{
  "record": {
    "id": "gold-2026-09-09",
    "asset": "gold",
    "assetName": "黄金",
    "scope": "digital",
    "date": "2026-09-09",
    "dateLabel": "UTC交易日",
    "title": "黄金 · 2026-09-09 日度研判归档",
    "kind": "日度研判",
    "status": "data",
    "statusLabel": "数据与评分 · AI文字未生成",
    "summary": "系统研判「中性偏空」，趋势分 -0.13（置信度 45%），前一交易日为「中性偏空」（-0.47）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,397.70，日涨跌 +1.01%，日内振幅 2.11%；3 日 -0.84%，5 日 +0.17%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于金叉状态（间距 +0.19%，2026-08-05 金叉，距今 25 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 98.77（-0.07%），美债 10 年期收益率 4.837%（+3.1bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 -8.93%，资金费率日均 +0.0044%（前 7 日 +0.0046%），主动买卖比 0.948。主要偏多因子：当日涨跌、散户多空比变化；主要偏空因子：主动买卖比、持仓量变化。",
    "label": "中性偏空",
    "score": -0.13,
    "version": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
    "href": "/zh/research/archive/gold-2026-09-09/",
    "sourceHref": "/data/gold-ai/2026-09-09.json",
    "currentHref": "/zh/gold/ai/",
    "capturedAt": "2026-10-05T13:28:08Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.368Z"
  },
  "sourceSha256": "c81861e699b20adf6119cbf53a8c13fb82b253ae97e4b2779437fb2a8c5afaf3",
  "document": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "symbol": "XAU",
    "tradingDate": "2026-09-09",
    "window": {
      "start": "2026-09-09T00:00:00Z",
      "end": "2026-09-10T00:00:00Z",
      "timezone": "UTC"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.368Z",
    "market": {
      "venue": "Binance XAUUSDT 永续",
      "open": 4353.77,
      "high": 4437.54,
      "low": 4345.66,
      "close": 4397.7,
      "prevClose": 4353.77,
      "prevDate": "2026-09-08",
      "gapPct": 0,
      "change1dPct": 1.009,
      "change3dPct": -0.844,
      "change5dPct": 0.166,
      "change30dPct": -0.215,
      "amplitudePct": 2.11,
      "volumeXau": 409643.4,
      "quoteVolumeUsdt": 1803417099,
      "volume5dChangePct": -23.15,
      "realizedVolDailyPct": 1.78,
      "realizedVolSamples": 30,
      "logRet1d": 0.010039540553407306,
      "logRet3d": -0.008472995910718827,
      "logRet5d": 0.0016613378725837964,
      "high30d": 4700.63,
      "low30d": 4288,
      "tradingDays30d": 22,
      "indexClose": 4395.61,
      "basisPct": 0.048,
      "emaTrend": {
        "ema10": 4430.73,
        "ema20": 4422.4,
        "gapPct": 0.1894,
        "state": "golden",
        "lastCross": "golden",
        "lastCrossDate": "2026-08-05",
        "barsSinceCross": 25,
        "barsUsed": 115
      }
    },
    "phases": [
      {
        "key": "asia",
        "nameZh": "亚洲时段",
        "hours": "00:00–06:00",
        "open": 4353.77,
        "high": 4404.16,
        "low": 4345.66,
        "close": 4402.47,
        "changePct": 1.119,
        "rangePct": 1.344,
        "volumeXau": 80147.17,
        "volumeSharePct": 19.6
      },
      {
        "key": "europe",
        "nameZh": "欧洲时段",
        "hours": "06:00–12:00",
        "open": 4402.47,
        "high": 4419.34,
        "low": 4390.14,
        "close": 4410.9,
        "changePct": 0.191,
        "rangePct": 0.663,
        "volumeXau": 79214.32,
        "volumeSharePct": 19.3
      },
      {
        "key": "us",
        "nameZh": "美洲时段",
        "hours": "12:00–18:00",
        "open": 4410.9,
        "high": 4437.54,
        "low": 4379.46,
        "close": 4420.67,
        "changePct": 0.221,
        "rangePct": 1.317,
        "volumeXau": 205563.7,
        "volumeSharePct": 50.2
      },
      {
        "key": "late",
        "nameZh": "美盘尾段",
        "hours": "18:00–24:00",
        "open": 4420.68,
        "high": 4425.74,
        "low": 4397.04,
        "close": 4397.7,
        "changePct": -0.52,
        "rangePct": 0.649,
        "volumeXau": 44718.2,
        "volumeSharePct": 10.9
      }
    ],
    "derivatives": {
      "retailLongShort": {
        "start": 3.0209,
        "end": 2.5224,
        "changePct": -16.5,
        "longPctEnd": 71.61,
        "avg": 2.6714,
        "startAt": "2026-09-09T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-10T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "taker": {
        "ratio": 0.9475,
        "buyVol": 199284.86,
        "sellVol": 210337.43,
        "hourlyMax": 1.4333,
        "hourlyMin": 0.7127,
        "last": 1.1338,
        "hoursBuyDominant": 9,
        "hours": 24
      },
      "topPositionLongShort": {
        "start": 1.6845,
        "end": 1.7339,
        "changePct": 2.93,
        "longPctEnd": 63.42,
        "avg": 1.7556,
        "startAt": "2026-09-09T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-10T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "openInterest": {
        "start": 88257.998,
        "end": 80375.356,
        "startUsd": 384258554,
        "endUsd": 353461881,
        "change": -7882.642,
