{
  "record": {
    "id": "btc-2026-09-13",
    "asset": "btc",
    "assetName": "比特币",
    "scope": "digital",
    "date": "2026-09-13",
    "dateLabel": "UTC交易日",
    "title": "比特币 · 2026-09-13 日度研判归档",
    "kind": "日度研判",
    "status": "data",
    "statusLabel": "数据与评分 · AI文字未生成",
    "summary": "系统研判「中性偏空」，趋势分 -0.35（置信度 49%），前一日为「中性偏空」（-0.09）。BTC 收于 $76,842.01，日涨跌 -0.56%，日内振幅 1.23%；3 日 +0.36%，7 日 -4.36%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于金叉状态（间距 +0.97%，2026-08-19 金叉，距今 25 天）。衍生品方面，永续持仓量 +1.55%，资金费率日均 +0.0063%（前 7 日 +0.0050%），主动买卖比 0.944，全市场账户多空比 1.654 → 1.663，大户账户多空比 1.726 → 1.753。恐惧贪婪指数 61（贪婪）。主要偏多因子：日线 EMA 趋势；主要偏空因子：主动买卖比、7 日动量。",
    "label": "中性偏空",
    "score": -0.35,
    "version": "2026-09-25.2",
    "href": "/zh/research/archive/btc-2026-09-13/",
    "sourceHref": "/data/btc-ai/2026-09-13.json",
    "currentHref": "/zh/bitcoin/ai/",
    "capturedAt": "2026-10-05T13:28:08Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.247Z"
  },
  "sourceSha256": "4547ad713f60c547f9b5fab726ae161bb441b319d55d15cdf5976cc631312fa6",
  "document": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "symbol": "BTC",
    "tradingDate": "2026-09-13",
    "window": {
      "start": "2026-09-13T00:00:00Z",
      "end": "2026-09-14T00:00:00Z",
      "timezone": "UTC"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.247Z",
    "market": {
      "open": 77278.73,
      "high": 77450,
      "low": 76500,
      "close": 76842.01,
      "prevClose": 77278.73,
      "change1dPct": -0.565,
      "change3dPct": 0.357,
      "change7dPct": -4.356,
      "change30dPct": 21.887,
      "amplitudePct": 1.229,
      "volumeBtc": 6959.68,
      "quoteVolumeUsdt": 536092213,
      "volume7dChangePct": -5.52,
      "realizedVolDailyPct": 2.48,
      "realizedVolSamples": 30,
      "logRet1d": -0.005667260212669204,
      "logRet3d": 0.0035628575536294743,
      "logRet7d": -0.04453891105525239,
      "high30d": 82300,
      "low30d": 62716,
      "emaTrend": {
        "ema10": 77772.79,
        "ema20": 77024.55,
        "gapPct": 0.9737,
        "state": "golden",
        "lastCross": "golden",
        "lastCrossDate": "2026-08-19",
        "barsSinceCross": 25,
        "barsUsed": 151
      }
    },
    "phases": [
      {
        "key": "early",
        "nameZh": "早段",
        "hours": "00:00–06:00",
        "open": 77278.73,
        "high": 77341.37,
        "low": 77162.36,
        "close": 77322.01,
        "changePct": 0.056,
        "rangePct": 0.232,
        "volumeBtc": 1303.5,
        "volumeSharePct": 18.7
      },
      {
        "key": "morning",
        "nameZh": "早午后",
        "hours": "06:00–12:00",
        "open": 77322.01,
        "high": 77325.82,
        "low": 76500,
        "close": 76792.32,
        "changePct": -0.685,
        "rangePct": 1.068,
        "volumeBtc": 2140.22,
        "volumeSharePct": 30.8
      },
      {
        "key": "afternoon",
        "nameZh": "午后",
        "hours": "12:00–18:00",
        "open": 76792.31,
        "high": 77413.52,
        "low": 76560,
        "close": 77328.94,
        "changePct": 0.699,
        "rangePct": 1.111,
        "volumeBtc": 1920.28,
        "volumeSharePct": 27.6
      },
      {
        "key": "close",
        "nameZh": "收市",
        "hours": "18:00–24:00",
        "open": 77328.94,
        "high": 77450,
        "low": 76622.97,
        "close": 76842.01,
        "changePct": -0.63,
        "rangePct": 1.069,
        "volumeBtc": 1595.67,
        "volumeSharePct": 22.9
      }
    ],
    "derivatives": {
      "topAccountLongShort": {
        "start": 1.7255,
        "end": 1.7533,
        "changePct": 1.61,
        "longPctEnd": 63.68,
        "avg": 1.7468,
        "startAt": "2026-09-13T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-14T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "taker": {
        "ratio": 0.944,
        "buyVol": 32991.91,
        "sellVol": 34947.83,
        "hourlyMax": 1.4176,
        "hourlyMin": 0.5814,
