{
  "record": {
    "id": "btc-2026-08-31",
    "asset": "btc",
    "assetName": "比特币",
    "scope": "digital",
    "date": "2026-08-31",
    "dateLabel": "UTC交易日",
    "title": "比特币 · 2026-08-31 日度研判归档",
    "kind": "日度研判",
    "status": "data",
    "statusLabel": "数据与评分 · AI文字未生成",
    "summary": "系统研判「偏多」，趋势分 +0.50（置信度 55%），前一日为「中性偏空」（-0.10）。BTC 收于 $78,581.29，日涨跌 +1.16%，日内振幅 2.39%；3 日 +0.94%，7 日 -0.52%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于金叉状态（间距 +3.87%，2026-08-19 金叉，距今 12 天）。衍生品方面，永续持仓量 +1.56%，资金费率日均 +0.0095%（前 7 日 +0.0082%），主动买卖比 0.989，全市场账户多空比 1.081 → 0.995，大户账户多空比 1.158 → 1.056。恐惧贪婪指数 62（贪婪）。主要偏多因子：日线 EMA 趋势、当日涨跌；主要偏空因子：大户多空比变化、恐惧贪婪指数变化。",
    "label": "偏多",
    "score": 0.5,
    "version": "2026-09-25.2",
    "href": "/zh/research/archive/btc-2026-08-31/",
    "sourceHref": "/data/btc-ai/2026-08-31.json",
    "currentHref": "/zh/bitcoin/ai/",
    "capturedAt": "2026-10-05T13:28:08Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.213Z"
  },
  "sourceSha256": "afed048b680af2077582fe8baf26272e2d50525986255b5271e24aa083efa464",
  "document": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "symbol": "BTC",
    "tradingDate": "2026-08-31",
    "window": {
      "start": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "end": "2026-09-01T00:00:00Z",
      "timezone": "UTC"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.213Z",
    "market": {
      "open": 77682,
      "high": 79250,
      "low": 77392,
      "close": 78581.29,
      "prevClose": 77682,
      "change1dPct": 1.158,
      "change3dPct": 0.945,
      "change7dPct": -0.521,
      "change30dPct": 25.082,
      "amplitudePct": 2.392,
      "volumeBtc": 15303.91,
      "quoteVolumeUsdt": 1198158182,
      "volume7dChangePct": -42.31,
      "realizedVolDailyPct": 2.209,
      "realizedVolSamples": 30,
      "logRet1d": 0.011510060081940028,
      "logRet3d": 0.009402784252338068,
      "logRet7d": -0.005222445717295871,
      "high30d": 81478.87,
      "low30d": 62300,
      "emaTrend": {
        "ema10": 77087.91,
        "ema20": 74045.91,
        "gapPct": 3.8712,
        "state": "golden",
        "lastCross": "golden",
        "lastCrossDate": "2026-08-19",
        "barsSinceCross": 12,
        "barsUsed": 151
      }
    },
    "phases": [
      {
        "key": "early",
        "nameZh": "早段",
        "hours": "00:00–06:00",
        "open": 77682,
        "high": 78185.89,
        "low": 77392,
        "close": 78016,
        "changePct": 0.43,
        "rangePct": 1.022,
        "volumeBtc": 3192.97,
        "volumeSharePct": 20.9
      },
      {
        "key": "morning",
        "nameZh": "早午后",
        "hours": "06:00–12:00",
        "open": 78016.01,
        "high": 78802,
        "low": 77864.16,
        "close": 78315.43,
        "changePct": 0.384,
        "rangePct": 1.202,
        "volumeBtc": 4150.64,
        "volumeSharePct": 27.1
      },
      {
        "key": "afternoon",
        "nameZh": "午后",
        "hours": "12:00–18:00",
        "open": 78315.43,
        "high": 79019.86,
        "low": 77675.04,
        "close": 78897.36,
        "changePct": 0.743,
        "rangePct": 1.717,
        "volumeBtc": 5569.17,
        "volumeSharePct": 36.4
      },
      {
        "key": "close",
        "nameZh": "收市",
        "hours": "18:00–24:00",
        "open": 78897.35,
        "high": 79250,
        "low": 78405.01,
        "close": 78581.29,
        "changePct": -0.401,
        "rangePct": 1.071,
        "volumeBtc": 2391.13,
        "volumeSharePct": 15.6
      }
    ],
    "derivatives": {
      "taker": {
        "ratio": 0.9892,
        "buyVol": 64350.58,
        "sellVol": 65052.9,
        "hourlyMax": 1.2669,
        "hourlyMin": 0.5906,
        "last": 0.9948,
        "hoursBuyDominant": 9,
        "hours": 24
      },
      "topAccountLongShort": {
        "start": 1.158,
        "end": 1.0563,
        "changePct": -8.78,
        "longPctEnd": 51.37,
