{
  "record": {
    "id": "gold-2026-09-08",
    "asset": "gold",
    "assetName": "黄金",
    "scope": "digital",
    "date": "2026-09-08",
    "dateLabel": "UTC交易日",
    "title": "黄金 · 2026-09-08 日度研判归档",
    "kind": "日度研判",
    "status": "data",
    "statusLabel": "数据与评分 · AI文字未生成",
    "summary": "系统研判「中性偏空」，趋势分 -0.47（置信度 59%），前一交易日为「中性偏多」（+0.04）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,353.77，日涨跌 -1.66%，日内振幅 2.15%；3 日 -2.90%，5 日 +0.53%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于金叉状态（间距 +0.30%，2026-08-05 金叉，距今 24 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 98.84（-0.32%），美债 10 年期收益率 4.806%（+2.2bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 +11.17%，资金费率日均 +0.0068%（前 7 日 +0.0063%），主动买卖比 0.986。主要偏多因子：美元指数变化、大户多空比变化；主要偏空因子：当日涨跌、持仓量变化。",
    "label": "中性偏空",
    "score": -0.47,
    "version": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
    "href": "/zh/research/archive/gold-2026-09-08/",
    "sourceHref": "/data/gold-ai/2026-09-08.json",
    "currentHref": "/zh/gold/ai/",
    "capturedAt": "2026-10-05T13:28:08Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.366Z"
  },
  "sourceSha256": "45bc0db42d16754ec063005660811020ebdd32dc3dcaeee78229c92b61c7c5a3",
  "document": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "symbol": "XAU",
    "tradingDate": "2026-09-08",
    "window": {
      "start": "2026-09-08T00:00:00Z",
      "end": "2026-09-09T00:00:00Z",
      "timezone": "UTC"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.366Z",
    "market": {
      "venue": "Binance XAUUSDT 永续",
      "open": 4427.2,
      "high": 4446.54,
      "low": 4351.12,
      "close": 4353.77,
      "prevClose": 4427.19,
      "prevDate": "2026-09-07",
      "gapPct": 0,
      "change1dPct": -1.658,
      "change3dPct": -2.902,
      "change5dPct": 0.53,
      "change30dPct": -0.006,
      "amplitudePct": 2.155,
      "volumeXau": 370369.93,
      "quoteVolumeUsdt": 1630544235,
      "volume5dChangePct": -0.41,
      "realizedVolDailyPct": 1.763,
      "realizedVolSamples": 30,
      "logRet1d": -0.016722934855418366,
      "logRet3d": -0.02944437638963346,
      "logRet5d": 0.005282926871309091,
      "high30d": 4700.63,
      "low30d": 4288,
      "tradingDays30d": 22,
      "indexClose": 4350.74,
      "basisPct": 0.07,
      "emaTrend": {
        "ema10": 4438.08,
        "ema20": 4425,
        "gapPct": 0.3002,
        "state": "golden",
        "lastCross": "golden",
        "lastCrossDate": "2026-08-05",
        "barsSinceCross": 24,
        "barsUsed": 115
      }
    },
    "phases": [
      {
        "key": "asia",
        "nameZh": "亚洲时段",
        "hours": "00:00–06:00",
        "open": 4427.2,
        "high": 4446.54,
        "low": 4418.93,
        "close": 4422.9,
        "changePct": -0.097,
        "rangePct": 0.624,
        "volumeXau": 83139.79,
        "volumeSharePct": 22.4
      },
      {
        "key": "europe",
        "nameZh": "欧洲时段",
        "hours": "06:00–12:00",
        "open": 4422.9,
        "high": 4423.91,
        "low": 4392.52,
        "close": 4410.55,
        "changePct": -0.279,
        "rangePct": 0.71,
        "volumeXau": 92246.18,
        "volumeSharePct": 24.9
      },
      {
        "key": "us",
        "nameZh": "美洲时段",
        "hours": "12:00–18:00",
        "open": 4410.54,
        "high": 4417.26,
        "low": 4385.89,
        "close": 4394.23,
        "changePct": -0.37,
        "rangePct": 0.711,
        "volumeXau": 119281.6,
        "volumeSharePct": 32.2
      },
      {
        "key": "late",
        "nameZh": "美盘尾段",
        "hours": "18:00–24:00",
        "open": 4394.23,
        "high": 4394.58,
        "low": 4351.12,
        "close": 4353.77,
        "changePct": -0.921,
        "rangePct": 0.989,
        "volumeXau": 75702.36,
        "volumeSharePct": 20.4
      }
    ],
    "derivatives": {
      "retailLongShort": {
        "start": 2.3523,
        "end": 3.0209,
        "changePct": 28.42,
        "longPctEnd": 75.13,
        "avg": 2.6224,
        "startAt": "2026-09-08T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-09T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topPositionLongShort": {
        "start": 1.644,
        "end": 1.6845,
        "changePct": 2.46,
        "longPctEnd": 62.75,
        "avg": 1.6371,
        "startAt": "2026-09-08T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-09T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "funding": {
        "intervalHours": 4,
        "settlements": [
          {
            "at": "2026-09-08T04:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00001177
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-08T08:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00002856
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-08T12:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00005443