        "changePct": -8.931,
        "high": 89702.707,
        "low": 79736.387,
        "startAt": "2026-09-09T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-10T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topAccountLongShort": {
        "start": 3.268,
        "end": 2.592,
        "changePct": -20.69,
        "longPctEnd": 72.16,
        "avg": 2.7804,
        "startAt": "2026-09-09T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-10T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "funding": {
        "intervalHours": 4,
        "settlements": [
          {
            "at": "2026-09-09T04:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00005106
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-09T08:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00001433
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-09T12:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00004129
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-09T16:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00002749
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-09T20:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00010777
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-10T00:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.0000191
          }
        ],
        "avg": 0.00004351,
        "last": 0.0000191,
        "dayTotal": 0.00026104,
        "prev7dAvg": 0.00004609,
        "prev7dCount": 42,
        "annualizedPct": 9.53
      }
    },
    "macro": {
      "dxy": {
        "symbol": "DX-Y.NYB",
        "date": "2026-09-09",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-08",
        "close": 98.77,
        "prev": 98.84,
        "changePct": -0.071,
        "logRet": -0.0007084631368699544,
        "sigmaPct": 0.323,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dPct": -0.903
      },
      "us10y": {
        "symbol": "^TNX",
        "date": "2026-09-09",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-08",
        "close": 4.837,
        "prev": 4.806,
        "changeBp": 3.1,
        "sigmaBp": 3.99,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dBp": 4.1
      }
    },
    "positioning": {
      "cot": {
        "reportDate": "2026-09-01",
        "releasedOn": "2026-09-04",
        "managedMoneyLong": 149721,
        "managedMoneyShort": 12950,
        "managedMoneyNet": 136771,
        "managedMoneyNetChange": -7976,
        "openInterest": 415196,
        "netPctOfOi": 32.9,
        "ageDays": 8
      }
    },
    "score": {
      "configVersion": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
      "trendScore": -0.13,
      "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
      "labelZh": "中性偏空",
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "components": {
        "weightedZ": -0.0836,
        "agreement": 0.278,
        "strength": 0.087,
        "coverage": 1
      },
      "factors": [
        {
          "key": "ret1d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "当日涨跌",
          "weight": 0.22,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 1.009,
          "z": 0.564,
          "contribution": 0.199
        },
        {
          "key": "mom3d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "3 日动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.844,
          "z": -0.275,
          "contribution": -0.035
        },
        {
          "key": "mom5d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "5 日（周）动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.166,
          "z": 0.042,
          "contribution": 0.005
        },
        {
          "key": "emaTrend",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "日线 EMA 趋势",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.1894,
          "z": 0.106,
          "contribution": 0.017
        },
        {
          "key": "dxy",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美元指数变化",
          "weight": 0.12,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.071,
          "z": 0.219,
          "contribution": 0.042
        },
        {
          "key": "us10y",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美债收益率变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 3.1,
          "z": -0.777,
          "contribution": -0.099
        },
        {
          "key": "oiChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "持仓量变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -8.931,
          "z": -0.893,
          "contribution": -0.114
        },
        {
          "key": "taker",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "主动买卖比",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.9475,
          "z": -1.05,
          "contribution": -0.134
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.00000258,
          "z": -0.064,
