{
  "record": {
    "id": "gold-2026-09-04",
    "asset": "gold",
    "assetName": "黄金",
    "scope": "digital",
    "date": "2026-09-04",
    "dateLabel": "UTC交易日",
    "title": "黄金 · 2026-09-04 日度研判归档",
    "kind": "日度研判",
    "status": "data",
    "statusLabel": "数据与评分 · AI文字未生成",
    "summary": "系统研判「中性偏空」，趋势分 -0.23（置信度 49%），前一交易日为「偏多」（+0.51）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,435.12，日涨跌 -1.09%，日内振幅 2.76%；3 日 +2.41%，5 日 -0.70%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于金叉状态（间距 +0.68%，2026-08-05 金叉，距今 22 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 99.16（+0.16%），美债 10 年期收益率 4.784%（+2.2bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 -9.56%，资金费率日均 +0.0069%（前 7 日 +0.0072%），主动买卖比 0.956。主要偏多因子：持仓量变化、3 日动量；主要偏空因子：当日涨跌、主动买卖比。",
    "label": "中性偏空",
    "score": -0.23,
    "version": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
    "href": "/zh/research/archive/gold-2026-09-04/",
    "sourceHref": "/data/gold-ai/2026-09-04.json",
    "currentHref": "/zh/gold/ai/",
    "capturedAt": "2026-10-05T13:28:08Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.360Z"
  },
  "sourceSha256": "c82b43eaf04fae7c5b021fb936cc92c38fc6205259fecc49294f43a3843e3aa0",
  "document": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "symbol": "XAU",
    "tradingDate": "2026-09-04",
    "window": {
      "start": "2026-09-04T00:00:00Z",
      "end": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z",
      "timezone": "UTC"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.360Z",
    "market": {
      "venue": "Binance XAUUSDT 永续",
      "open": 4483.86,
      "high": 4493.93,
      "low": 4370,
      "close": 4435.12,
      "prevClose": 4483.87,
      "prevDate": "2026-09-03",
      "gapPct": 0,
      "change1dPct": -1.087,
      "change3dPct": 2.408,
      "change5dPct": -0.697,
      "change30dPct": 3.555,
      "amplitudePct": 2.764,
      "volumeXau": 543875.26,
      "quoteVolumeUsdt": 2410819054,
      "volume5dChangePct": 16.56,
      "realizedVolDailyPct": 1.741,
      "realizedVolSamples": 30,
      "logRet1d": -0.010931839925507232,
      "logRet3d": 0.023795463335435196,
      "logRet5d": -0.0069899794231122435,
      "high30d": 4700.63,
      "low30d": 4229.18,
      "tradingDays30d": 22,
      "indexClose": 4435.31,
      "basisPct": -0.004,
      "emaTrend": {
        "ema10": 4463.39,
        "ema20": 4433.06,
        "gapPct": 0.6839,
        "state": "golden",
        "lastCross": "golden",
        "lastCrossDate": "2026-08-05",
        "barsSinceCross": 22,
        "barsUsed": 115
      }
    },
    "phases": [
      {
        "key": "asia",
        "nameZh": "亚洲时段",
        "hours": "00:00–06:00",
        "open": 4483.86,
        "high": 4490.29,
        "low": 4468.8,
        "close": 4475.53,
        "changePct": -0.186,
        "rangePct": 0.479,
        "volumeXau": 69151.22,
        "volumeSharePct": 12.7
      },
      {
        "key": "europe",
        "nameZh": "欧洲时段",
        "hours": "06:00–12:00",
        "open": 4475.53,
        "high": 4493.93,
        "low": 4463.6,
        "close": 4470.71,
        "changePct": -0.108,
        "rangePct": 0.678,
        "volumeXau": 73101.72,
        "volumeSharePct": 13.4
      },
      {
        "key": "us",
        "nameZh": "美洲时段",
        "hours": "12:00–18:00",
        "open": 4470.72,
        "high": 4482.23,
        "low": 4370,
        "close": 4420.38,
        "changePct": -1.126,
        "rangePct": 2.51,
        "volumeXau": 373873.18,
        "volumeSharePct": 68.7
      },
      {
        "key": "late",
        "nameZh": "美盘尾段",
        "hours": "18:00–24:00",
        "open": 4420.31,
        "high": 4441.13,
        "low": 4415.24,
        "close": 4435.12,
        "changePct": 0.335,
        "rangePct": 0.586,
        "volumeXau": 27749.14,
        "volumeSharePct": 5.1
      }
    ],
    "derivatives": {
      "retailLongShort": {
        "start": 2.0979,
        "end": 2.1008,
        "changePct": 0.14,
        "longPctEnd": 67.75,
        "avg": 2.0918,
        "startAt": "2026-09-04T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "taker": {
        "ratio": 0.9561,
        "buyVol": 265824.01,
        "sellVol": 278036.81,
        "hourlyMax": 1.2876,
        "hourlyMin": 0.732,
        "last": 0.8989,
        "hoursBuyDominant": 9,
        "hours": 24
      },
      "topPositionLongShort": {
        "start": 1.9165,
        "end": 2.0506,
        "changePct": 7,
        "longPctEnd": 67.22,
        "avg": 1.9916,
        "startAt": "2026-09-04T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "openInterest": {
        "start": 85896.143,
        "end": 77686.767,
        "startUsd": 385139834,