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-08T16:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00005799
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-08T20:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00012079
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-09T00:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00013532
          }
        ],
        "avg": 0.00006814,
        "last": 0.00013532,
        "dayTotal": 0.00040886,
        "prev7dAvg": 0.00006331,
        "prev7dCount": 42,
        "annualizedPct": 14.92
      },
      "taker": {
        "ratio": 0.9856,
        "buyVol": 183808.5,
        "sellVol": 186498.55,
        "hourlyMax": 2.0058,
        "hourlyMin": 0.8434,
        "last": 1.2297,
        "hoursBuyDominant": 10,
        "hours": 24
      },
      "openInterest": {
        "start": 79388.96,
        "end": 88257.998,
        "startUsd": 351476465,
        "endUsd": 384258554,
        "change": 8869.038,
        "changePct": 11.172,
        "high": 88257.998,
        "low": 79388.96,
        "startAt": "2026-09-08T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-09T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topAccountLongShort": {
        "start": 2.5162,
        "end": 3.268,
        "changePct": 29.88,
        "longPctEnd": 76.57,
        "avg": 2.7727,
        "startAt": "2026-09-08T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-09T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      }
    },
    "macro": {
      "dxy": {
        "symbol": "DX-Y.NYB",
        "date": "2026-09-08",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-04",
        "close": 98.84,
        "prev": 99.16,
        "changePct": -0.323,
        "logRet": -0.0032324000287812923,
        "sigmaPct": 0.32,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dPct": -0.593
      },
      "us10y": {
        "symbol": "^TNX",
        "date": "2026-09-08",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-04",
        "close": 4.806,
        "prev": 4.784,
        "changeBp": 2.2,
        "sigmaBp": 4.06,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dBp": 4.8
      }
    },
    "positioning": {
      "cot": {
        "reportDate": "2026-09-01",
        "releasedOn": "2026-09-04",
        "managedMoneyLong": 149721,
        "managedMoneyShort": 12950,
        "managedMoneyNet": 136771,
        "managedMoneyNetChange": -7976,
        "openInterest": 415196,
        "netPctOfOi": 32.9,
        "ageDays": 7
      }
    },
    "score": {
      "configVersion": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
      "trendScore": -0.47,
      "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
      "labelZh": "中性偏空",
      "confidence": 0.59,
      "components": {
        "weightedZ": -0.2922,
        "agreement": 0.48,
        "strength": 0.313,
        "coverage": 1
      },
      "factors": [
        {
          "key": "ret1d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "当日涨跌",
          "weight": 0.22,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -1.658,
          "z": -0.949,
          "contribution": -0.334
        },
        {
          "key": "mom3d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "3 日动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -2.902,
          "z": -0.964,
          "contribution": -0.123
        },
        {
          "key": "mom5d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "5 日（周）动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.53,
          "z": 0.134,
          "contribution": 0.017
        },
        {
          "key": "emaTrend",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "日线 EMA 趋势",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.3002,
          "z": 0.17,
          "contribution": 0.027
        },
        {
          "key": "dxy",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美元指数变化",
          "weight": 0.12,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.323,
          "z": 1.01,
          "contribution": 0.194
        },
        {
          "key": "us10y",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美债收益率变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 2.2,
          "z": -0.542,
          "contribution": -0.069
        },
        {
          "key": "oiChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "持仓量变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 11.172,
          "z": -1.117,
          "contribution": -0.143
        },
        {
          "key": "taker",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "主动买卖比",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.9856,
          "z": -0.288,
          "contribution": -0.037
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00000483,
          "z": 0.121,
          "contribution": 0.008