          "contribution": -0.004
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingLevel",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率拥挤度",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00004351,
          "z": 0.065,
          "contribution": 0.004
        },
        {
          "key": "retailLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "散户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -16.5,
          "z": 0.825,
          "contribution": 0.053
        },
        {
          "key": "topLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "大户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -20.69,
          "z": -1.034,
          "contribution": -0.066
        }
      ]
    },
    "trendComparison": {
      "today": {
        "date": "2026-09-09",
        "trendScore": -0.13,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "中性偏空",
        "confidence": 0.45
      },
      "yesterday": {
        "date": "2026-09-08",
        "trendScore": -0.47,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "中性偏空",
        "confidence": 0.59
      },
      "delta": 0.34
    },
    "dataSummary": "系统研判「中性偏空」，趋势分 -0.13（置信度 45%），前一交易日为「中性偏空」（-0.47）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,397.70，日涨跌 +1.01%，日内振幅 2.11%；3 日 -0.84%，5 日 +0.17%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于金叉状态（间距 +0.19%，2026-08-05 金叉，距今 25 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 98.77（-0.07%），美债 10 年期收益率 4.837%（+3.1bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 -8.93%，资金费率日均 +0.0044%（前 7 日 +0.0046%），主动买卖比 0.948。主要偏多因子：当日涨跌、散户多空比变化；主要偏空因子：主动买卖比、持仓量变化。",
    "dataBlocks": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "收盘 $4,397.70，UTC 2026-09-09 00:00 开盘 $4,353.77，较前一交易日（2026-09-08）收盘 $4,353.77 +1.01%",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "日内高 $4,437.54 / 低 $4,345.66，振幅 2.11%；30 日区间 $4,288.00 – $4,700.63",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "动量：3 日 -0.84%，5 日 +0.17%，30 日 -0.21%；30 个交易日日波动率 1.78%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 $4,430.73 / EMA20 $4,422.40，间距 +0.19%（占收盘价），金叉状态（EMA10 在 EMA20 上方）；最近一次交叉：2026-08-05 金叉，距今 25 个交易日",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "美元指数 98.84 → 98.77（-0.07%），5 日 -0.90%",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "美国 10 年期国债收益率 4.806% → 4.837%（+3.1bp），5 日 +4.1bp",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续成交 41.0 万盎司（约 18.03 亿 USDT），近 5 个交易日成交量较前 5 日 -23.15%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续持仓量 8.8 万 → 8.0 万盎司（-8.93%），名义价值约 3.53 亿美元",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "资金费率（每 4 小时结算）日均 +0.0044%，前 7 日均值 +0.0046%，年化约 +9.5%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "主动买卖比 24h 汇总 0.948（买 19.9 万 / 卖 21.0 万盎司），9/24 小时买方占优",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "全市场账户多空比 3.021 → 2.522（-16.50%）；大户账户多空比 3.268 → 2.592（-20.69%）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "CFTC 持仓报告（2026-09-01）：COMEX 黄金管理基金净多 136,771 手，周变化 -7,976 手（周度数据，不计入趋势分）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "亚洲时段（UTC 00:00–06:00）：$4,353.77 → $4,402.47，+1.12%，区间 $4,345.66 – $4,404.16，成交 8.0 万盎司（占全日 19.6%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "欧洲时段（UTC 06:00–12:00）：$4,402.47 → $4,410.90，+0.19%，区间 $4,390.14 – $4,419.34，成交 7.9 万盎司（占全日 19.3%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "美洲时段（UTC 12:00–18:00）：$4,410.90 → $4,420.67，+0.22%，区间 $4,379.46 – $4,437.54，成交 20.6 万盎司（占全日 50.2%），全日放量时段",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "美盘尾段（UTC 18:00–24:00）：$4,420.68 → $4,397.70，-0.52%，区间 $4,397.04 – $4,425.74，成交 4.5 万盎司（占全日 10.9%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "aiStatus": "pending",
    "outlook": null,
    "analysis": null,
    "sources": {
      "perpDaily": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 1d)",
      "perpPhases": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 6h)",
      "indexPrice": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/indexPriceKlines (XAUUSDT)",
      "dxy": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "us10y": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "retailLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "taker": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topPositionLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "openInterest": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topAccountLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "funding": "https://www.binance.com",
      "macro": "Yahoo Finance chart API (DX-Y.NYB, ^TNX)",
      "cot": "https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/resource/72hh-3qpy.json (088691)"
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "missing": [],
      "warnings": []
    }
  },
  "aiMetadata": {
    "model": "grok-4.7",
    "generatedAt": null
  }
}