{
  "record": {
    "id": "btc-2026-08-30",
    "asset": "btc",
    "assetName": "比特币",
    "scope": "digital",
    "date": "2026-08-30",
    "dateLabel": "UTC交易日",
    "title": "比特币 · 2026-08-30 日度研判归档",
    "kind": "日度研判",
    "status": "data",
    "statusLabel": "数据与评分 · AI文字未生成",
    "summary": "系统研判「中性偏空」，趋势分 -0.10（置信度 46%），前一日为「偏多」（+0.54）。BTC 收于 $77,682.00，日涨跌 -0.70%，日内振幅 3.07%；3 日 -3.20%，7 日 -0.07%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于金叉状态（间距 +4.10%，2026-08-19 金叉，距今 11 天）。衍生品方面，永续持仓量 -1.26%，资金费率日均 +0.0081%（前 7 日 +0.0085%），主动买卖比 0.919，全市场账户多空比 1.188 → 1.081，大户账户多空比 1.229 → 1.158。恐惧贪婪指数 69（贪婪）。主要偏多因子：日线 EMA 趋势、散户多空比变化；主要偏空因子：主动买卖比、3 日动量。",
    "label": "中性偏空",
    "score": -0.1,
    "version": "2026-09-25.2",
    "href": "/zh/research/archive/btc-2026-08-30/",
    "sourceHref": "/data/btc-ai/2026-08-30.json",
    "currentHref": "/zh/bitcoin/ai/",
    "capturedAt": "2026-10-05T13:28:08Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.211Z"
  },
  "sourceSha256": "e09980e5baf8c343c78dc1ffbeea803c918cb8f2588e138544310ab2b0808676",
  "document": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "symbol": "BTC",
    "tradingDate": "2026-08-30",
    "window": {
      "start": "2026-08-30T00:00:00Z",
      "end": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "timezone": "UTC"
    },
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T14:54:20.211Z",
    "market": {
      "open": 78230,
      "high": 79400,
      "low": 77000,
      "close": 77682,
      "prevClose": 78230,
      "change1dPct": -0.7,
      "change3dPct": -3.199,
      "change7dPct": -0.067,
      "change30dPct": 23.525,
      "amplitudePct": 3.068,
      "volumeBtc": 9085.42,
      "quoteVolumeUsdt": 712506540,
      "volume7dChangePct": -28.09,
      "realizedVolDailyPct": 2.296,
      "realizedVolSamples": 30,
      "logRet1d": -0.007029635392424053,
      "logRet3d": -0.032517958047004705,
      "logRet7d": -0.0006691717962169872,
      "high30d": 81478.87,
      "low30d": 62275,
      "emaTrend": {
        "ema10": 76756.05,
        "ema20": 73568.5,
        "gapPct": 4.1033,
        "state": "golden",
        "lastCross": "golden",
        "lastCrossDate": "2026-08-19",
        "barsSinceCross": 11,
        "barsUsed": 151
      }
    },
    "phases": [
      {
        "key": "early",
        "nameZh": "早段",
        "hours": "00:00–06:00",
        "open": 78230,
        "high": 78330,
        "low": 77990,
        "close": 78127.71,
        "changePct": -0.131,
        "rangePct": 0.435,
        "volumeBtc": 1193.13,
        "volumeSharePct": 13.1
      },
      {
        "key": "morning",
        "nameZh": "早午后",
        "hours": "06:00–12:00",
        "open": 78127.72,
        "high": 78310.71,
        "low": 77962.49,
        "close": 78166,
        "changePct": 0.049,
        "rangePct": 0.446,
        "volumeBtc": 995.48,
        "volumeSharePct": 11
      },
      {
        "key": "afternoon",
        "nameZh": "午后",
        "hours": "12:00–18:00",
        "open": 78165.99,
        "high": 79400,
        "low": 78165.99,
        "close": 79021.02,
        "changePct": 1.094,
        "rangePct": 1.579,
        "volumeBtc": 3424.37,
        "volumeSharePct": 37.7
      },
      {
        "key": "close",
        "nameZh": "收市",
        "hours": "18:00–24:00",
        "open": 79021.02,
        "high": 79181.99,
        "low": 77000,
        "close": 77682,
        "changePct": -1.695,
        "rangePct": 2.761,
        "volumeBtc": 3472.45,
        "volumeSharePct": 38.2
      }
    ],
    "derivatives": {
      "topAccountLongShort": {
        "start": 1.2287,
        "end": 1.158,
        "changePct": -5.75,
        "longPctEnd": 53.66,
        "avg": 1.1644,
        "startAt": "2026-08-30T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "topPositionLongShort": {
        "start": 2.0826,
        "end": 2.0586,
        "changePct": -1.15,
        "longPctEnd": 67.31,
        "avg": 2.0486,