        "last": 0.78,
        "hoursBuyDominant": 10,
        "hours": 24
      },
      "openInterest": {
        "start": 103299.613,
        "end": 104897.336,
        "startUsd": 7980003594,
        "endUsd": 8057025797,
        "change": 1597.723,
        "changePct": 1.547,
        "high": 105016.04,
        "low": 103299.613,
        "startAt": "2026-09-13T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-14T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topPositionLongShort": {
        "start": 2.2324,
        "end": 2.3265,
        "changePct": 4.22,
        "longPctEnd": 69.94,
        "avg": 2.2207,
        "startAt": "2026-09-13T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-14T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "retailLongShort": {
        "start": 1.6539,
        "end": 1.6631,
        "changePct": 0.56,
        "longPctEnd": 62.45,
        "avg": 1.6582,
        "startAt": "2026-09-13T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-14T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "funding": {
        "settlements": [
          {
            "at": "2026-09-13T08:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.0000539
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-13T16:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.0000645
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-14T00:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00007157
          }
        ],
        "openRate": 0.00004788,
        "avg": 0.00006332,
        "last": 0.00007157,
        "prev7dAvg": 0.00005018,
        "prev7dCount": 21,
        "annualizedPct": 6.93
      }
    },
    "sentiment": {
      "fgi": {
        "value": 61,
        "classification": "Greed",
        "classificationZh": "贪婪",
        "prev": 63,
        "prevClassificationZh": "贪婪",
        "change": -2,
        "at": "2026-09-13T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "score": {
      "configVersion": "2026-09-25.2",
      "trendScore": -0.35,
      "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
      "labelZh": "中性偏空",
      "confidence": 0.49,
      "components": {
        "weightedZ": -0.2208,
        "agreement": 0.295,
        "strength": 0.233,
        "coverage": 1
      },
      "factors": [
        {
          "key": "ret1d",
          "nameZh": "当日涨跌",
          "weight": 0.25,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.565,
          "z": -0.229,
          "contribution": -0.092
        },
        {
          "key": "mom3d",
          "nameZh": "3 日动量",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.357,
          "z": 0.083,
          "contribution": 0.013
        },
        {
          "key": "mom7d",
          "nameZh": "7 日动量",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -4.356,
          "z": -0.679,
          "contribution": -0.109
        },
        {
          "key": "emaTrend",
          "nameZh": "日线 EMA 趋势",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.9737,
          "z": 0.393,
          "contribution": 0.063
        },
        {
          "key": "oiChange",
          "nameZh": "持仓量变化",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 1.547,
          "z": -0.516,
          "contribution": -0.083
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingChange",
          "nameZh": "资金费率变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00001314,
          "z": 0.263,
          "contribution": 0.021
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingLevel",
          "nameZh": "资金费率拥挤度",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00006332,
          "z": 0.183,
          "contribution": 0.015
        },
        {
          "key": "taker",
          "nameZh": "主动买卖比",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.944,
          "z": -1.12,
          "contribution": -0.179
        },
        {
          "key": "retailLs",
          "nameZh": "散户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.56,