        "avg": 1.1162,
        "startAt": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-01T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "openInterest": {
        "start": 106319.885,
        "end": 107978.168,
        "startUsd": 8256337157,
        "endUsd": 8481631107,
        "change": 1658.283,
        "changePct": 1.56,
        "high": 107978.168,
        "low": 106203.88,
        "startAt": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-01T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "funding": {
        "settlements": [
          {
            "at": "2026-08-31T08:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-08-31T16:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-09-01T00:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00008482
          }
        ],
        "openRate": 0.00007271,
        "avg": 0.00009494,
        "last": 0.00008482,
        "prev7dAvg": 0.00008219,
        "prev7dCount": 21,
        "annualizedPct": 10.4
      },
      "topPositionLongShort": {
        "start": 2.0586,
        "end": 2.0977,
        "changePct": 1.9,
        "longPctEnd": 67.72,
        "avg": 2.0835,
        "startAt": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-01T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "retailLongShort": {
        "start": 1.0812,
        "end": 0.9948,
        "changePct": -7.99,
        "longPctEnd": 49.87,
        "avg": 1.0596,
        "startAt": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-09-01T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      }
    },
    "sentiment": {
      "fgi": {
        "value": 62,
        "classification": "Greed",
        "classificationZh": "贪婪",
        "prev": 69,
        "prevClassificationZh": "贪婪",
        "change": -7,
        "at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "score": {
      "configVersion": "2026-09-25.2",
      "trendScore": 0.5,
      "label": "lean_bull",
      "labelZh": "偏多",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "components": {
        "weightedZ": 0.3139,
        "agreement": 0.371,
        "strength": 0.333,
        "coverage": 1
      },
      "factors": [
        {
          "key": "ret1d",
          "nameZh": "当日涨跌",
          "weight": 0.25,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 1.158,
          "z": 0.521,
          "contribution": 0.208
        },
        {
          "key": "mom3d",
          "nameZh": "3 日动量",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.945,
          "z": 0.246,
          "contribution": 0.039
        },
        {
          "key": "mom7d",
          "nameZh": "7 日动量",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.521,
          "z": -0.089,
          "contribution": -0.014
        },
        {
          "key": "emaTrend",
          "nameZh": "日线 EMA 趋势",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 3.8712,
          "z": 1.752,
          "contribution": 0.28
        },
        {
          "key": "oiChange",
          "nameZh": "持仓量变化",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 1.56,
          "z": 0.52,
          "contribution": 0.083
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingChange",
          "nameZh": "资金费率变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00001275,
          "z": 0.255,
          "contribution": 0.02
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingLevel",
          "nameZh": "资金费率拥挤度",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.00009494,
          "z": 0.025,
          "contribution": 0.002
        },
        {
          "key": "taker",
          "nameZh": "主动买卖比",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.9892,
          "z": -0.216,
          "contribution": -0.035
        },
        {
          "key": "retailLs",
          "nameZh": "散户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -7.99,
          "z": 1.598,
          "contribution": 0.128