        "startAt": "2026-08-30T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "openInterest": {
        "start": 107673.021,
        "end": 106319.885,
        "startUsd": 8420208319,
        "endUsd": 8256337157,
        "change": -1353.136,
        "changePct": -1.257,
        "high": 108582.302,
        "low": 106319.885,
        "startAt": "2026-08-30T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      },
      "taker": {
        "ratio": 0.919,
        "buyVol": 43045.05,
        "sellVol": 46841.27,
        "hourlyMax": 1.9899,
        "hourlyMin": 0.5287,
        "last": 0.7539,
        "hoursBuyDominant": 8,
        "hours": 24
      },
      "funding": {
        "settlements": [
          {
            "at": "2026-08-30T08:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-08-30T16:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00007058
          },
          {
            "at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
            "rate": 0.00007271
          }
        ],
        "openRate": 0.00008283,
        "avg": 0.0000811,
        "last": 0.00007271,
        "prev7dAvg": 0.00008489,
        "prev7dCount": 21,
        "annualizedPct": 8.88
      },
      "retailLongShort": {
        "start": 1.1877,
        "end": 1.0812,
        "changePct": -8.97,
        "longPctEnd": 51.95,
        "avg": 1.1099,
        "startAt": "2026-08-30T00:00:00Z",
        "endAt": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
        "partial": false
      }
    },
    "sentiment": {
      "fgi": {
        "value": 69,
        "classification": "Greed",
        "classificationZh": "贪婪",
        "prev": 68,
        "prevClassificationZh": "贪婪",
        "change": 1,
        "at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "score": {
      "configVersion": "2026-09-25.2",
      "trendScore": -0.1,
      "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
      "labelZh": "中性偏空",
      "confidence": 0.46,
      "components": {
        "weightedZ": -0.0616,
        "agreement": 0.313,
        "strength": 0.067,
        "coverage": 1
      },
      "factors": [
        {
          "key": "ret1d",
          "nameZh": "当日涨跌",
          "weight": 0.25,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.7,
          "z": -0.306,
          "contribution": -0.122
        },
        {
          "key": "mom3d",
          "nameZh": "3 日动量",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -3.199,
          "z": -0.818,
          "contribution": -0.131
        },
        {
          "key": "mom7d",
          "nameZh": "7 日动量",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.067,
          "z": -0.011,
          "contribution": -0.002
        },
        {
          "key": "emaTrend",
          "nameZh": "日线 EMA 趋势",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 4.1033,
          "z": 1.787,
          "contribution": 0.286
        },
        {
          "key": "oiChange",
          "nameZh": "持仓量变化",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -1.257,
          "z": 0.419,
          "contribution": 0.067
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingChange",
          "nameZh": "资金费率变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -0.00000379,
          "z": -0.076,
          "contribution": -0.006
        },
        {
          "key": "fundingLevel",
          "nameZh": "资金费率拥挤度",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.0000811,
          "z": 0.094,
          "contribution": 0.008
        },
        {
          "key": "taker",
          "nameZh": "主动买卖比",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 0.919,
          "z": -1.62,
          "contribution": -0.259
        },
        {
          "key": "retailLs",
          "nameZh": "散户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -8.97,
          "z": 1.793,
          "contribution": 0.143
        },
        {
          "key": "topLs",
          "nameZh": "大户多空比变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": -5.75,
