{
  "record": {
    "id": "btc-2026-09-19",
    "asset": "btc",
    "assetName": "比特币",
    "scope": "digital",
    "date": "2026-09-19",
    "dateLabel": "UTC交易日",
    "title": "比特币 · 2026-09-19 日度研判归档",
    "kind": "日度研判",
    "status": "data",
    "statusLabel": "数据与评分 · AI文字未生成",
    "summary": "系统研判「偏多」，趋势分 +0.78（置信度 61%），前一日为「看多」（+1.56）。BTC 收于 $81,249.99，日涨跌 +0.45%，日内振幅 1.37%；3 日 +6.62%，7 日 +5.14%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于金叉状态（间距 +0.94%，2026-08-19 金叉，距今 31 天）。衍生品方面，永续持仓量 -0.27%，资金费率日均 +0.0100%（前 7 日 +0.0061%），主动买卖比 0.992，全市场账户多空比 0.902 → 0.942，大户账户多空比 0.983 → 1.094。恐惧贪婪指数 71（贪婪）。主要偏多因子：3 日动量、大户多空比变化；主要偏空因子：散户多空比变化。",
    "label": "偏多",
    "score": 0.78,
    "version": "2026-09-25.2",
    "href": "/zh/research/archive/btc-2026-09-19/",
    "sourceHref": "/data/btc-ai/2026-09-19.json",
    "currentHref": "/zh/bitcoin/ai/",
    "capturedAt": "2026-10-05T13:28:08Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.262Z"
  },
  "sourceSha256": "da1b3ab86bc1cdfb50b025a1a7d368bf280deb603c8b3fb523f6a7ffdbb57151",
  "document": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "symbol": "BTC",
    "tradingDate": "2026-09-19",
    "window": {
      "start": "2026-09-19T00:00:00Z",
      "end": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
      "timezone": "UTC"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.262Z",
    "market": {
      "open": 80883.86,
      "high": 81951,
      "low": 80844.58,
      "close": 81249.99,
      "prevClose": 80883.87,
      "change1dPct": 0.453,
      "change3dPct": 6.619,
      "change7dPct": 5.139,
      "change30dPct": 11.263,
      "amplitudePct": 1.368,
      "volumeBtc": 10663.77,
      "quoteVolumeUsdt": 867621846,
      "volume7dChangePct": 8.92,
      "realizedVolDailyPct": 2.463,
      "realizedVolSamples": 30,
      "logRet1d": 0.0045162759007227075,
      "logRet3d": 0.06409036715942418,
      "logRet7d": 0.050111942111101315,
      "high30d": 82300,
      "low30d": 73027.02,
      "emaTrend": {
        "ema10": 78401.12,
        "ema20": 77633.59,
        "gapPct": 0.9447,
        "state": "golden",
        "lastCross": "golden",
        "lastCrossDate": "2026-08-19",
        "barsSinceCross": 31,
        "barsUsed": 151
      }
    },
    "phases": [
      {
        "key": "early",
        "nameZh": "早段",
        "hours": "00:00–06:00",
        "open": 80883.86,
        "high": 81741,
        "low": 80844.58,
        "close": 81040.01,
        "changePct": 0.193,
        "rangePct": 1.108,
        "volumeBtc": 2503.62,
        "volumeSharePct": 23.5
      },
      {
        "key": "morning",
        "nameZh": "早午后",
        "hours": "06:00–12:00",
        "open": 81040.01,
        "high": 81528.01,
        "low": 80925.76,
        "close": 81302.63,
        "changePct": 0.324,
        "rangePct": 0.743,
        "volumeBtc": 2111.25,
        "volumeSharePct": 19.8
      },
      {
        "key": "afternoon",
        "nameZh": "午后",
        "hours": "12:00–18:00",
        "open": 81302.63,
        "high": 81951,
        "low": 81183.28,
        "close": 81464.01,
        "changePct": 0.198,
        "rangePct": 0.944,
        "volumeBtc": 3580.12,
        "volumeSharePct": 33.6
      },
      {
        "key": "close",
        "nameZh": "收市",
        "hours": "18:00–24:00",
        "open": 81464,
        "high": 81534.01,
        "low": 80904.46,
        "close": 81249.99,
        "changePct": -0.263,
        "rangePct": 0.773,
        "volumeBtc": 2468.78,
        "volumeSharePct": 23.2
      }
    ],
    "derivatives": {
      "topPositionLongShort": {
        "start": 1.9755,
        "end": 2.0698,
        "changePct": 4.77,
        "longPctEnd": 67.42,
        "avg": 2.0267,
        "startAt": "2026-09-19T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "taker": {
        "ratio": 0.9917,
