{
  "record": {
    "id": "btc-2026-09-14",
    "asset": "btc",
    "assetName": "比特币",
    "scope": "digital",
    "date": "2026-09-14",
    "dateLabel": "UTC交易日",
    "title": "比特币 · 2026-09-14 日度研判归档",
    "kind": "日度研判",
    "status": "data",
    "statusLabel": "数据与评分 · AI文字未生成",
    "summary": "系统研判「中性偏多」，趋势分 +0.25（置信度 48%），前一日为「中性偏空」（-0.35）。BTC 收于 $78,189.21，日涨跌 +1.75%，日内振幅 4.18%；3 日 +1.25%，7 日 -1.17%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于金叉状态（间距 +0.91%，2026-08-19 金叉，距今 26 天）。衍生品方面，永续持仓量 -1.32%，资金费率日均 +0.0053%（前 7 日 +0.0055%），主动买卖比 0.998，全市场账户多空比 1.663 → 1.163，大户账户多空比 1.753 → 1.214。恐惧贪婪指数 57（贪婪）。主要偏多因子：当日涨跌、散户多空比变化；主要偏空因子：大户多空比变化、持仓量变化。",
    "label": "中性偏多",
    "score": 0.25,
    "version": "2026-09-25.2",
    "href": "/zh/research/archive/btc-2026-09-14/",
    "sourceHref": "/data/btc-ai/2026-09-14.json",
    "currentHref": "/zh/bitcoin/ai/",
    "capturedAt": "2026-10-05T13:28:08Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.249Z"
  },
  "sourceSha256": "f50b73119f11e8223cd090eb56c2f3c8b0d635b0abffaf88f5dd9f041b4b48c9",
  "document": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "symbol": "BTC",
    "tradingDate": "2026-09-14",
    "window": {
      "start": "2026-09-14T00:00:00Z",
      "end": "2026-09-15T00:00:00Z",
      "timezone": "UTC"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.249Z",
    "market": {
      "open": 76842.01,
      "high": 79600,
      "low": 76388.72,
      "close": 78189.21,
      "prevClose": 76842.01,
      "change1dPct": 1.753,
      "change3dPct": 1.248,
      "change7dPct": -1.166,
      "change30dPct": 23.941,
      "amplitudePct": 4.179,
      "volumeBtc": 15413.49,
      "quoteVolumeUsdt": 1204563026,
      "volume7dChangePct": 4.31,
      "realizedVolDailyPct": 2.477,
      "realizedVolSamples": 30,
      "logRet1d": 0.017380162682425288,
      "logRet3d": 0.012399355305864222,
      "logRet7d": -0.011733037879184635,
      "high30d": 82300,
      "low30d": 62716,
      "emaTrend": {
        "ema10": 77848.5,
        "ema20": 77135.47,
        "gapPct": 0.9119,
        "state": "golden",
        "lastCross": "golden",
        "lastCrossDate": "2026-08-19",
        "barsSinceCross": 26,
        "barsUsed": 151
      }
    },
    "phases": [
      {
        "key": "early",
        "nameZh": "早段",
        "hours": "00:00–06:00",
        "open": 76842.01,
        "high": 77869.82,
        "low": 76388.72,
        "close": 77611.79,
        "changePct": 1.002,
        "rangePct": 1.927,
        "volumeBtc": 4065.05,
        "volumeSharePct": 26.4
      },
      {
        "key": "morning",
        "nameZh": "早午后",
        "hours": "06:00–12:00",
        "open": 77611.79,
        "high": 78374.01,
        "low": 77379.41,
        "close": 77776,
        "changePct": 0.212,
        "rangePct": 1.282,
        "volumeBtc": 2816.61,
        "volumeSharePct": 18.3
      },
      {
        "key": "afternoon",
        "nameZh": "午后",
        "hours": "12:00–18:00",
        "open": 77776,
        "high": 79048.44,
        "low": 77481.98,
        "close": 78937.98,
        "changePct": 1.494,
        "rangePct": 2.014,
        "volumeBtc": 5088.01,
        "volumeSharePct": 33
      },
      {
        "key": "close",
        "nameZh": "收市",
        "hours": "18:00–24:00",
        "open": 78937.98,
        "high": 79600,
        "low": 78131.3,
        "close": 78189.21,
        "changePct": -0.949,
        "rangePct": 1.861,
        "volumeBtc": 3443.81,
        "volumeSharePct": 22.3
      }
    ],
    "derivatives": {
      "topAccountLongShort": {
        "start": 1.7533,
        "end": 1.2139,
        "changePct": -30.76,
        "longPctEnd": 54.83,
        "avg": 1.4547,
        "startAt": "2026-09-14T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-15T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "retailLongShort": {
        "start": 1.6631,
        "end": 1.1631,
        "changePct": -30.06,
        "longPctEnd": 53.77,
