{
  "record": {
    "id": "btc-2026-09-10",
    "asset": "btc",
    "assetName": "比特币",
    "scope": "digital",
    "date": "2026-09-10",
    "dateLabel": "UTC交易日",
    "title": "比特币 · 2026-09-10 日度研判归档",
    "kind": "日度研判",
    "status": "data",
    "statusLabel": "数据与评分 · AI文字未生成",
    "summary": "系统研判「偏空」，趋势分 -0.86（置信度 72%），前一日为「中性偏多」（+0.01）。BTC 收于 $76,568.72，日涨跌 -2.22%，日内振幅 2.68%；3 日 -3.21%，7 日 -5.79%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于金叉状态（间距 +1.75%，2026-08-19 金叉，距今 22 天）。衍生品方面，永续持仓量 +1.67%，资金费率日均 +0.0060%（前 7 日 +0.0047%），主动买卖比 0.902，全市场账户多空比 1.271 → 1.601，大户账户多空比 1.329 → 1.703。恐惧贪婪指数 69（贪婪）。主要偏多因子：大户多空比变化、日线 EMA 趋势；主要偏空因子：当日涨跌、主动买卖比。",
    "label": "偏空",
    "score": -0.86,
    "version": "2026-09-25.2",
    "href": "/zh/research/archive/btc-2026-09-10/",
    "sourceHref": "/data/btc-ai/2026-09-10.json",
    "currentHref": "/zh/bitcoin/ai/",
    "capturedAt": "2026-10-05T13:28:08Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.239Z"
  },
  "sourceSha256": "e41beaed769e2fa06c92a126587209d60da144ed64bf5ec79421c478f4af617a",
  "document": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "symbol": "BTC",
    "tradingDate": "2026-09-10",
    "window": {
      "start": "2026-09-10T00:00:00Z",
      "end": "2026-09-11T00:00:00Z",
      "timezone": "UTC"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.239Z",
    "market": {
      "open": 78306.43,
      "high": 78564.39,
      "low": 76464,
      "close": 76568.72,
      "prevClose": 78306.43,
      "change1dPct": -2.219,
      "change3dPct": -3.215,
      "change7dPct": -5.785,
      "change30dPct": 20.391,
      "amplitudePct": 2.682,
      "volumeBtc": 15320.37,
      "quoteVolumeUsdt": 1188117944,
      "volume7dChangePct": -1.77,
      "realizedVolDailyPct": 2.436,
      "realizedVolSamples": 30,
      "logRet1d": -0.02244108142065981,
      "logRet3d": -0.03267605811523948,
      "logRet7d": -0.05959285922471642,
      "high30d": 82300,
      "low30d": 62535.24,
      "emaTrend": {
        "ema10": 78337.54,
        "ema20": 76997.28,
        "gapPct": 1.7504,
        "state": "golden",
        "lastCross": "golden",
        "lastCrossDate": "2026-08-19",
        "barsSinceCross": 22,
        "barsUsed": 151
      }
    },
    "phases": [
      {
        "key": "early",
        "nameZh": "早段",
        "hours": "00:00–06:00",
        "open": 78306.43,
        "high": 78564.39,
        "low": 77952,
        "close": 78536.71,
        "changePct": 0.294,
        "rangePct": 0.782,
        "volumeBtc": 2652.88,
        "volumeSharePct": 17.3
      },
      {
        "key": "morning",
        "nameZh": "早午后",
        "hours": "06:00–12:00",
        "open": 78536.71,
        "high": 78542.05,
        "low": 77688,
        "close": 77840.8,
        "changePct": -0.886,
        "rangePct": 1.087,
        "volumeBtc": 3284.51,
        "volumeSharePct": 21.4
      },
      {
        "key": "afternoon",
        "nameZh": "午后",
        "hours": "12:00–18:00",
        "open": 77840.64,
        "high": 77959.2,
        "low": 76676.07,
        "close": 77328.72,
        "changePct": -0.658,
        "rangePct": 1.648,
        "volumeBtc": 7205.73,
        "volumeSharePct": 47
      },
      {
        "key": "close",
        "nameZh": "收市",
        "hours": "18:00–24:00",
        "open": 77328.72,
        "high": 77347.45,
        "low": 76464,
        "close": 76568.72,
        "changePct": -0.983,
        "rangePct": 1.142,
        "volumeBtc": 2177.24,
        "volumeSharePct": 14.2
      }
    ],
    "derivatives": {
      "topAccountLongShort": {
        "start": 1.3294,
        "end": 1.7027,
        "changePct": 28.08,
        "longPctEnd": 63,
        "avg": 1.5822,
        "startAt": "2026-09-10T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-11T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "funding": {
        "settlements": [
          {
            "at": "2026-09-10T08:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00007869