        "buyVol": 37406.53,
        "sellVol": 37721.01,
        "hourlyMax": 1.6397,
        "hourlyMin": 0.6762,
        "last": 1.1016,
        "hoursBuyDominant": 9,
        "hours": 24
      },
      "funding": {
        "settlements": [
          {
            "at": "2026-09-19T08:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-19T16:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.0001
          }
        ],
        "openRate": 0.00006643,
        "avg": 0.0001,
        "last": 0.0001,
        "prev7dAvg": 0.00006069,
        "prev7dCount": 21,
        "annualizedPct": 10.95
      },
      "openInterest": {
        "start": 107938.52,
        "end": 107646.325,
        "startUsd": 8728232543,
        "endUsd": 8743637336,
        "change": -292.195,
        "changePct": -0.271,
        "high": 108845.916,
        "low": 107426.428,
        "startAt": "2026-09-19T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topAccountLongShort": {
        "start": 0.9826,
        "end": 1.0942,
        "changePct": 11.36,
        "longPctEnd": 52.25,
        "avg": 1.0758,
        "startAt": "2026-09-19T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "retailLongShort": {
        "start": 0.9015,
        "end": 0.9421,
        "changePct": 4.5,
        "longPctEnd": 48.51,
        "avg": 0.9392,
        "startAt": "2026-09-19T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      }
    },
    "sentiment": {
      "fgi": {
        "value": 71,
        "classification": "Greed",
        "classificationZh": "贪婪",
        "prev": 56,
        "prevClassificationZh": "贪婪",
        "change": 15,
        "at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "score": {
      "configVersion": "2026-09-25.2",
      "trendScore": 0.78,
      "label": "lean_bull",
      "labelZh": "偏多",
      "confidence": 0.61,
      "components": {
        "weightedZ": 0.4873,
        "agreement": 0.4,
        "strength": 0.52,
        "coverage": 1
      },
      "factors": [
        {
          "key": "ret1d",
          "nameZh": "当日涨跌",
          "weight": 0.25,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.453,
          "z": 0.183,
          "contribution": 0.073
        },
        {
          "key": "mom3d",
          "nameZh": "3 日动量",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 6.619,
          "z": 1.502,
          "contribution": 0.24
        },
        {
          "key": "mom7d",
          "nameZh": "7 日动量",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 5.139,
          "z": 0.769,
          "contribution": 0.123
        },
        {
          "key": "emaTrend",
          "nameZh": "日线 EMA 趋势",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.9447,
          "z": 0.384,
          "contribution": 0.061
        },
        {
          "key": "oiChange",
          "nameZh": "持仓量变化",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.271,
          "z": -0.09,
          "contribution": -0.014
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingChange",
          "nameZh": "资金费率变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00003931,
          "z": 0.786,
          "contribution": 0.063
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingLevel",
          "nameZh": "资金费率拥挤度",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.0001,
          "z": 0,
          "contribution": 0
        },
        {
          "key": "taker",
          "nameZh": "主动买卖比",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.9917,
          "z": -0.166,
          "contribution": -0.027
        },
        {
          "key": "retailLs",
          "nameZh": "散户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 4.5,
          "z": -0.901,
          "contribution": -0.072
        },
        {
          "key": "topLs",