        "avg": 1.4085,
        "startAt": "2026-09-14T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-15T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topPositionLongShort": {
        "start": 2.3265,
        "end": 2.0637,
        "changePct": -11.3,
        "longPctEnd": 67.36,
        "avg": 2.156,
        "startAt": "2026-09-14T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-15T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "funding": {
        "settlements": [
          {
            "at": "2026-09-14T08:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00008037
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-14T16:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.0000422
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-15T00:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00003563
          }
        ],
        "openRate": 0.00007157,
        "avg": 0.00005273,
        "last": 0.00003563,
        "prev7dAvg": 0.00005547,
        "prev7dCount": 21,
        "annualizedPct": 5.77
      },
      "openInterest": {
        "start": 104897.336,
        "end": 103517.289,
        "startUsd": 8057025797,
        "endUsd": 8092805675,
        "change": -1380.047,
        "changePct": -1.316,
        "high": 106679.528,
        "low": 103517.289,
        "startAt": "2026-09-14T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-15T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "taker": {
        "ratio": 0.9979,
        "buyVol": 82678.68,
        "sellVol": 82856.43,
        "hourlyMax": 1.3781,
        "hourlyMin": 0.6269,
        "last": 0.7148,
        "hoursBuyDominant": 11,
        "hours": 24
      }
    },
    "sentiment": {
      "fgi": {
        "value": 57,
        "classification": "Greed",
        "classificationZh": "贪婪",
        "prev": 61,
        "prevClassificationZh": "贪婪",
        "change": -4,
        "at": "2026-09-14T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "score": {
      "configVersion": "2026-09-25.2",
      "trendScore": 0.25,
      "label": "neutral_lean_bull",
      "labelZh": "中性偏多",
      "confidence": 0.48,
      "components": {
        "weightedZ": 0.1593,
        "agreement": 0.303,
        "strength": 0.167,
        "coverage": 1
      },
      "factors": [
        {
          "key": "ret1d",
          "nameZh": "当日涨跌",
          "weight": 0.25,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 1.753,
          "z": 0.702,
          "contribution": 0.281
        },
        {
          "key": "mom3d",
          "nameZh": "3 日动量",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 1.248,
          "z": 0.289,
          "contribution": 0.046
        },
        {
          "key": "mom7d",
          "nameZh": "7 日动量",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -1.166,
          "z": -0.179,
          "contribution": -0.029
        },
        {
          "key": "emaTrend",
          "nameZh": "日线 EMA 趋势",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.9119,
          "z": 0.368,
          "contribution": 0.059
        },
        {
          "key": "oiChange",
          "nameZh": "持仓量变化",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -1.316,
          "z": -0.439,
          "contribution": -0.07
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingChange",
          "nameZh": "资金费率变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.00000274,
          "z": -0.055,
          "contribution": -0.004
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingLevel",
          "nameZh": "资金费率拥挤度",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00005273,
          "z": 0.236,
          "contribution": 0.019
        },
        {
          "key": "taker",
          "nameZh": "主动买卖比",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.9979,
          "z": -0.042,
          "contribution": -0.007
        },
        {
          "key": "retailLs",
          "nameZh": "散户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -30.06,