        "endUsd": 344549456,
        "change": -8209.376,
        "changePct": -9.557,
        "high": 86498.75,
        "low": 77686.767,
        "startAt": "2026-09-04T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topAccountLongShort": {
        "start": 2.1114,
        "end": 2.2573,
        "changePct": 6.91,
        "longPctEnd": 69.3,
        "avg": 2.2098,
        "startAt": "2026-09-04T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "funding": {
        "intervalHours": 4,
        "settlements": [
          {
            "at": "2026-09-04T04:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00006615
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-04T08:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00006447
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-04T12:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00010694
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-04T16:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00004929
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-04T20:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00012418
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0
          }
        ],
        "avg": 0.00006851,
        "last": 0,
        "dayTotal": 0.00041103,
        "prev7dAvg": 0.0000717,
        "prev7dCount": 42,
        "annualizedPct": 15
      }
    },
    "macro": {
      "dxy": {
        "symbol": "DX-Y.NYB",
        "date": "2026-09-04",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-03",
        "close": 99.16,
        "prev": 99,
        "changePct": 0.162,
        "logRet": 0.0016148939637159953,
        "sigmaPct": 0.318,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dPct": -0.542
      },
      "us10y": {
        "symbol": "^TNX",
        "date": "2026-09-04",
        "prevDate": "2026-09-03",
        "close": 4.784,
        "prev": 4.762,
        "changeBp": 2.2,
        "sigmaBp": 4.13,
        "samples": 29,
        "change5dBp": 6.4
      }
    },
    "positioning": {
      "cot": {
        "reportDate": "2026-09-01",
        "releasedOn": "2026-09-04",
        "managedMoneyLong": 149721,
        "managedMoneyShort": 12950,
        "managedMoneyNet": 136771,
        "managedMoneyNetChange": -7976,
        "openInterest": 415196,
        "netPctOfOi": 32.9,
        "ageDays": 3
      }
    },
    "score": {
      "configVersion": "2026-09-25.gold.2",
      "trendScore": -0.23,
      "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
      "labelZh": "中性偏空",
      "confidence": 0.49,
      "components": {
        "weightedZ": -0.1445,
        "agreement": 0.337,
        "strength": 0.153,
        "coverage": 1
      },
      "factors": [
        {
          "key": "ret1d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "当日涨跌",
          "weight": 0.22,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -1.087,
          "z": -0.628,
          "contribution": -0.221
        },
        {
          "key": "mom3d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "3 日动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 2.408,
          "z": 0.789,
          "contribution": 0.101
        },
        {
          "key": "mom5d",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "5 日（周）动量",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.697,
          "z": -0.18,
          "contribution": -0.023
        },
        {
          "key": "emaTrend",
          "group": "price",
          "nameZh": "日线 EMA 趋势",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.6839,
          "z": 0.393,
          "contribution": 0.063
        },
        {
          "key": "dxy",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美元指数变化",
          "weight": 0.12,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.162,
          "z": -0.508,
          "contribution": -0.098
        },
        {
          "key": "us10y",
          "group": "macro",
          "nameZh": "美债收益率变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 2.2,
          "z": -0.533,
          "contribution": -0.068
        },
        {
          "key": "oiChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "持仓量变化",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -9.557,
          "z": 0.956,
          "contribution": 0.122
        },
        {
          "key": "taker",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "主动买卖比",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.9561,
          "z": -0.878,
          "contribution": -0.112
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingChange",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.00000319,
          "z": -0.08,
          "contribution": -0.005