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingLevel",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率拥挤度",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00006814,
          "z": -0.181,
          "contribution": -0.012
        },
        {
          "key": "retailLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "散户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 28.42,
          "z": -1.421,
          "contribution": -0.091
        },
        {
          "key": "topLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "大户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 29.88,
          "z": 1.494,
          "contribution": 0.096
        }
      ]
    },
    "trendComparison": {
      "today": {
        "date": "2026-09-08",
        "trendScore": -0.47,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "中性偏空",
        "confidence": 0.59
      },
      "yesterday": {
        "date": "2026-09-07",
        "trendScore": 0.04,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bull",
        "labelZh": "中性偏多",
        "confidence": 0.35
      },
      "delta": -0.51
    },
    "dataSummary": "系统研判「中性偏空」，趋势分 -0.47（置信度 59%），前一交易日为「中性偏多」（+0.04）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,353.77，日涨跌 -1.66%，日内振幅 2.15%；3 日 -2.90%，5 日 +0.53%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于金叉状态（间距 +0.30%，2026-08-05 金叉，距今 24 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 98.84（-0.32%），美债 10 年期收益率 4.806%（+2.2bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 +11.17%，资金费率日均 +0.0068%（前 7 日 +0.0063%），主动买卖比 0.986。主要偏多因子：美元指数变化、大户多空比变化；主要偏空因子：当日涨跌、持仓量变化。",
    "dataBlocks": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "收盘 $4,353.77，UTC 2026-09-08 00:00 开盘 $4,427.20，较前一交易日（2026-09-07）收盘 $4,427.19 -1.66%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日内高 $4,446.54 / 低 $4,351.12，振幅 2.15%；30 日区间 $4,288.00 – $4,700.63",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "动量：3 日 -2.90%，5 日 +0.53%，30 日 -0.01%；30 个交易日日波动率 1.76%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 $4,438.08 / EMA20 $4,425.00，间距 +0.30%（占收盘价），金叉状态（EMA10 在 EMA20 上方）；最近一次交叉：2026-08-05 金叉，距今 24 个交易日",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "美元指数 99.16 → 98.84（-0.32%），5 日 -0.59%",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "美国 10 年期国债收益率 4.784% → 4.806%（+2.2bp），5 日 +4.8bp",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续成交 37.0 万盎司（约 16.31 亿 USDT），近 5 个交易日成交量较前 5 日 -0.41%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续持仓量 7.9 万 → 8.8 万盎司（+11.17%），名义价值约 3.84 亿美元",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "资金费率（每 4 小时结算）日均 +0.0068%，前 7 日均值 +0.0063%，年化约 +14.9%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "主动买卖比 24h 汇总 0.986（买 18.4 万 / 卖 18.6 万盎司），10/24 小时买方占优",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "全市场账户多空比 2.352 → 3.021（+28.42%）；大户账户多空比 2.516 → 3.268（+29.88%）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "CFTC 持仓报告（2026-09-01）：COMEX 黄金管理基金净多 136,771 手，周变化 -7,976 手（周度数据，不计入趋势分）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "亚洲时段（UTC 00:00–06:00）：$4,427.20 → $4,422.90，-0.10%，区间 $4,418.93 – $4,446.54，成交 8.3 万盎司（占全日 22.4%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "欧洲时段（UTC 06:00–12:00）：$4,422.90 → $4,410.55，-0.28%，区间 $4,392.52 – $4,423.91，成交 9.2 万盎司（占全日 24.9%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美洲时段（UTC 12:00–18:00）：$4,410.54 → $4,394.23，-0.37%，区间 $4,385.89 – $4,417.26，成交 11.9 万盎司（占全日 32.2%），全日放量时段",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美盘尾段（UTC 18:00–24:00）：$4,394.23 → $4,353.77，-0.92%，区间 $4,351.12 – $4,394.58，成交 7.6 万盎司（占全日 20.4%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "aiStatus": "pending",
    "outlook": null,
    "analysis": null,
    "sources": {
      "perpDaily": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 1d)",
      "perpPhases": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 6h)",
      "indexPrice": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/indexPriceKlines (XAUUSDT)",
      "dxy": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "us10y": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "retailLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topPositionLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "funding": "https://www.binance.com",
      "taker": "https://www.binance.com",
      "openInterest": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topAccountLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "macro": "Yahoo Finance chart API (DX-Y.NYB, ^TNX)",
      "cot": "https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/resource/72hh-3qpy.json (088691)"
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "missing": [],
      "warnings": []
    }
  },
  "aiMetadata": {
    "model": "grok-4.7",
    "generatedAt": null
  }
}