          "z": -1.151,
          "contribution": -0.092
        },
        {
          "key": "fgiChange",
          "nameZh": "恐惧贪婪指数变化",
          "weight": 0.05,
          "available": true,
          "raw": 1,
          "z": 0.125,
          "contribution": 0.01
        }
      ]
    },
    "trendComparison": {
      "today": {
        "date": "2026-08-30",
        "trendScore": -0.1,
        "label": "neutral_lean_bear",
        "labelZh": "中性偏空",
        "confidence": 0.46
      },
      "yesterday": {
        "date": "2026-08-29",
        "trendScore": 0.54,
        "label": "lean_bull",
        "labelZh": "偏多",
        "confidence": 0.55
      },
      "delta": -0.64
    },
    "dataSummary": "系统研判「中性偏空」，趋势分 -0.10（置信度 46%），前一日为「偏多」（+0.54）。BTC 收于 $77,682.00，日涨跌 -0.70%，日内振幅 3.07%；3 日 -3.20%，7 日 -0.07%。日线 EMA10/EMA20 处于金叉状态（间距 +4.10%，2026-08-19 金叉，距今 11 天）。衍生品方面，永续持仓量 -1.26%，资金费率日均 +0.0081%（前 7 日 +0.0085%），主动买卖比 0.919，全市场账户多空比 1.188 → 1.081，大户账户多空比 1.229 → 1.158。恐惧贪婪指数 69（贪婪）。主要偏多因子：日线 EMA 趋势、散户多空比变化；主要偏空因子：主动买卖比、3 日动量。",
    "dataBlocks": [
      {
        "title": "关键数据",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "收盘 $77,682.00，UTC 2026-08-30 00:00 开盘 $78,230.00，日涨跌 -0.70%（前收 $78,230.00）",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日内高 $79,400.00 / 低 $77,000.00，振幅 3.07%；30 日区间 $62,275.00 – $81,478.87",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "动量：3 日 -3.20%，7 日 -0.07%，30 日 +23.52%；30 日日波动率 2.30%",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "日线 EMA10 $76,756.05 / EMA20 $73,568.50，间距 +4.10%（占收盘价），金叉状态（EMA10 在 EMA20 上方）；最近一次交叉：2026-08-19 金叉，距今 11 天",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "现货成交 9,085 BTC（约 7.13 亿 USDT），近 7 日成交量较前 7 日 -28.09%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "永续持仓量 107,673 → 106,320 BTC（-1.26%，-1,353 BTC），名义价值约 82.56 亿美元",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "资金费率日均 +0.0081%（08:00 +0.0100% / 16:00 +0.0071% / 次日 00:00 +0.0073%），前 7 日均值 +0.0085%，年化约 +8.9%",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "主动买卖比 24h 汇总 0.919（买 43,045 / 卖 46,841 BTC），8/24 小时买方占优",
            "highlight": "red"
          },
          {
            "text": "全市场账户多空比 1.188 → 1.081（-8.97%）；大户账户多空比 1.229 → 1.158（-5.75%）；大户持仓多空比收于 2.059",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "恐惧贪婪指数 68 → 69（贪婪，+1）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "24H 行情复盘",
        "items": [
          {
            "text": "早段（UTC 00:00–06:00）：$78,230.00 → $78,127.71，-0.13%，区间 $77,990.00 – $78,330.00，成交 1,193 BTC（占全日 13.1%）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "早午后（UTC 06:00–12:00）：$78,127.72 → $78,166.00，+0.05%，区间 $77,962.49 – $78,310.71，成交 995 BTC（占全日 11%）",
            "highlight": "grey"
          },
          {
            "text": "午后（UTC 12:00–18:00）：$78,165.99 → $79,021.02，+1.09%，区间 $78,165.99 – $79,400.00，成交 3,424 BTC（占全日 37.7%）",
            "highlight": "green"
          },
          {
            "text": "收市（UTC 18:00–24:00）：$79,021.02 → $77,682.00，-1.70%，区间 $77,000.00 – $79,181.99，成交 3,472 BTC（占全日 38.2%），全日放量时段",
            "highlight": "red"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "aiStatus": "pending",
    "outlook": null,
    "analysis": null,
    "sources": {
      "spotDaily": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/klines (1d)",
      "spotPhases": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/klines (6h)",
      "topAccountLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "topPositionLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "openInterest": "https://www.binance.com",
      "taker": "https://www.binance.com",
      "funding": "https://www.binance.com",
      "retailLongShort": "https://www.binance.com",
      "fgi": "https://api.alternative.me/fng/"
    },
    "dataQuality": {
      "missing": [],
      "warnings": []
    }
  },
  "aiMetadata": {
    "model": "grok-4.7",
    "generatedAt": null
  }
}