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingLevel",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "资金费率拥挤度",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00006851,
          "z": -0.185,
          "contribution": -0.012
        },
        {
          "key": "retailLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "散户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.14,
          "z": -0.007,
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "key": "topLs",
          "group": "positioning",
          "nameZh": "大户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.04,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 6.91,
          "z": 0.346,
          "contribution": 0.022
        }
      ]
    },
    "trendComparison": {
      "today": {
        "date": "2026-09-04",
        "trendScore": -0.23,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "中性偏空",
        "confidence": 0.49
      },
      "yesterday": {
        "date": "2026-09-03",
        "trendScore": 0.51,
        "label": "lean_bull",
        "labelZh": "偏多",
        "confidence": 0.61
      },
      "delta": -0.74
    },
    "dataSummary": "系统研判「中性偏空」，趋势分 -0.23（置信度 49%），前一交易日为「偏多」（+0.51）。黄金（XAUUSDT 永续）收于 $4,435.12，日涨跌 -1.09%，日内振幅 2.76%；3 日 +2.41%，5 日 -0.70%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于金叉状态（间距 +0.68%，2026-08-05 金叉，距今 22 个交易日）。宏观方面，美元指数 99.16（+0.16%），美债 10 年期收益率 4.784%（+2.2bp）。合约方面，永续持仓量 -9.56%，资金费率日均 +0.0069%（前 7 日 +0.0072%），主动买卖比 0.956。主要偏多因子：持仓量变化、3 日动量；主要偏空因子：当日涨跌、主动买卖比。",
    "dataBlocks": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "收盘 $4,435.12，UTC 2026-09-04 00:00 开盘 $4,483.86，较前一交易日（2026-09-03）收盘 $4,483.87 -1.09%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日内高 $4,493.93 / 低 $4,370.00，振幅 2.76%；30 日区间 $4,229.18 – $4,700.63",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "动量：3 日 +2.41%，5 日 -0.70%，30 日 +3.56%；30 个交易日日波动率 1.74%",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 $4,463.39 / EMA20 $4,433.06，间距 +0.68%（占收盘价），金叉状态（EMA10 在 EMA20 上方）；最近一次交叉：2026-08-05 金叉，距今 22 个交易日",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "美元指数 99.00 → 99.16（+0.16%），5 日 -0.54%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美国 10 年期国债收益率 4.762% → 4.784%（+2.2bp），5 日 +6.4bp",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续成交 54.4 万盎司（约 24.11 亿 USDT），近 5 个交易日成交量较前 5 日 +16.56%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续持仓量 8.6 万 → 7.8 万盎司（-9.56%），名义价值约 3.45 亿美元",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "资金费率（每 4 小时结算）日均 +0.0069%，前 7 日均值 +0.0072%，年化约 +15.0%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "主动买卖比 24h 汇总 0.956（买 26.6 万 / 卖 27.8 万盎司），9/24 小时买方占优",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "全市场账户多空比 2.098 → 2.101（+0.14%）；大户账户多空比 2.111 → 2.257（+6.91%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "CFTC 持仓报告（2026-09-01）：COMEX 黄金管理基金净多 136,771 手，周变化 -7,976 手（周度数据，不计入趋势分）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "亚洲时段（UTC 00:00–06:00）：$4,483.86 → $4,475.53，-0.19%，区间 $4,468.80 – $4,490.29，成交 6.9 万盎司（占全日 12.7%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "欧洲时段（UTC 06:00–12:00）：$4,475.53 → $4,470.71，-0.11%，区间 $4,463.60 – $4,493.93，成交 7.3 万盎司（占全日 13.4%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美洲时段（UTC 12:00–18:00）：$4,470.72 → $4,420.38，-1.13%，区间 $4,370.00 – $4,482.23，成交 37.4 万盎司（占全日 68.7%），全日放量时段",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "美盘尾段（UTC 18:00–24:00）：$4,420.31 → $4,435.12，+0.34%，区间 $4,415.24 – $4,441.13，成交 2.8 万盎司（占全日 5.1%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "aiStatus": "pending",
    "outlook": null,
    "analysis": null,
    "sources": {
      "perpDaily": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 1d)",
      "perpPhases": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines (XAUUSDT, 6h)",
      "indexPrice": "https://www.binance.com/fapi/v1/indexPriceKlines (XAUUSDT)",
      "dxy": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "us10y": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com",
      "retailLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "taker": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topPositionLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "openInterest": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topAccountLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "funding": "https://www.binance.com",
      "macro": "Yahoo Finance chart API (DX-Y.NYB, ^TNX)",
      "cot": "https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/resource/72hh-3qpy.json (088691)"
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "missing": [],
      "warnings": []
    }
  },
  "aiMetadata": {
    "model": "grok-4.7",
    "generatedAt": null
  }
}