          "z": 3,
          "contribution": 0.24
        },
        {
          "key": "topLs",
          "nameZh": "大户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -30.76,
          "z": -3,
          "contribution": -0.24
        },
        {
          "key": "fgiChange",
          "nameZh": "恐惧贪婪指数变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -4,
          "z": -0.5,
          "contribution": -0.04
        }
      ]
    },
    "trendComparison": {
      "today": {
        "date": "2026-09-14",
        "trendScore": 0.25,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bull",
        "labelZh": "中性偏多",
        "confidence": 0.48
      },
      "yesterday": {
        "date": "2026-09-13",
        "trendScore": -0.35,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "中性偏空",
        "confidence": 0.49
      },
      "delta": 0.6
    },
    "dataSummary": "系统研判「中性偏多」，趋势分 +0.25（置信度 48%），前一日为「中性偏空」（-0.35）。BTC 收于 $78,189.21，日涨跌 +1.75%，日内振幅 4.18%；3 日 +1.25%，7 日 -1.17%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于金叉状态（间距 +0.91%，2026-08-19 金叉，距今 26 天）。衍生品方面，永续持仓量 -1.32%，资金费率日均 +0.0053%（前 7 日 +0.0055%），主动买卖比 0.998，全市场账户多空比 1.663 → 1.163，大户账户多空比 1.753 → 1.214。恐惧贪婪指数 57（贪婪）。主要偏多因子：当日涨跌、散户多空比变化；主要偏空因子：大户多空比变化、持仓量变化。",
    "dataBlocks": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "收盘 $78,189.21，UTC 2026-09-14 00:00 开盘 $76,842.01，日涨跌 +1.75%（前收 $76,842.01）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "日内高 $79,600.00 / 低 $76,388.72，振幅 4.18%；30 日区间 $62,716.00 – $82,300.00",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "动量：3 日 +1.25%，7 日 -1.17%，30 日 +23.94%；30 日日波动率 2.48%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 $77,848.50 / EMA20 $77,135.47，间距 +0.91%（占收盘价），金叉状态（EMA10 在 EMA20 上方）；最近一次交叉：2026-08-19 金叉，距今 26 天",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "现货成交 15,413 BTC（约 12.05 亿 USDT），近 7 日成交量较前 7 日 +4.31%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续持仓量 104,897 → 103,517 BTC（-1.32%，-1,380 BTC），名义价值约 80.93 亿美元",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "资金费率日均 +0.0053%（08:00 +0.0080% / 16:00 +0.0042% / 次日 00:00 +0.0036%），前 7 日均值 +0.0055%，年化约 +5.8%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "主动买卖比 24h 汇总 0.998（买 82,679 / 卖 82,856 BTC），11/24 小时买方占优",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "全市场账户多空比 1.663 → 1.163（-30.06%）；大户账户多空比 1.753 → 1.214（-30.76%）；大户持仓多空比收于 2.064",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "恐惧贪婪指数 61 → 57（贪婪，-4）",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "早段（UTC 00:00–06:00）：$76,842.01 → $77,611.79，+1.00%，区间 $76,388.72 – $77,869.82，成交 4,065 BTC（占全日 26.4%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "早午后（UTC 06:00–12:00）：$77,611.79 → $77,776.00，+0.21%，区间 $77,379.41 – $78,374.01，成交 2,817 BTC（占全日 18.3%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "午后（UTC 12:00–18:00）：$77,776.00 → $78,937.98，+1.49%，区间 $77,481.98 – $79,048.44，成交 5,088 BTC（占全日 33%），全日放量时段",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "收市（UTC 18:00–24:00）：$78,937.98 → $78,189.21，-0.95%，区间 $78,131.30 – $79,600.00，成交 3,444 BTC（占全日 22.3%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "aiStatus": "pending",
    "outlook": null,
    "analysis": null,
    "sources": {
      "spotDaily": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/klines (1d)",
      "spotPhases": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/klines (6h)",
      "topAccountLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "retailLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topPositionLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "funding": "https://www.binance.com",
      "openInterest": "https://www.binance.com",
      "taker": "https://www.binance.com",
      "fgi": "https://api.alternative.me/fng/"
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "missing": [],
      "warnings": []
    }
  },
  "aiMetadata": {
    "model": "grok-4.7",
    "generatedAt": null
  }
}