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-10T16:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00007199
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-11T00:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00003006
          }
        ],
        "openRate": 0.00003562,
        "avg": 0.00006025,
        "last": 0.00003006,
        "prev7dAvg": 0.0000466,
        "prev7dCount": 21,
        "annualizedPct": 6.6
      },
      "retailLongShort": {
        "start": 1.2707,
        "end": 1.6008,
        "changePct": 25.98,
        "longPctEnd": 61.55,
        "avg": 1.506,
        "startAt": "2026-09-10T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-11T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "openInterest": {
        "start": 105105.968,
        "end": 106858.934,
        "startUsd": 8227209025,
        "endUsd": 8178512629,
        "change": 1752.966,
        "changePct": 1.668,
        "high": 107995.55,
        "low": 104755.062,
        "startAt": "2026-09-10T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-11T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "taker": {
        "ratio": 0.9016,
        "buyVol": 67645.87,
        "sellVol": 75032.57,
        "hourlyMax": 1.3455,
        "hourlyMin": 0.546,
        "last": 0.7029,
        "hoursBuyDominant": 13,
        "hours": 24
      },
      "topPositionLongShort": {
        "start": 2.1911,
        "end": 2.1224,
        "changePct": -3.14,
        "longPctEnd": 67.97,
        "avg": 2.1736,
        "startAt": "2026-09-10T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-11T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      }
    },
    "sentiment": {
      "fgi": {
        "value": 69,
        "classification": "Greed",
        "classificationZh": "贪婪",
        "prev": 66,
        "prevClassificationZh": "贪婪",
        "change": 3,
        "at": "2026-09-10T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "score": {
      "configVersion": "2026-09-25.2",
      "trendScore": -0.86,
      "label": "lean_bear",
      "labelZh": "偏空",
      "confidence": 0.72,
      "components": {
        "weightedZ": -0.5383,
        "agreement": 0.606,
        "strength": 0.573,
        "coverage": 1
      },
      "factors": [
        {
          "key": "ret1d",
          "nameZh": "当日涨跌",
          "weight": 0.25,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -2.219,
          "z": -0.921,
          "contribution": -0.368
        },
        {
          "key": "mom3d",
          "nameZh": "3 日动量",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -3.215,
          "z": -0.774,
          "contribution": -0.124
        },
        {
          "key": "mom7d",
          "nameZh": "7 日动量",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -5.785,
          "z": -0.925,
          "contribution": -0.148
        },
        {
          "key": "emaTrend",
          "nameZh": "日线 EMA 趋势",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 1.7504,
          "z": 0.719,
          "contribution": 0.115
        },
        {
          "key": "oiChange",
          "nameZh": "持仓量变化",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 1.668,
          "z": -0.556,
          "contribution": -0.089
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingChange",
          "nameZh": "资金费率变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00001365,
          "z": 0.273,
          "contribution": 0.022
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingLevel",
          "nameZh": "资金费率拥挤度",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00006025,
          "z": 0.199,
          "contribution": 0.016
        },
        {
          "key": "taker",
          "nameZh": "主动买卖比",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.9016,
          "z": -1.968,
          "contribution": -0.315
        },
        {
          "key": "retailLs",
          "nameZh": "散户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 25.98,
          "z": -3,