          "z": -0.111,
          "contribution": -0.009
        },
        {
          "key": "topLs",
          "nameZh": "大户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 1.61,
          "z": 0.322,
          "contribution": 0.026
        },
        {
          "key": "fgiChange",
          "nameZh": "恐惧贪婪指数变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -2,
          "z": -0.25,
          "contribution": -0.02
        }
      ]
    },
    "trendComparison": {
      "today": {
        "date": "2026-09-13",
        "trendScore": -0.35,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "中性偏空",
        "confidence": 0.49
      },
      "yesterday": {
        "date": "2026-09-12",
        "trendScore": -0.09,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "中性偏空",
        "confidence": 0.42
      },
      "delta": -0.26
    },
    "dataSummary": "系统研判「中性偏空」，趋势分 -0.35（置信度 49%），前一日为「中性偏空」（-0.09）。BTC 收于 $76,842.01，日涨跌 -0.56%，日内振幅 1.23%；3 日 +0.36%，7 日 -4.36%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于金叉状态（间距 +0.97%，2026-08-19 金叉，距今 25 天）。衍生品方面，永续持仓量 +1.55%，资金费率日均 +0.0063%（前 7 日 +0.0050%），主动买卖比 0.944，全市场账户多空比 1.654 → 1.663，大户账户多空比 1.726 → 1.753。恐惧贪婪指数 61（贪婪）。主要偏多因子：日线 EMA 趋势；主要偏空因子：主动买卖比、7 日动量。",
    "dataBlocks": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "收盘 $76,842.01，UTC 2026-09-13 00:00 开盘 $77,278.73，日涨跌 -0.56%（前收 $77,278.73）",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日内高 $77,450.00 / 低 $76,500.00，振幅 1.23%；30 日区间 $62,716.00 – $82,300.00",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "动量：3 日 +0.36%，7 日 -4.36%，30 日 +21.89%；30 日日波动率 2.48%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 $77,772.79 / EMA20 $77,024.55，间距 +0.97%（占收盘价），金叉状态（EMA10 在 EMA20 上方）；最近一次交叉：2026-08-19 金叉，距今 25 天",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "现货成交 6,960 BTC（约 5.36 亿 USDT），近 7 日成交量较前 7 日 -5.52%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续持仓量 103,300 → 104,897 BTC（+1.55%，+1,598 BTC），名义价值约 80.57 亿美元",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "资金费率日均 +0.0063%（08:00 +0.0054% / 16:00 +0.0064% / 次日 00:00 +0.0072%），前 7 日均值 +0.0050%，年化约 +6.9%",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "主动买卖比 24h 汇总 0.944（买 32,992 / 卖 34,948 BTC），10/24 小时买方占优",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "全市场账户多空比 1.654 → 1.663（+0.56%）；大户账户多空比 1.726 → 1.753（+1.61%）；大户持仓多空比收于 2.327",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "恐惧贪婪指数 63 → 61（贪婪，-2）",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "早段（UTC 00:00–06:00）：$77,278.73 → $77,322.01，+0.06%，区间 $77,162.36 – $77,341.37，成交 1,304 BTC（占全日 18.7%）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "早午后（UTC 06:00–12:00）：$77,322.01 → $76,792.32，-0.69%，区间 $76,500.00 – $77,325.82，成交 2,140 BTC（占全日 30.8%），全日放量时段",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "午后（UTC 12:00–18:00）：$76,792.31 → $77,328.94，+0.70%，区间 $76,560.00 – $77,413.52，成交 1,920 BTC（占全日 27.6%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "收市（UTC 18:00–24:00）：$77,328.94 → $76,842.01，-0.63%，区间 $76,622.97 – $77,450.00，成交 1,596 BTC（占全日 22.9%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "aiStatus": "pending",
    "outlook": null,
    "analysis": null,
    "sources": {
      "spotDaily": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/klines (1d)",
      "spotPhases": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/klines (6h)",
      "topAccountLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "taker": "https://www.binance.com",
      "openInterest": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topPositionLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "retailLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "funding": "https://www.binance.com",
      "fgi": "https://api.alternative.me/fng/"
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "missing": [],
      "warnings": []
    }
  },
  "aiMetadata": {
    "model": "grok-4.7",
    "generatedAt": null
  }
}