，趋势分 -0.13（置信度 43%），前一交易日为「偏空」（-1.33）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,357.18，日涨跌 +0.88%，日内振幅 2.59%；3 日 +0.08%，5 日 -1.76%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于死叉状态（间距 -0.15%，2026-09-10 死叉，距今 1 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 99.12（+0.03%），美债 10 年期收益率 4.975%（+3.1bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 -6.34%，资金费率日均 +0.0078%（前 7 日 +0.0038%），主动买卖比 0.972。主要偏多因子：当日涨跌、资金费率变化；主要偏空因子：美债收益率变化、持仓量变化。",
    "dataBlocks": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "收盘 $4,357.18，UTC 2026-09-11 00:00 开盘 $4,319.25，较前一交易日（2026-09-10）收盘 $4,319.26 +0.88%",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "日内高 $4,406.88 / 低 $4,295.00，振幅 2.59%；30 日区间 $4,288.00 – $4,700.63",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "动量：3 日 +0.08%，5 日 -1.76%，30 日 -1.39%；30 个交易日日波动率 1.81%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 $4,400.78 / EMA20 $4,407.31，间距 -0.15%（占收盘价），死叉状态（EMA10 在 EMA20 下方）；最近一次交叉：2026-09-10 死叉，距今 1 个交易日",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "美元指数 99.09 → 99.12（+0.03%），5 日 +0.12%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "美国 10 年期国债收益率 4.944% → 4.975%（+3.1bp），5 日 +21.3bp",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续成交 55.9 万盎司（约 24.33 亿 USDT），近 5 个交易日成交量较前 5 日 -27.92%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续持仓量 9.3 万 → 8.7 万盎司（-6.34%），名义价值约 3.80 亿美元",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "资金费率（每 4 小时结算）日均 +0.0078%，前 7 日均值 +0.0038%，年化约 +17.1%",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "主动买卖比 24h 汇总 0.972（买 27.5 万 / 卖 28.3 万盎司），8/24 小时买方占优",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "全市场账户多空比 3.352 → 3.105（-7.35%）；大户账户多空比 3.634 → 3.184（-12.38%）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "CFTC 持仓报告（2026-09-08）：COMEX 黄金管理基金净多 134,972 手，周变化 -1,799 手（周度数据，不计入趋势分）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "亚洲时段（UTC 00:00–06:00）：$4,319.25 → $4,350.36，+0.72%，区间 $4,306.02 – $4,355.81，成交 12.2 万盎司（占全日 21.8%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "欧洲时段（UTC 06:00–12:00）：$4,350.35 → $4,338.21，-0.28%，区间 $4,335.38 – $4,365.30，成交 9.0 万盎司（占全日 16.2%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美洲时段（UTC 12:00–18:00）：$4,338.22 → $4,363.15，+0.57%，区间 $4,295.00 – $4,406.88，成交 31.4 万盎司（占全日 56.1%），全日放量时段",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "美盘尾段（UTC 18:00–24:00）：$4,363.16 → $4,357.18，-0.14%，区间 $4,347.95 – $4,364.37，成交 3.3 万盎司（占全日 5.8%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "aiStatus": "pending",
    "outlook": null,
    "analysis": null,
    "sources": {
      "perpDaily": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 1d)",
      "perpPhases": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 6h)",
      "indexPrice": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/indexPriceKlines (XAUUSDT)",
      "dxy": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "us10y": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "retailLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "taker": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topPositionLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "openInterest": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topAccountLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "funding": "https://www.binance.com",
      "macro": "Yahoo Finance chart API (DX-Y.NYB, ^TNX)",
      "cot": "https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/resource/72hh-3qpy.json (088691)"
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "missing": [],
      "warnings": []
    }
  },
  "aiMetadata": {
    "model": "grok-4.7",
    "generatedAt": null
  }
}