          "contribution": -0.24
        },
        {
          "key": "topLs",
          "nameZh": "大户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 28.08,
          "z": 3,
          "contribution": 0.24
        },
        {
          "key": "fgiChange",
          "nameZh": "恐惧贪婪指数变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 3,
          "z": 0.375,
          "contribution": 0.03
        }
      ]
    },
    "trendComparison": {
      "today": {
        "date": "2026-09-10",
        "trendScore": -0.86,
        "label": "lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "偏空",
        "confidence": 0.72
      },
      "yesterday": {
        "date": "2026-09-09",
        "trendScore": 0.01,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bull",
        "labelZh": "中性偏多",
        "confidence": 0.39
      },
      "delta": -0.87
    },
    "dataSummary": "系统研判「偏空」，趋势分 -0.86（置信度 72%），前一日为「中性偏多」（+0.01）。BTC 收于 $76,568.72，日涨跌 -2.22%，日内振幅 2.68%；3 日 -3.21%，7 日 -5.79%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于金叉状态（间距 +1.75%，2026-08-19 金叉，距今 22 天）。衍生品方面，永续持仓量 +1.67%，资金费率日均 +0.0060%（前 7 日 +0.0047%），主动买卖比 0.902，全市场账户多空比 1.271 → 1.601，大户账户多空比 1.329 → 1.703。恐惧贪婪指数 69（贪婪）。主要偏多因子：大户多空比变化、日线 EMA 趋势；主要偏空因子：当日涨跌、主动买卖比。",
    "dataBlocks": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "收盘 $76,568.72，UTC 2026-09-10 00:00 开盘 $78,306.43，日涨跌 -2.22%（前收 $78,306.43）",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日内高 $78,564.39 / 低 $76,464.00，振幅 2.68%；30 日区间 $62,535.24 – $82,300.00",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "动量：3 日 -3.21%，7 日 -5.79%，30 日 +20.39%；30 日日波动率 2.44%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 $78,337.54 / EMA20 $76,997.28，间距 +1.75%（占收盘价），金叉状态（EMA10 在 EMA20 上方）；最近一次交叉：2026-08-19 金叉，距今 22 天",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "现货成交 15,320 BTC（约 11.88 亿 USDT），近 7 日成交量较前 7 日 -1.77%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续持仓量 105,106 → 106,859 BTC（+1.67%，+1,753 BTC），名义价值约 81.79 亿美元",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "资金费率日均 +0.0060%（08:00 +0.0079% / 16:00 +0.0072% / 次日 00:00 +0.0030%），前 7 日均值 +0.0047%，年化约 +6.6%",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "主动买卖比 24h 汇总 0.902（买 67,646 / 卖 75,033 BTC），13/24 小时买方占优",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "全市场账户多空比 1.271 → 1.601（+25.98%）；大户账户多空比 1.329 → 1.703（+28.08%）；大户持仓多空比收于 2.122",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "恐惧贪婪指数 66 → 69（贪婪，+3）",
            "highlight": "green"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "早段（UTC 00:00–06:00）：$78,306.43 → $78,536.71，+0.29%，区间 $77,952.00 – $78,564.39，成交 2,653 BTC（占全日 17.3%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "早午后（UTC 06:00–12:00）：$78,536.71 → $77,840.80，-0.89%，区间 $77,688.00 – $78,542.05，成交 3,285 BTC（占全日 21.4%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "午后（UTC 12:00–18:00）：$77,840.64 → $77,328.72，-0.66%，区间 $76,676.07 – $77,959.20，成交 7,206 BTC（占全日 47%），全日放量时段",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "收市（UTC 18:00–24:00）：$77,328.72 → $76,568.72，-0.98%，区间 $76,464.00 – $77,347.45，成交 2,177 BTC（占全日 14.2%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "aiStatus": "pending",
    "outlook": null,
    "analysis": null,
    "sources": {
      "spotDaily": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/klines (1d)",
      "spotPhases": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/klines (6h)",
      "topAccountLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "funding": "https://www.binance.com",
      "retailLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "openInterest": "https://www.binance.com",
      "taker": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topPositionLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "fgi": "https://api.alternative.me/fng/"
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "missing": [],
      "warnings": []
    }
  },
  "aiMetadata": {
    "model": "grok-4.7",
    "generatedAt": null
  }
}