        },
        {
          "key": "topLs",
          "nameZh": "大户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -8.78,
          "z": -1.756,
          "contribution": -0.14
        },
        {
          "key": "fgiChange",
          "nameZh": "恐惧贪婪指数变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -7,
          "z": -0.875,
          "contribution": -0.07
        }
      ]
    },
    "trendComparison": {
      "today": {
        "date": "2026-08-31",
        "trendScore": 0.5,
        "label": "lean_bull",
        "labelZh": "偏多",
        "confidence": 0.55
      },
      "yesterday": {
        "date": "2026-08-30",
        "trendScore": -0.1,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "中性偏空",
        "confidence": 0.46
      },
      "delta": 0.6
    },
    "dataSummary": "系统研判「偏多」，趋势分 +0.50（置信度 55%），前一日为「中性偏空」（-0.10）。BTC 收于 $78,581.29，日涨跌 +1.16%，日内振幅 2.39%；3 日 +0.94%，7 日 -0.52%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于金叉状态（间距 +3.87%，2026-08-19 金叉，距今 12 天）。衍生品方面，永续持仓量 +1.56%，资金费率日均 +0.0095%（前 7 日 +0.0082%），主动买卖比 0.989，全市场账户多空比 1.081 → 0.995，大户账户多空比 1.158 → 1.056。恐惧贪婪指数 62（贪婪）。主要偏多因子：日线 EMA 趋势、当日涨跌；主要偏空因子：大户多空比变化、恐惧贪婪指数变化。",
    "dataBlocks": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "收盘 $78,581.29，UTC 2026-08-31 00:00 开盘 $77,682.00，日涨跌 +1.16%（前收 $77,682.00）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "日内高 $79,250.00 / 低 $77,392.00，振幅 2.39%；30 日区间 $62,300.00 – $81,478.87",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "动量：3 日 +0.94%，7 日 -0.52%，30 日 +25.08%；30 日日波动率 2.21%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 $77,087.91 / EMA20 $74,045.91，间距 +3.87%（占收盘价），金叉状态（EMA10 在 EMA20 上方）；最近一次交叉：2026-08-19 金叉，距今 12 天",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "现货成交 15,304 BTC（约 11.98 亿 USDT），近 7 日成交量较前 7 日 -42.31%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续持仓量 106,320 → 107,978 BTC（+1.56%，+1,658 BTC），名义价值约 84.82 亿美元",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "资金费率日均 +0.0095%（08:00 +0.0100% / 16:00 +0.0100% / 次日 00:00 +0.0085%），前 7 日均值 +0.0082%，年化约 +10.4%",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "主动买卖比 24h 汇总 0.989（买 64,351 / 卖 65,053 BTC），9/24 小时买方占优",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "全市场账户多空比 1.081 → 0.995（-7.99%）；大户账户多空比 1.158 → 1.056（-8.78%）；大户持仓多空比收于 2.098",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "恐惧贪婪指数 69 → 62（贪婪，-7）",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "早段（UTC 00:00–06:00）：$77,682.00 → $78,016.00，+0.43%，区间 $77,392.00 – $78,185.89，成交 3,193 BTC（占全日 20.9%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "早午后（UTC 06:00–12:00）：$78,016.01 → $78,315.43，+0.38%，区间 $77,864.16 – $78,802.00，成交 4,151 BTC（占全日 27.1%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "午后（UTC 12:00–18:00）：$78,315.43 → $78,897.36，+0.74%，区间 $77,675.04 – $79,019.86，成交 5,569 BTC（占全日 36.4%），全日放量时段",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "收市（UTC 18:00–24:00）：$78,897.35 → $78,581.29，-0.40%，区间 $78,405.01 – $79,250.00，成交 2,391 BTC（占全日 15.6%）",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "aiStatus": "pending",
    "outlook": null,
    "analysis": null,
    "sources": {
      "spotDaily": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/klines (1d)",
      "spotPhases": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/klines (6h)",
      "taker": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topAccountLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "openInterest": "https://www.binance.com",
      "funding": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topPositionLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "retailLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "fgi": "https://api.alternative.me/fng/"
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "missing": [],
      "warnings": []
    }
  },
  "aiMetadata": {
    "model": "grok-4.7",
    "generatedAt": null
  }
}