          "nameZh": "大户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 11.36,
          "z": 2.272,
          "contribution": 0.182
        },
        {
          "key": "fgiChange",
          "nameZh": "恐惧贪婪指数变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 15,
          "z": 1.875,
          "contribution": 0.15
        }
      ]
    },
    "trendComparison": {
      "today": {
        "date": "2026-09-19",
        "trendScore": 0.78,
        "label": "lean_bull",
        "labelZh": "偏多",
        "confidence": 0.61
      },
      "yesterday": {
        "date": "2026-09-18",
        "trendScore": 1.56,
        "label": "bull",
        "labelZh": "看多",
        "confidence": 0.84
      },
      "delta": -0.78
    },
    "dataSummary": "系统研判「偏多」，趋势分 +0.78（置信度 61%），前一日为「看多」（+1.56）。BTC 收于 $81,249.99，日涨跌 +0.45%，日内振幅 1.37%；3 日 +6.62%，7 日 +5.14%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于金叉状态（间距 +0.94%，2026-08-19 金叉，距今 31 天）。衍生品方面，永续持仓量 -0.27%，资金费率日均 +0.0100%（前 7 日 +0.0061%），主动买卖比 0.992，全市场账户多空比 0.902 → 0.942，大户账户多空比 0.983 → 1.094。恐惧贪婪指数 71（贪婪）。主要偏多因子：3 日动量、大户多空比变化；主要偏空因子：散户多空比变化。",
    "dataBlocks": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "收盘 $81,249.99，UTC 2026-09-19 00:00 开盘 $80,883.86，日涨跌 +0.45%（前收 $80,883.87）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "日内高 $81,951.00 / 低 $80,844.58，振幅 1.37%；30 日区间 $73,027.02 – $82,300.00",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "动量：3 日 +6.62%，7 日 +5.14%，30 日 +11.26%；30 日日波动率 2.46%",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 $78,401.12 / EMA20 $77,633.59，间距 +0.94%（占收盘价），金叉状态（EMA10 在 EMA20 上方）；最近一次交叉：2026-08-19 金叉，距今 31 天",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "现货成交 10,664 BTC（约 8.68 亿 USDT），近 7 日成交量较前 7 日 +8.92%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续持仓量 107,939 → 107,646 BTC（-0.27%，-292 BTC），名义价值约 87.44 亿美元",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "资金费率日均 +0.0100%（08:00 +0.0100% / 16:00 +0.0100% / 次日 00:00 +0.0100%），前 7 日均值 +0.0061%，年化约 +10.9%",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "主动买卖比 24h 汇总 0.992（买 37,407 / 卖 37,721 BTC），9/24 小时买方占优",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "全市场账户多空比 0.902 → 0.942（+4.50%）；大户账户多空比 0.983 → 1.094（+11.36%）；大户持仓多空比收于 2.070",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "恐惧贪婪指数 56 → 71（贪婪，+15）",
            "highlight": "green"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "早段（UTC 00:00–06:00）：$80,883.86 → $81,040.01，+0.19%，区间 $80,844.58 – $81,741.00，成交 2,504 BTC（占全日 23.5%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "早午后（UTC 06:00–12:00）：$81,040.01 → $81,302.63，+0.32%，区间 $80,925.76 – $81,528.01，成交 2,111 BTC（占全日 19.8%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "午后（UTC 12:00–18:00）：$81,302.63 → $81,464.01，+0.20%，区间 $81,183.28 – $81,951.00，成交 3,580 BTC（占全日 33.6%），全日放量时段",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "收市（UTC 18:00–24:00）：$81,464.00 → $81,249.99，-0.26%，区间 $80,904.46 – $81,534.01，成交 2,469 BTC（占全日 23.2%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "aiStatus": "pending",
    "outlook": null,
    "analysis": null,
    "sources": {
      "spotDaily": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/klines (1d)",
      "spotPhases": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/klines (6h)",
      "topPositionLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "taker": "https://www.binance.com",
      "funding": "https://www.binance.com",
      "openInterest": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topAccountLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "retailLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "fgi": "https://api.alternative.me/fng/"
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "missing": [],
      "warnings": []
    }
  },
  "aiMetadata": {
    "model": "grok-4.7",
    "generatedAt": null
  }
}